NBA Starting Five: Monday, March 21st
The Starting Five series will provide Grinders with a quick look at the day’s top positional plays, analyzed through the lens of our Daily Research Tools.
I’ve mostly been focusing on the Trending Stats Watch, but will change it up a bit today. I’ll start by looking at the Vegas Odds and Lines to find some teams I want to concentrate on today. Then I’ll move to the RotoGrinders Defense vs. Position tool to find some of the premier plays on the teams I’ve highlighted from the Vegas Odds page. I’ll be using FanDuel pricing.
I’ll start with the Vegas Odds for today and will focus in on the top six projected highest scoring teams:
The Warriors, Bulls, Cavs, Celtics, Pacers, and Timberwolves all check in with team totals of at least 110 points tonight, and are my first priorities to target. The Bulls situation is a little up in the air because Pau Gasol could return for tonight, so I’ll focus on the other five teams and wait for news on Pau. If you’re a member then you can use the NBA First Look to see that the Warriors (+6.1), Cavs (+8.9), Pacers (+10.1), Celtics (+5.3), and Timberwolves (+8.3) are all projected to score well above their season average. That means I’ll be picking on the Timberwolves, Nuggets, 76ers, Magic, and Warriors as we dig into DvP.
Point Guard: Kyrie Irving, $7,100
In terms of the games I’m looking to target, we have several options at PG tonight; George Hill, Ricky Rubio, Isaiah Thomas, Kyrie Irving and Stephen Curry, all have top 12 DvP matchups tonight. PG looks like a great spot to get exposure with some of these high scoring teams and I don’t mind any of the above options, but want to focus on Irving and Curry. Curry is basically self-explanatory at this point. He’s playing in a game with a 232 point total and has a bad taste in his mouth following their loss to the Spurs. I’d expect him to rebound in a big way and he had 46 points against Minnesota earlier this year. He will likely be one of the more highly owned players, so I’d give him a long look in all formats, especially cash games.
As far as Kyrie goes, the threat of a blowout is a little worrisome, but I love the Cavs team total and I love Kyrie’s usage with Kevin Love out. Love is questionable for tonight due to an illness, and I’ve seen some beat writers say they’d be surprised if he plays. At just $7,100, Kyrie is very affordable and has averaged 40 FD PPG in the games he’s played without Love this season.
Shooting Guard: Klay Thompson, $7,000
At SG, J.R. Smith, Iman Shumpert and Klay Thompson are the guys who show up with plus matchups from the teams I’m looking to target. If Love sits then J.R. and Iman could be solid value options, but Klay is the guy that I want to get exposure to, particularly in tournaments.
Thompson is not a guy I love using in cash games because he’s too scoring dependent and puts up too many games of 25 fantasy points. However, he’s a guy who can get hot really quickly, and pour in 40 real points. He did it against the Mavs recently, and with the pace of this game and Minnesota’s poor SG defense, it’s certainly a possibility tonight. Curry is my preferred option from the Warriors for cash games, but Klay is a guy I’ll mix into some tournaments lineups.
Small Forward: Paul George, $9,200
If you’re spending at SF, I think LeBron James is the safer cash game option if Love is out, but George is like Klay in that he’s a guy I want some GPP exposure to tonight.
The big worry with George is the risk of the blowout because this game is in Indiana and the Pacers are 15.5 point favorites. That’s enough to possibly scare me away in cash games, but the matchup is too good to not get some GPP exposure. Given all of the injuries, I also think there will be plenty of value by lineup lock to spend up at several positions. The 76ers were pasted in Indiana earlier this year 85-112. They can’t defend SF and George put up 34 points, 8 rebounds, 5 assists, and 4 steals in 32 minutes. The key takeaway being that yes there is a risk of blowout, but George can do plenty of damage in 30 minutes.
Power Forward: Amir Johnson, $3,800
I wanted to list a value option out of the teams that I’m looking to target and Amir shows up against Orlando’s 22nd ranked PF defense. It never feels great to roster Amir because the Celtics’ rotation at big man is very inconsistent and unpredictable. At times he’ll play just 15 minutes, so there is some risk here, however, i think that risk is lessened tonight. With Jae Crowder out, the Celtics can’t go small quite as often, so Amir has played 23, 25, 26 and 24 minutes in the four games that Crowder has missed. On the season, he’s averaged 19.8 FD PPG in 22.4 MPG, so if we can project him for those 23 to 25 minutes then he should hit value, especially in a plus matchup.
Also note that LeBron James has been starting at PF recently so his matchup looks very good, especially if Kevin Love sits.
Center: Karl-Anthony Towns, $8,800
The Warriors obviously make great targets in a game with a 232 point total, but Minnesota also checks in with a total of 110 points. KAT has been their best player all year, and the Warriors are just 21st in DVP against centers on the season. Andrew Bogut has been ruled out for tonight, so while Draymond Green is a great defender, KAT will have a big size advantage and should control the interior in this matchup.