NBA Starting 5: Wednesday, March 29th
Tonight we have a large 10-game slate to attack. We have eight teams (Atlanta, Philadelphia, Milwaukee, Charlotte, Miami, Indiana, Golden State and Washington) on the second half of a back-to-back, so as usual I will try my best to avoid players on those teams who I feel should be downgraded. There are also plenty of injury situations to monitor in addition to it being the craziest part of the season where we have a blend of teams fighting for playoff contention and seeds, coaches resting players, and some wacky rotations, so pay extra attention to news before lineups lock.
Today, I’m going to continue to discuss how I can quickly glance at two of the Research Tools available to identify good situations for my starting five. First, I always browse the Salary Charts tool to see if I can identify some players that DraftKings has priced lower than FanDuel so I can take advantage of the better pricing — this is especially important with pricing becoming more dynamic on each site. I will then click the Advanced Player Stats tool and focus on their USG%. It’s also nice to glance the peripheral stat percentages available to see if I can expect peripheral points.
Point Guard: Russell Westbrook, Oklahoma City Thunder, $13,200
Westbrook and the Thunder head to Orlando as 6-point road favorites to take on the Magic tonight in game with a 218-point total. I’m making an exception here, as he’s $100 more expensive on DK, but we get to take advantage of all the bonuses and lose a half point less per turnover. He needs four triple-doubles in the final nine games to tie Oscar Robertson’s NBA record and I think it’s a lock he will get one tonight against the Magic’s struggling defense.
Orlando ranks 24th in total fantasy points allowed and 25th in DVP vs. the point guard position. They have the fourth worst Net Rating in the league over the last five games and give up plenty of extra rebounds, assists, and blocks to the point guard position. Orlando has also been playing at a faster pace, so I think building around Westbrook will be key tonight. I think he legitimately could go for 80 fantasy points in this spot if this game stays competitive.
Shooting Guard: Avery Bradley, Boston Celtics, $5,700
Disclaimer: I’m a Celtics homer and Bradley is my favorite player on the team. Well, this is back-to-back weeks that Avery has made my starting five. His price is simply too cheap and at $5700 we get a $500 discount on DK. The matchup is tough, as the Bucks rank sixth in DVP vs. the shooting guard position, but you can bet that the Bucks will key in on stopping Isaiah Thomas, leaving Bradley extra opportunities for production.
Milwaukee ranks 23rd in opponent three pointers made per game and give up the majority of them to the shooting guard and small forward positions. I would be inclined to think both he and Jae Crowder have nice games from behind the arc, but I suspect Crowder will spend plenty of time guarding Giannis and as a result his offense may be somewhat impacted, making me like Bradley even more. We know he’s capable of stuffing the stat sheet with rebounds and I’m giving him a boost in projected assists, as the Bucks rank towards the bottom of the league in assists allowed to opposing shooting guards. If this game goes the way I think it will he should be a really nice value.
Small Forward: Kent Bazemore, Atlanta Hawks, $4,000
Bazemore said he’ll return to the lineup on tonight vs. the Sixers after sitting out the last five games due to a right knee injury and he should return to the starting lineup in place of Taurean Prince. Every game is very important for the Hawks the rest of the way and they have not been playing good basketball lately. They just barely beat a depleted Phoenix squad yesterday.
Baze gets a $300 discount on DK and I’m comfortable using him for value with his conceivably fresh legs against the Sixers, who are on a back-to-back and missing many guys. The Sixers rank 26th in total fantasy points allowed and the individual matchup is decent as, Philadelphia currently ranks 16th in DVP vs. the shooting guard and small forward positions. He’s averaged close to a fantasy point per minute against Philly in three games this year and we should be able to get him at low ownership since he’s in his first game back from injury and most people take a “wait and see” approach.
Power Forward: Blake Griffin, Los Angeles Clippers, $7,900
Blake comes in at a $700 discount on DK tonight and I think we should be able to get him at low ownership since he is coming off four disappointing games. There is risk here as he has not looked great, but I’m banking on extra motivation from coming off an embarrassing loss to the Kings on Sunday. The matchup is great, as the Wizards rank 23rd in DVP vs. the power forward position and give up extra threes, twos, rebounds, and blocks to the power forward position.
I also like that Washington is playing on the second half of a back-to-back which should help Blake get back on track. He and Markieff Morris have plenty of history and battles in the past, so I think Blake will get up for this game. In their earlier meeting this year he went for 46.3 fantasy points. Yes his recent form has declined, but so has his price. With a little extra motivation in this premium matchup he could plow through value.
Center: Greg Monroe, Milwaukee Bucks, $5,200
Monroe gets an $800 discount on DK tonight and I love this spot for him. The Celtics play smaller than most, so hopefully we can count on Kidd to do the right thing and let him approach his minutes ceiling in this game. The last time they played Boston this season he got 35 minutes in a game that went to overtime. I’d be happy with anything around 25 and though the back-to-back does scare me, the Bucks are battling for their spot in the playoffs and this matchup is suited for him.
The Celtics rank 22nd in DVP vs. the center position, 26th in rebounding, and Monroe put up 44.75 fantasy points against them last time they met. Again, that game went to overtime and was without Al Horford (who also should have a good game tonight), but Monroe should be able to eat vs. any of the Celtics bigs. Boston gives up lots of extra offensive and defensive rebounds, twos, and assists to opposing centers which correlates perfectly with Monroe’s strengths. I expect a very nice game at a value price.