NBA Starting 5: Tuesday, January 31st
The Starting 5 Series will provide Grinders with a quick look at the day’s top positional plays, analyzed through the lens of our Daily Research Tools.
Today, we’ll take a closer look at a Premium tool and use a GPP focus, which is great for analyzing things with the Projected Ownership Tool.
Chris Gimino spends a lot of time crafting his projections, and he does a great job with it. Of course, in tournaments, we are always looking for guys with upside who might be low-owned on a particular night. Those contrarian picks are often the key to success in a GPP setting!
With that, let’s see what this Tuesday slate has to offer. This article will be based on FanDuel ownership projections.
Point Guard – Brandon Jennings ($5,600 – 10% projected ownership on FanDuel)
Derrick Rose has been ruled out for the Knicks tonight, so Jennings should once again start and play heavy minutes for the team. His now elevated price point is projected to keep his ownership low, which makes Jennings more appealing from a GPP perspective. He does have some per-minute fantasy upside, though he will likely see a small dip in usage as part of the first unit.
The Knicks/Wizards contest sets up as a potentially high-scoring affair tonight, so don’t be afraid to give Jennings a look despite the price. There are plenty of good point guards on the board, so finding a high upside play at a low ownership and a reasonable price sounds like a good plan to me!
Shooting Guard – Bradley Beal ($7,000 – 17.5% projected ownership on FanDuel)
On the other side of that game, you do have to like some of the Wizards this evening. Don’t forget that the Knicks are coming off a quadruple overtime game the other day against Atlanta, and this is their first game since that one. You could very well see some tired legs for the New Yorkers here, and that will show up on the defensive end of the floor. It spells trouble if the Knicks are a step slow on the defensive end against a quality offense like the Wizards.
Beal comes at a nice discount from James Harden and is projected to be reasonably owned at 17.5%, so I don’t mind the pivot if you can’t quite squeeze Harden into your lineups this evening.
Small Forward – Evan Turner ($4,800 – 37.5% projected ownership on FanDuel)
Welcome to Evan Turner chalk night. I post this not as a ringing endorsement for Turner, but as an eye opener at just how popular Turner is going to be in tournaments tonight. We all know that Evan Turner is very capable of busting right in front of our very eyes. If you want to eat the chalk, I have no qualms about playing Turner. He is starting now, his minutes have been steady in the mid-30s, and the price tag is fair.
Turner probably does belong on cash game rosters this evening. However, if you are looking to play the ownership game in GPPs, perhaps a pivot to a guy like Allen Crabbe (1% ownership projection) or Al-Farouq Aminu is the way to go.
Power Forward – LaMarcus Aldridge ($7,600 – 12.5% projected ownership on FanDuel)
If you want to grab a high upside target at a low ownership, Aldridge is certainly capable of being that guy. He hasn’t been great lately, which is somewhat surprising given the absence of Pau Gasol. CourtIQ tells us that Aldridge sees a 1.6% bump in usage and scores around five extra fantasy points per 36 minutes with Gasol off the floor, so a big game is coming.
This could be the perfect spot to pounce in a tournament setting, as there are several power forwards projected ahead of him on the ownership scale – including Marvin Williams.
Center – Ivica Zubac ($3,900 – 12.5% projected ownership on FanDuel)
ZUBAC mania is upon us! The Lakers continue to give their young big man some run, and he has really impressed over the last handful of games. In my opinion, the center position comes down to either spending up for Cousins or going cheap with a guy like Zubac. Both players have reasonably low ownership projections, as you only get to take one center on FanDuel.
Cousins is an obvious elite target, but don’t sleep on Zubac here. He will also allow you the flexibility to fit in some studs at the other roster positions tonight.