NBA Starting Five: Thursday, March 17th
The Starting Five series will provide Grinders a quick look at the day’s top positional plays, analyzed through the lens of our Daily Research Tools.
Today we’ll take a closer look at one of my favorite tools the NBA Trending Stats Watch.
There have been a ton of injuries over the past week, so this is a great tool to see who has seen the uptick in production due to those injuries. We’ll use FanDuel pricing and in particular will look at the “MIN” and “FPTS” tabs to see who has seen a recent bump in minutes and fantasy production. I also like to use this tool in conjunction with the Defense vs Position Tool to see which players have the combination of elevated minutes and production to go with a great matchup.
Point Guard: Shelvin Mack, $5,500
I’ll start each position by looking at the “MIN” first to see who is seeing elevated minutes, and then next look at “FPTS” to see if those minutes have translated to production. First the minutes:
It’s looking like there will be tons of value today once again, so I’m basically locking in John Wall into one of my PG spots on FD.
The second PG spot is a little tougher, and while I don’t think Shelvin Mack is a must, he looks like a really nice mid-range option.
Mack has really nailed down the starting PG spot in Utah and is averaging almost 34 MPG over the past week, which is 18 over his season average.
Mack has really taken advantage of his minutes in Utah, and is averaging just over a fantasy point per minute over the past week. One key I’m really looking at here is the status of Gordon Hayward, who missed the last game and is questionable for tonight. If he sits then Mack should pick up extra usage and will have a great matchup against a Phoenix team that hasn’t defended all season long.
Shooting Guard: Lance Stephenson, $5,600
Let’s look at the recent minutes at the SG position:
Lance really stands out here and looks like a guy to target in all formats. He was low owned last night because he was a GTD, but he suited up and looked very healthy. With all of the Grizzlies’ injures, he’s being asked to play big minutes off the bench and is averaging 33 MPG over the past week.
Lance is looking like the player that we saw in Indiana a few years ago. With all of Memphis’ injuries, the ball is being put in his hands a lot and he’s being asked to make plays for himself and his teammates. The result has been huge fantasy production with nearly 45 FD PPG over the past week. The matchup is also there against a Milwaukee team that has struggled defensively this year.
Small Forward: Giannis Antetokounmpo, $10,200
For SF let’s look at minutes per game over the past three weeks:
There’s going to be some sticker shock with Giannis today because his price climbed over the $10,000 mark for the first time all season. However, there’s plenty of value today to fit him in and his production looks like it could be sustainable for a few reasons. The first is minute volume. As we see, he’s just playing tons of minutes recently at nearly 38 MPG. Those minutes combined with a player like Giannis, who racks up peripheral stats, leads to a very high fantasy floor. The second reason is the injuries to O.J. Mayo and Michael Carter-Williams so he’s running the offense as a point forward. The result has been huge fantasy production…..
He’s averaging 50 FD PPG over the past week, and 48 over the past three weeks so that price tag isn’t outlandish given his recent production. While the Grizzlies’ season long defensive numbers are good, this is not the same team anymore. They are missing their defensive anchor in Marc Gasol, and don’t have anyone with the length to match up with Giannis.
Power Forward: Carl Landry, $4,900
Back to the “MIN”“ tab at PF:
If Taj Gibson is out then there’s going to be another value option today in Bobby Portis. He won’t show up in the graphs because the injury just happened last game. Along with Portis, we have another value option in Carl Landry tonight. Jerami Grant, Richaun Holmes, and Robert Covington are all out once again so Landry should draw another start. Due to all of those injuries, Landry is averaging 25 MPG over the past week.
Landry has been producing around a fantasy point per minute for a few weeks now and that has continued with his recent uptick in playing time. He’s averaging 28 FD PPG over the past week, which is over 5x value and he has scored at least 26 FD points in each of those games.
Center: Brook Lopez, $8,300
In terms of minutes, there isn’t a lot that stands out at center tonight. The minutes of Nikola Jokic are up on the whole, but on any given game Mike Malone can pull the plug, as he played just 17 minutes a few games ago. I think he makes a great GPP option against Atlanta but remains a risky cash game option. Jordan Hill isn’t going to show up on this graph but he’ll be a nice value option if Ian Mahinmi sits out tonight.
With nothing really standing out in terms of minutes and given all of the value, let’s sort by total fantasy points over the past three weeks to see who stands out as a top option if we are spending at center.
Pau Gasol is out, but Hassan Whiteside and Brook Lopez have been producing at a solid clip over the past three weeks. Lopez in particular is very interesting tonight because his price has dropped after two sub-par outings. However, he’s been solid otherwise, and Chicago could be paper thin on the interior tonight so this is a matchup that he should dominate offensively.