NBA Trend Blend: Friday, November 11th
Defense versus Position isn’t everything – pace isn’t everything – defensive rating isn’t everything, but the combination of trends and metrics is something; it’s the NBA Trend Blend.
Admittedly, there is no single article or tool that you can use to build perfect lineups night in and night out, but this will be another awesome article/tool that you can use to gain an edge over the competition. Some may look at one tool/trend and make decisions solely based on a narrow set of data, but we will dive in to take a deeper look at some of the best plays on the slate.
This article will feature some of my favorite plays (and occasionally overrated plays) at each position based on DvP, pace, defensive rating, and other factors.
DRtg/A – An estimate of points allowed per 100 possessions adjusted for strength of opponent offense
Pace – Possessions per game
DvP – Defense versus Position
Slate Info
Games
Eight
Highest O/U
Indiana Pacers @ Philadelphia 76ers – 213
Lowest O/U
Utah Jazz @ Orlando Magic – 192.5
Highest Projected Total
Indiana Pacers – 109
Cleveland Cavaliers – 108.5
Lowest Projected Total
Detroit Pistons – 92.25
Orlando Magic – 94.25
Largest Spread
San Antonio Spurs – 8.5-point home favorites over Detroit Pistons
Closest Spread
Charlotte Hornets – 3 point home favorites over Toronto Raptors
Point Guard
Favorites
Jeff Teague ($6,700 DK – $6,300 FD) and Sergio Rodriguez (5,100 DK – 5,200 FD) – I’m listing both of these starting point guards because they’re both on my radar and I often like to stack point guards against one another (though I may or may not do so tonight, but it is in play). This game features the highest O/U of the night and is only a 4.5 point spread, which means that Vegas believes this game will stay competitive. Currently, the 76ers represent the third best PG DvP matchup in the NBA, while the Pacers represent the 10th best PG DvP matchup in the NBA. The Pacers currently have the 28th ranked DRtg/A in the league while the 76ers rank 20th. The Pacers currently play at the third fastest pace, while the 76ers play at the 11th fastest pace. All in all, this is a fantastic spot for both guys. Sergio is likely to go under owned after shooting 1-14 from the field in his last game (which was against the Pacers), but he still managed to contribute in peripheral stats. Teague meanwhile posted his best game of the season by scoring 30 real life points to go along with nine assists. Both guys are strong plays from the same game, and both deserve heavy consideration.
Chris Paul ($8,900 DK – $9,300 FD) – If you read this article regularly, you may think that I have a man crush on CP3. Maybe I do. I’ll never tell. What I will tell you is why I believe CP3 to be a great play tonight. This game could mistakenly go overlooked because of the mediocre O/U and because of the fact that both of these teams currently hold the one and two spot in DRtg/A. However, the Clippers also rank in the top ten in ORtg/A (adjusted offensive rating), and the Thunder represent the fifth best PG DvP matchup in basketball. The Thunder also play at the fourth fastest pace, which should give Paul extra opportunities on both ends. CP3 loves facing elite PG’s. In his last six games against Westbrook and the Thunder, CP3 has five double doubles. In the one game that he didn’t double double, he put up 33 points, four boards and nine assists. Vegas expects this game to remain close throughout, which should (finally) give CP3 and the rest of the LAC starters regular minutes tonight.
Others worth mentioning
Damian Lillard
John Wall
Isaiah Thomas
Shooting Guard
Favorites
C.J. McCollum ($6,900 DK – $7,100 FD) – As of now, McCollum is one of my favorite plays at any position tonight. Last week I talked about the importance of overcoming recency bias when making lineup decisions. If you’re a box score looker, you’ll notice that CJ massively disappointed in his last game against the Clippers (as did the entire Portland team) in a blowout. Let others focus on that game while you and I look beyond the box score! In his two games before the flop against LAC, McCollum put up 50 plus DK FPTS while scoring over 30 real life points in each (ok, that was still the box score, but now we’re going to go deeper, I promise). As of this writing, Portland has the third highest implied team total on the slate at 108.25 – we like that. We also like that the Kings have the 22nd ranked DRtg/A and the 23rd best DvP numbers against opposing shooting guards. We also like that Portland plays at the fifth fastest pace in the NBA. We also like that C.J. has the second highest usage among all starting shooting guards in the association. Boomshakalaka.
Others worth mentioning
DeMar DeRozan – volume, volume, volume
J.R. Smith
Small Forward
Favorites
Paul George ($8,100 DK – $8,500 FD) – As previously noted above in the point guard section, this game figures to be loaded with fantasy goodness. PG13’s price point is right below LeBron and Kawhi and right above Melo and Rudy Gay, which should allow him to continue flying under the radar to a certain degree. Many will likely flock to Otto Porter after his recent hot streak as well (more on that in a moment). George has one of the best matchups on the board tonight as he faces the 76ers and their 20th ranked DRtg/A and their dead last SF DvP. George has yet to have a truly huge game, but his usage rate of 26.7 remains elite, and the matchup couldn’t be better. Given the close spread and the pace of both teams, PG13 should be able to meet and exceed value on this slate, and we may get him at relatively low ownership.
Others worth mentioning
LeBron James
Carmelo Anthony
Rudy Gay
Gordon Hayward
Maurice Harkless
I’ll Pass
Otto Porter – Otto went absolutely nuts in his last game, and my lineups couldn’t have been any happier. In that game, he shot 14-19 with three steals, three blocks and 14 rebounds against the Celtics. After being an elite defensive team last year, Boston currently ranks dead last in DRtg/A. Meanwhile, Cleveland plays at a much slower pace and represents a vastly more challenging matchup for Porter. In truth, I expect Otto to continue seeing decent volume, and I wouldn’t be surprised to see him put up 30 FPTS tonight in a closely contested game, but this looks like a prime fade spot to me as the best way to attack Cleveland is at the PG spot. Also, Porters 34 points, 14 boards and three blocks were ALL career highs. I don’t think we see anything close to those numbers tonight, though he’s probably an ok cash game play.
Power Forward
Favorites
Blake Griffin ($8,700 DK – $8,500 FD) – Blake once again finds himself in a great spot this evening. The Thunder represent a pace up opponent for the Clippers, and that style of game suits Blake just fine (ask the Blazers). The difference between this game and the last game against Portland is that this game is expected to remain close. The Thunder don’t have anyone who can body up Griffin and keep up with him along the perimeter, and he should have his way in this spot. OKC currently represents the 13th best DvP matchup against power forwards, which may not be elite, but it’s still above average and deserves our consideration. This projects to be the type of game that allows Blake to rack up big numbers in peripheral stats as well as real life points, and I wouldn’t be surprised to see him to the top scoring forward of the night.
Kristaps Porzingis ($7,300 DK – $6,900 FD) – Honestly, I’m not trying to talk about the same players over and over. Instead, I’m trying to find the best plays in the best spots to talk about, and that happens to include both Blake and PorzinGod once again. The five worst teams in terms of PF DvP are off today, which brings us to some good but not elite matchups, including the seventh best PF matchup in the form of the Boston Celtics. As previously mentioned, the Celtics are playing horrendous team defense to start the season (even worse than the Rockets, and every single other team in the NBA). Porzingis has caught fire recently and has shot 27-48 in his last three games including 11 made 3pt attempts. The Celtics have been playing at a slower pace this season, which actually suits Kristaps better than up-tempo games (seriously, watch him run the floor back and forth in transition, it’s sort of sad). While the Celtics should figure things out defensively at some point, the loss of Jae Crowder and Al Horford (not a great defender anyways) is impacting things defensively, and I’ll continue attacking this Celtics team in spite of being a Boston homer. That’s how much I like this spot for Kristaps and co.
Others worth mentioning
Center
Favorites
DeMarcus Cousins ($10,000 DK – $9,500 FD) – Boogie figures to see minutes at both PF and C tonight, which is great because Portland ranks in the bottom eight in DvP against both positions. Boogie will be on the second half of a back to back, but he double doubled in 9 of 13 back to backs last season, and his production didn’t see a dip at all in those instances. Portland plays at the fifth fastest pace in the NBA and they own the 24th ranked DRtg/A, which all sets up beautifully for Cousins tonight. Portland will also be without Al-Farouq Aminu in this one. Boogie is definitely a volatile play because of his frequent Hulk moments and his tendency to take possessions off on both ends, but he also brings one of the highest ceilings to the table, especially in a good matchup. He’s not a great cash play, but he’s on my radar in tournaments.
Joel Embiid ($5,900 DK – $5,200 FD) – Embiid is expected to play tonight and to rest tomorrow, but be sure to confirm that throughout the day. While the minutes are still likely to be limited to 25, Embiid has smashed value in worse matchups with similar minutes including dominant performances in 25 or less minutes against OKC, Utah and Cleveland, all of whom are above average in defending the center position. Tonight, Embiid gets to take on the Pacers who play at the third fastest pace, who own the third worst DRtg/A in the league and who rank 20th in C DvP. I don’t care if he only plays 25 minutes. I expect Embiid to smash once again tonight.
Others worth mentioning
Mason Plumlee
Tyler Zeller
Al Jefferson
Tendencies To Exploit
Yesterday, I posted a blog here on RG about stealing $10,000 from myself. You should read it. I talked about overcoming fear and nerves. I discussed the important of refining your daily process, and then learning to trust that process. Put in the work and take advantage of the vast majority who either don’t do enough research or who do sloppy research. Keep learning, keep revising and refining your research, and trust yourself. Now, go forth and prosper.
Give RotoGrinders and me a shout out on twitter when you win the money tonight! Thanks for reading.