NBA Trend Blend: Friday, November 18th
Defense versus Position isn’t everything – pace isn’t everything – defensive rating isn’t everything, but the combination of trends and metrics is something; it’s the NBA Trend Blend.
Admittedly, there is no single article or tool that you can use to build perfect lineups night in and night out, but this will be another awesome article/tool that you can use to gain an edge over the competition. Some may look at one tool/trend and make decisions solely based on a narrow set of data, but we will dive in to take a deeper look at some of the best plays on the slate.
This article will feature some of my favorite plays (and occasionally overrated plays) at each position based on DvP, pace, defensive rating, and other factors.
DRtg/A – An estimate of points allowed per 100 possessions adjusted for strength of opponent offense
Pace – Possessions per game
DvP – Defense versus Position
Slate Info
Games
Ten
Highest O/U
Golden State Warriors @ Boston Celtics – 224.5
Brooklyn Nets @ Oklahoma City Thunder – 219
Lowest O/U
Memphis Grizzlies @ Dallas Mavericks
Highest Projected Total
Golden State Warriors – 115.75
Oklahoma City Thunder – 114.25
Lowest Projected Total
Dallas Mavericks – 93.25
Largest Spread
Oklahoma City Thunder – 9.5-Point home favorites over Brooklyn Nets
Closest Spread
Memphis Grizzlies 1.5-point road favorites over Dallas Mavericks
Point Guard
Favorites
Kyle Lowry (7,900 DK – 8,300 FD) – Lowry has everything that we look for when it comes to building high floor/high ceiling lineups. Lowry gets elite minutes (36 or more in every game this season), produces in peripheral stats as well as real scoring, and he finds himself in a glorious spot tonight against the Nuggets. Taking PG’s against the Nuggets is never a bad idea (unless they inexplicably decide to take a season low four FGA’s – Eric Bledsoe). Currently, the Nuggets rank second in the NBA in pace, while also ranking dead last in PG DvP. Denver owns an average 107.53 DRtg/A, but Toronto is one of the most efficient offenses in the NBA (second only to Golden State). Lowry and the Raptors are currently expected to outscore their season average by a point and a half, which may not seem like much, but considering that this game is on the road, it’s something we need to factor in as Vegas has done. Vegas also projects this game to be close, which should lead to continued minutes for Lowry. His price is still affordable across the industry, and while he will likely be chalky tonight, he provides the type of floor/ceiling combo that is extremely attractive.
Isaiah Thomas (7,900 DK – 8,300 FD) – IT2 is priced identically to Lowry on both main sites, and finds himself in a similarly good spot. Thomas doesn’t get the same elite minutes as a guy like Lowry does, but Thomas brings the same consistency. In fact, Isaiah has scored at least 23 real life points in all ten games so far this season. He averages six 3pt attempts per game and gets to the foul line. The Warriors currently grade out as a bottom four team in DRtg/A and as a one of the six most favorable DvP matchups for PG’s, which only serves to further enhance this spot for Isaiah. The Celtics typically play well on their home court, and while the Warriors are still 7-point favorites tonight, I expect the Celtics to hold their own and stay competitive. If they do, Isaiah Thomas is likely to be a major reason why. Thomas represents a nice pivot off of Lowry, and I will likely try to fit two high dollar PG’s into my lineups tonight. These two grade out towards the top of my list.
Others worth mentioning
Russell Westbrook
Stephen Curry
Chris Paul
Damian Lillard
Kemba Walker
Eric Bledsoe
Emmanuel Mudiay
Here’s a riddle – On DK, I used to be listed as a SG/PG. Then I started playing SF. Shortly thereafter, I was listed only as a PG. A week later, I’m listed as a SG/SF. Next week I’ll be eligible at PF/C. I’m the swiss army knife of DK multi position eligibility. Who am I? Answer in the comments section for a mystery prize that will actually be nothing (surprise). The answer to this question is also in play tonight.
Shooting Guard
Favorites
C.J. McCollum (7,400 DK – 7,500 FD) – C.J. also happens to share his first two initials with yours truly. While that has nothing to do with anything, it’s an obvious indicator of why both he and I are pretty swell fellows (not swoll, swell). C.J. is priced pretty aggressively on both sites, but I don’t mind. He has flashed 55 point upside this season, and has a stellar matchup tonight. The Pelicans are average in DRtg/A, but they are 20th in SG DvP and they play at a similarly fast pace to the Blazers, which means we should see plenty of transition opportunities for both sides. McCollum also ranks fourth among shooting guards in steals this season (18), which could provide his line with a small boost tonight in this uptempo game. We also have to like the spread in this game, which Vegas has listed at 2-points right now. The Blazers did play last night, but I expect healthy minutes for the starters again tonight in what should be a closely contested game.
Others worth mentioning
DeMar DeRozan
Avery Bradley
Seth Curry – FD
Small Forward
Favorites
Paul George (8,100 DK – 8,600 FD) – The price is certainly more favorable on DK, but PG13 is in play across the industry tonight due to the massive O/U, the implied team total and the matchup. The Suns and Pacers bring a lot of goodness to the table tonight, and we will likely want to get in on the action. The Suns play at the fastest pace in the NBA, while the Pacers play at the seventh fastest pace. The Suns rank 24th in DRtg/A and 29th in SF DvP. A good strategy lately has been to take forwards against the Suns (Kenneth Faried and Wilson Chandler anyone?). George is a guy that does it all. Unfortunately, his turnovers have been up this season as well. Interestingly, the Suns and Pacers both rank in the top five in steals this season, and George is among the league leaders in steals. We can’t always predict steals (like turnovers in the NFL), but we can take educated guesses, and given the tempo of this game, there should be some opportunities for both turnovers and steals for George tonight. That helps him more than it hurts him, especially on DK. Vegas projects this game to be reasonably close (7-point spread), and if it does stay close, George is going to have a big night.
Maurice Harkless (5,000 DK – 4,600 FD) – Harkless represents a solid value on a slate where we’ll need to find as much high floor value as we can. Since Al-Farouq Aminu went out, the Blazers have played six games and Harkless has seen 29 or more minutes in five of the six including five straight. Harkless is shooting four 3pt attempts per game and is bringing down seven boards per game in his last five, which really helps his floor (and the Pelicans are a bottom five rebounding team in the NBA). At his current price, Harkless has met or exceeded value in three straight games. He’s unlikely to win the night for you, but he brings a great floor and a very good 7-8x ceiling. As for the matchup, the Pelicans rank 28th in both SF and PF DvP. I expect that Harkless will see most of his minutes at the three tonight (sending Crabbe back to the bench), but he may slide over to the four on occasion as well. Both teams play at a quick pace, and as mentioned before, the projected outcome of this game is an attractive 2-point spread.
Others worth mentioning
Kevin Durant
Kawhi Leonard
T.J. Warren
Danilo Gallinari
Wilson Chandler
Bojan Bogdanovic
Power Forward
Favorites
Blake Griffin (8,300 DK – 8,800 FD) – Blake has more than held his own against DeMarcus Cousins and the Kings in the past as he posted 27 or more real life points in four of six meetings, including both games last season (that he was healthy for). Blake should be on your narrowed down list of PF’s tonight. The Kings represent the fifth best PF DvP matchup and they represent the fifth best DRtg/A matchup. The Kings have actually slowed their pace down quite a bit this season, but because of the defensive inefficiency of the Kings and the offensive efficiency (fifth best) of the Clippers, I expect Blake to get it done in a big way tonight. Vegas has this game as a 7.5-point spread, but the game is in Sacremento, which helps alleviate some blowout risk. Still, it’s worth keeping in mind that this game could get out of hand.
Terrence Jones (6,200 DK – 5,000 FD) – IF Jones gets the start tonight, he becomes a very intriguing play (especially on FD). DraftKings has been very sharp on adjusting their pricing this season, which is making it difficult to find true value, but Jones may still fit that bill, even at his elevated price. At 6,200, we want 31 FPTS from Jones, and that is completely within reason in this matchup. Again, all of this hinges on the health of Anthony Davis. Portland ranks 25th in PF DvP, and Jones has the length and athleticism to take advantage of this spot. The Trail Blazers also rank sixth fastest in pace and are below average in DRtg/A. All of this sets up extremely nicely for Jones, especially given the O/U and spread of this game. Keep an eye on injury news, but if Jones gets the nod, he’s a strong play on both sites for cash and GPP. If Davis is healthy enough to start, he becomes an extremely interesting (though volatile) play.
Others worth mentioning
Draymond Green
LaMarcus Aldridge
Kenneth Faried
Center
Favorites
Enes Kanter (PF on FD) (4,600 DK – 4,700 FD) – The main reason that I’m excited about the FD/DK merger is because of garbage like inexplicable position assignments like this one. I’m about to stab myself in the leg with a fork. I digress. Kanter usually sees 20 minutes per game, and may well see more like 25 minutes in what could be a blowout. I like Steven Adams a lot as well, but he’s a bit pricier, though his minutes are more secure. The Nets rank 28th in C DvP, and they play at the third fastest pace in the NBA. Vegas expects the Thunder to win by 9-10 points tonight, which certainly puts a blowout firmly in play. Kanter is a fantasy point per minute monster, and he should smash tonight. Even if he only sees 18-20 minutes, I think Kanter has a floor of 22 FPTS with 40 FPTS upside if he gets some extended run. Furthermore, Kanter sports an enticing 25.67 USG rate, which is elite among Centers (curse you position assigners at FD!). Also, is there an actual job title of “position assigner” at DK or FD? I’d like to know.
Pau Gasol (6,000 DK – 6,200 FD) – The Lakers have actually been much better at defending the Center position this season as they represent an average matchup for Pau. The Lakers rank 21st in DRtg/A however, and they represent a massive pace up opponent for the Spurs. All in all, this is one of my favorite spots at C. Pau has taken on more offensive responsibility lately as he has played 31 plus minutes in four straight, while taking double-digit shot attempts in all four. Prior to that, Pau had double digit attempts in just one of eight games. Gasol has also registered at least seven boards in six straight games, which helps bolster his floor. There may be a bit of a revenge narrative tonight as Pau returns to the Staples Center in LA. I generally try avoid such narratives, but when I like the data, I don’t mind considering narratives as a small added incentive. Vegas projects a 7-point Spurs road win here, which is close enough that I am not too concerned with a blowout. If Pau continues getting minutes and USG, he’ll crush value tonight.
Others worth mentioning
Dwight Howard
Marc Gasol
DeAndre Jordan
Al Horford – if healthy
Jonas Valanciunas
Steven Adams
Tendencies To Exploit
Sometimes it pays to consider personnel. What I mean by that is, some teams start the game with a traditional big man down low and quickly shift to playing small ball. Consider teams that like to do that and consider their opponents personnel and how they will be likely to counter. Thinking in that way can often help you pinpoint unlikely sources of minutes and production.
Give RotoGrinders and me a shout out on twitter when you win the money tonight! Thanks for reading.