NBA Starting 5: Wednesday, January 11th
Tonight presents us with a very playable six game slate. We have five teams (Houston, Washington, Boston, Cleveland, and Portland) on the second half of a back-to-back, so as usual it will be very important to monitor news.
Today, I’m going to continue to discuss how I can quickly glance at two of the Research Tools available to identify good situations for my starting five. First, I always browse the Salary Charts tool to see if I can identify some players that DraftKings has priced lower than FanDuel and I can therefore take advantage of the better pricing. I will then click the Advanced Player Stats tool and focus on their USG%. It’s also nice to glance the peripheral stat percentages available to see if I can expect peripheral points.
Point Guard: Damian Lillard, Portland Trail Blazers, $8,500
Lillard is priced $500 lower on DK tonight, and that is great news to me because I prefer playing him with the three-point bonus. Portland is currently a five-point home underdog in a game with a 220-point total – the highest of the night. We all know that the Kyrie Irving defense is the spot to attack, as Cleveland ranks 19th in DVP vs. the point guard position and both teams are on the second half of a back-to-back. In his last meeting against the Cavs on 11/23, Lillard went for 68.25 fantasy points when he was also on a B2B. You can bet Portland will look to Dame for heavy scoring tonight if they hope to hang around in this one.
Shooting Guard: James Harden, Houston Rockets, $12,000
There is definitely enough value to be able to fit in a stud tonight and per usual I’ll be looking to Harden. He is priced $400 lower on DK where we can really take advantage of the double-double, triple-double, and three point bonuses as well as save a half-point on each turnover. Harden is on a back-to-back where he actually significantly outperforms his salary-based expectation over a decent sample size. The man is simply a machine and will be looking for his third straight triple-double against Minnesota where the Rockets are three-point road underdogs against Minnesota in a game with a hefty 218-point total, even though the Rockets are 9-0 on the second half of back-to-backs. He has a ridiculous 36.45 Usage % and the Wolves currently rank 21st in DVP vs. the point guard position, what Harden really is. Look for him to attack the paint tonight where Minnesota ranks 23rd in opponent points in paint per game.
Small Forward: Nemanja Bjelica, Minnesota Timberwolves, $3,000
We are going to need value somewhere to fit in the studs tonight and Bjelica is priced the minimum on both sites. With Zach LaVine doubtful tonight, that opens up a lot of minutes as he leads the Wolves in minutes per game. In Lavine’s only absence of the season on Nov. 13 against the Lakers, Bjelica received 41 minutes and looks to be in line to be the main beneficiary as he played 29 minutes due to LaVine leaving in the fourth quarter. Bjelica is a .8 FP/Min player with a good shot who is easily the best point-per-dollar play on the board. Lock him in.
Power Forward: Kevin Love, Cleveland Cavaliers, $8,100
Love is priced the same on both sites, but I’ll plug him in on DK and look to take advantage of the bonus potential. I want at least a one Cavs player in this game and Kevin should be able to dominate this matchup just as he did on 11/24 when he dropped 34 real points in the first quarter alone. Yes, the Blazers were without Aminu then, but Love presents a bad matchup for him as well. The Blazers have been better at defending power forwards lately, but they still rank 30th in DVP vs. the position and really struggle with bigs who can stretch the floor and shoot from the outside. I won’t be looking for 34 first quarter points, but am comfortable playing Kevin and his 26.6% True Usage in this pace up matchup game with the highest total of the night.
Center: Marcin Gortat, Washington Wizards, $6,000
The Polish Hammer is priced $400 lower on DK and gets a great spot to exploit, a matchup against Boston. The Celtics are currently ranked 23rd in DVP vs. the center position, but are the third-worst rebounding team in the league. With Ian Mahinmi out, the Wizards have been running out Gortat for huge minutes as he’s averaging over 36 minutes per game this season, 9th most in the league, and will do so tonight as long as the game stays competitive. Jonas Valanciunas simply dominated the Celtics last night going for over 50 DK points. Gortat is simply priced too low for his expected workload and this matchup.