NBA Starting 5: Wednesday, February 8th
Tonight we have a monster 12-game slate to attack. We have only one team (Brooklyn) on the second half of a back-to-back. There are also plenty of injury situations to monitor, so I envision another mad scramble before lineups lock.
Today, I’m going to continue to discuss how I can quickly glance at two of the Research Tools available to identify good situations for my starting five. First, I always browse the Salary Charts tool to see if I can identify some players that DraftKings has priced lower than FanDuel so I can take advantage of the better pricing — this is especially important with pricing becoming more dynamic on each site. I will then click the Advanced Player Stats tool and focus on their USG%. It’s also nice to glance the peripheral stat percentages available to see if I can expect peripheral points.
Point Guard: Goran Dragic, Miami Heat, $7,500
Dion Waiters (28.6% True Usage) is doubtful for tonight’s game against the Bucks with a sprained right ankle tonight leaving plenty of usage and extra minutes to be accounted for. Dragic looks to benefit the most as he’s the starter and has already seen a 1.5% usage increase with Waiters off the floor this season. He gets a nice $700 discount on DK and has been virtually a lock for at least 30 DK-points, as he has in each of his last twelve games. The matchup is not ideal, as the Bucks rank second in DVP vs. the point guard position, but it’s nothing a nice increase in shots cannot overcome in this game with a decent 208-point total. Another nice play if you cannot fit in Dragic is Tyler Johnson at $5300.
Shooting Guard: Klay Thompson, Golden State Warriors, $6,700
We only get a $100 savings with Klay tonight, but if you know anything about me then you know I’m a sucker for a good narrative in NBA. Not only is today Klay’s birthday, but he’s also coming back from being away from the team for the death of his Grandfather. Sounds like he should have plenty of extra motivation to light it up tonight at home where he averages about an extra 4 DK-points per game.
The matchup is decent, as the Bulls rank 14th in DVP vs. the shooting guard position, and he should see plenty of Dwyane Wade or Michael Carter -illiams defense. Sign me up!
Small Forward: Carmelo Anthony, New York Knicks, $7,300
Let me start off by saying I’m not a Carmelo fan and there is always risk whenever you plug him in, but I can’t ignore the price and matchup. We get a $700 discount on DK and a home matchup against the Clippers, currently ranked 27th in DVP vs. the small forward position, and Carmelo has a hefty 29.25 Usage %. He also has very positive home splits where he average 40.7 DK-points per home game, a six point increase over his road games on the season.
There is plenty of trade talk and the Knicks are a hot mess, but hopefully Melo will step up his play tonight and in this matchup we can expect an increase in his ability to get to the line, rebounds, and assists. If his shot is working he could be in for a very big night at the Madison Square Garden.
Power Forward: James Johnson, Miami Heat, $5,200
James is priced $700 lower on DK tonight and that is just way too cheap considering that Dion Waiters is doubtful. In his last two games vs. the Bucks this season he’s averaging over 36 minutes wit over 28 DK-points. We know they will definitely need him for his defense against the Bucks, but he now should benefit on the offensive end as well. Milwaukee is ranked 28th in opponent three pointers made per game and gives up plenty to the small forward and power forward position where he should see plenty of minutes tonight. Johnson is a lock and load for me tonight.
Center: Karl-Anthony Towns, Minnesota Timberwolves, $9,800
We get a $1,000 price savings on DK for KAT tonight and I will take advantage, as he’s been super consistent, averaging 54.5 DK-points over his last eleven games. The matchup appears to be mediocre, as the Raptors rank 10th in DVP vs. the center position, but they actually struggle with bigs that can shoot the three, get to the line, and pass, all categories Towns does well in. I also like that he has a 26.29 Usage %, and that it’s a slight pace up spot for Minnesota at home, where KAT has significant home splits averaging over nine DK-points per game at home this season. He has a very high floor with enough upside to make him a core play for tonight.