NBA Starting 5: Wednesday, March 22nd
Tonight we have eight-game slate to attack. We have three teams (Detroit, Chicago, and Milwaukee) on the second half of a back-to-back, so as usual I will try my best to avoid players on those teams who I feel should be downgraded. There are also plenty of injury situations to monitor, so I envision another mad scramble before lineups lock.
Today, I’m going to continue to discuss how I can quickly glance at two of the Research Tools available to identify good situations for my starting five. First, I always browse the Salary Charts tool to see if I can identify some players that DraftKings has priced lower than FanDuel so I can take advantage of the better pricing — this is especially important with pricing becoming more dynamic on each site. I will then click the Advanced Player Stats tool and focus on their USG%. It’s also nice to glance the peripheral stat percentages available to see if I can expect peripheral points.
Point Guard: Kyrie Irving, Cleveland Cavaliers, $8,600
At this point in the day I don’t feel comfortable with lineup builds if I try to force in Russell Westbrook. I will instead look to another stud point guard in Kyrie, who gets a $400 discount on DK, as he should be well rested and heads to Denver as three-point road favorites in a game with a monster 227-point total – the highest on the slate.
This game has playoff implications for both teams, as the Nuggets are in the mix in the playoff race and the Celtics are now within reach of the Cavs for the first seed in the East. The Nuggets also have the highest implied team total and the matchup is premium, as the Nuggets currently rank 27th in DVP vs. the point guard position. Denver gives up tons of extra threes, twos, free throws, assists, steals, and blocks to the point guard position, so even with Kevin Love back in the mix tonight, I’m still expecting a very nice game from Kyrie.
Shooting Guard: Avery Bradley, Boston Celtics, $6,100
Disclaimer: I’m a Celtics homer and Bradley is my favorite player on the team. However, I’ve been watching Avery very closely and like him in tonight’s home game against the Pacers. We get a $400 discount on DK and he’s been looking very good lately. First his matchup is decent, as the Pacers rank 13th in DVP vs. the shooting guard position, but it’s actually the better of the two backcourt options. Isaiah Thomas should draw Jeff Teague leaving Bradley matched up with the slow C.J. Miles, who should have a very hard time keeping up with Bradley.
The other factor I really like is Bradley’s usage. He has a 21.53 Usage % on the season, but is significantly trending up. In March alone, he has 24% Usage and 24.3% Usage while playing with Isaiah Thomas. He also comes into tonight with a 9.84 POW-Reb % – the third highest at the position on the slate. We know he’s capable of stuffing the stat sheet and I think he makes for a sneaky and relatively safe play tonight with decent upside since he’s rounding into good form, as evidenced by his 41.25 DK-point performance in his last game against the Wizards.
Small Forward: Giannis Antetokounmpo, Milwaukee Bucks, $9,200
My model really likes Giannis tonight and his price has come down to a point where I simply cannot ignore. We get an $800 discount on DK, and the Bucks are fighting for their playoff lives coming into tonight as five-point road favorites in Sacramento in a game with a low 199-point total. There are red flags here as the Bucks are playing on a B2B and their fourth game in six nights, but the matchup is also premium, as Sacramento ranks 24th in defensive efficiency as well as 26th and 23rd in DVP vs. the small forward and power forward positions, respectively.
Giannis has been struggling lately, which is a concern, but he ended up with over 41 DK-points after essentially doing nothing in the entire first quarter in last night’s game vs. Portland. He finished with a 30.9 Usage % and only managed one steal on the night. I think we can expect an uptick in steals tonight at Sacramento ranks 24th in opponent steals allowed and could see a really nice game from the Greek Freak tonight. I’m comfortable taking the risk chasing a high ceiling at his newly fallen price point.
Power Forward: Kristaps Porzingis, New York Knicks, $6,200
The Knicks are an absolute disaster, and reports have come out that we should expect to see decreased minutes for the veterans, as the youth talent evaluating movement is in full effect. The one star on the team I expect to not be negatively affected is Porzingis. We get a $300 price discount on DK and he’s definitely a GPP only play as the matchup appears to be very bad against the Jazz, but he should match up at Utah’s most vulnerable spot with the loss of Derrick Favors and may end up matching up with Joe Johnson.
Stretch fours have had some nice games against the Jazz recently, as Nemanja Bjelica put up a monster game, going for 42.2 DK points and a nice game from Bobby Portis. Porzingis has real upside in this spot at what should be extremely low ownership. If you are not comfortable plugging him in consider Willie Cauley-Stein instead.
Center: Rudy Gobert, Utah Jazz, $7,700
Rudy gets a $1100 discount on DK tonight and is my top center on the board. He gets a premium matchup with the Knicks, currently ranked 28th in DVP vs. the center position and give up tons of extra offensive rebounds and blocks to the position. He should see Hernangomez, Plumlee, and maybe some O’Quinn on the defensive end of the floor and should be able to dominate this matchup. He’s also in great recent form as he’s averaging over 43 DK points per game over his last five games.
I see no reason not to fire Gobert up again tonight when many people will be targeting the Bulls center value, which is a perfect opportunity to significantly outscore the position.