NBA Starting 5: Wednesday, March 2nd
The Starting 5 Series will provide Grinders a quick look at the day’s top positional plays, analyzed through the lens of our Daily Research Tools.
Today we’re going to be using the Trending Stats Watch to help identify today’s top plays at each position on FanDuel. As always, remember this is just a piece of the puzzle. There are many other factors that are involved in selecting players and building a lineup. However, this tool can help us glean some insight into players who are definitely trending in the right direction.
Point Guard – Chris Paul, Los Angeles Clippers – $10,200
The marquee matchup on this slate is a game that is projected to be a shootout between the Thunder and the Clippers in Los Angeles. It currently sits with a very close one point spread and a projected total just north of 220 points. In other words, this is not only a fun real-life game, but it is also a great game to target with some daily fantasy picks. I’ll give Chris Paul an ever-so-slight edge between the two point guards. As you can see in the above chart, Paul has really picked up his play over the last few weeks. Over the past three weeks, he is averaging 11.94 fantasy points per game above his season average. Westbrook is not a great defender, so expect Paul to keep the good times rolling in this game that will be a fun one to watch tonight.
Shooting Guard – Zach LaVine, Minnesota Timberwolves – $5,200
The filters on the Trending Stats Watch page default to the simple metric of minutes played. As they say with daily fantasy hoops, minutes = money! It is always helpful to note who is playing more minutes than they have been in earlier portions of the season. These results are often skewed by low-end players, as it is obviously a big change if they go from 5 minutes to 12 minutes. It is important to filter out the “noise” on this page. Over the past week, Zach LaVine has seen his minutes increase by over 11 compared to his season average. Over the last three weeks, he is seeing almost nine minutes more than his season average. The Wolves have moved on from Kevin Martin, so LaVine’s role is secure. He should be a fine option tonight, as he should continue to receive 30+ minutes of court time and has a sneaky-good matchup in what should be an up-tempo game with the Wizards.
Small Forward – Kawhi Leonard, San Antonio Spurs – $8,000
In a similar fashion, you have to wade through the noise if you try to sort by usage rate. This is one of my favorite stats to look at, as you can see who is becoming more relevant in their offense. Obviously, though, we can exclude a player like Metta World Peace. The first name that pops up at small forward is Kawhi Leonard. He went through a tough spell in late January and early February, but the Spurs are getting him involved once again. He is a key cog on this team and is a safe option on a nightly basis once again given the recent usage spike. Give him a look this evening.
Power Forward – Jabari Parker, Milwaukee Bucks – $6,000
All right, it is time for me to finally apologize to Jabari Parker. For the last few weeks, I have been that stubborn DFS player – the one who refuses to think a player finally has this massive fantasy upside that he hasn’t displayed all season. I have waited – and waited – and waited – for Jabari Parker to come back down to earth. I might as well have gone around handing out dollar bills. These new run-and-gun Bucks are fun to watch, and Parker is developing into a good player right before our eyes. He is another player whose price has not yet caught up to his recent production. His 17.1 PPG in February was more than five above his season average, and he outperformed his season averages in almost every statistical category last month. The above chart also shows that his rebounding rate has climbed over the past three weeks moreso than any other power forward in the league.
This second chart shows his overall growth in fantasy point production over that same time frame. He is breaking out before our eyes, and I am finally boarding the train. Go ahead and blame me if Parker comes crashing down to earth here.
Center – Dwight Howard, Houston Rockets – $8,100
I wasn’t sure whether to put Karl-Anthony Towns or Howard here, so I sided with Howard since I already have another Minnesota player in the article today. Both players have seen a nice spike in fantasy production of late, and Howard looks like a brand new player out there on the court. Howard draws a fine matchup against New Orleans, who has been porous on the defensive end all year long. They are allowing over 106 points per game this season, and Howard should be in for a solid game here. The contest also has a very intriguing projected total of 220 points.