NBA Trend Blend: Wednesday, January 4th
Defense versus Position isn’t everything – pace isn’t everything – defensive rating isn’t everything, but the combination of trends and metrics is something; it’s the NBA Trend Blend.
Admittedly, there is no single article or tool that you can use to build perfect lineups night in and night out, but this will be another awesome article/tool that you can use to gain an edge over the competition. Some may look at one tool/trend and make decisions solely based on a narrow set of data, but we will dive in to take a deeper look at some of the best plays on the slate.
This article will feature some of my favorite plays (and occasionally overrated plays) at each position based on DvP, pace, defensive rating, and other factors.
DRtg/A – An estimate of points allowed per 100 possessions adjusted for strength of opponent offense
Pace – Possessions per game
DvP – Defense versus Position
Slate Info
Games
Seven
Highest O/U
Portland Trail Blazers @ Golden State Warriors – 224.5
Lowest O/U
Memphis Grizzlies @ Los Angeles Clippers
Highest Projected Total
Golden State Warriors – 120
Lowest Projected Total
Miami Heat – 97
Largest Spread
Golden State Warriors – 15.5-point home favorites over Portland Trail Blazers
Closest Spread
New York Knicks – 1-point home favorites over Milwaukee Bucks
Quick Thoughts
This is now the third consecutive Wednesday of taking a slightly different approach. I continue to receive a lot of positive feedback, so we’ll keep this format going each Wednesday until further notice.
Of the fourteen teams in action, we have ten of the top 14 teams in terms of DRtg/A. Only Portland, New York, Sacramento and Orlando rank below average in DRtg/A.
These plays listed aren’t meant to be the only options that you should consider, but they are intended to get you pointed in the right direction as to who the best plays on the board are at each position based on a variety of trends, rotations, injuries and other statistics. As always, feel free to comment below with thoughts and questions. Thanks for reading!
Point Guard
Favorites
Russell Westbrook versus Charlotte Hornets – 17th in PG DvP – 14th fastest pace – 11th in DRtg/A
Kemba Walker versus Oklahoma City Thunder – 20th in PG DvP – sixth fastest pace – ninth in DRtg/A
Elfrid Payton versus Atlanta Hawks – 29th in PG DvP – tenth fastest pace – fifth in DRtg/A
Michael Carter-Williams versus Cleveland Cavaliers – 24th in PG DvP – 15th fastest pace – eighth in DRtg/A
Dennis Schroder versus Orlando Magic – 21st in PG DvP – 20th fastest pace – 20th in DRtg/A
Goran Dragic versus Sacramento Kings – 10th in PG DvP – 18th fastest pace – 24th in DRtg/A
Shooting Guard
Favorites
C.J. McCollum versus Golden State Warriors – 17th in SG DvP – third fastest pace – first in DRtg/A
Klay Thompson versus Portland Trail Blazers – 19th in SG DvP – 11th fastest pace – 29th in DRtg/A
Josh Richardson versus Sacramento Kings – 25th in SG DvP – 18th fastest pace – 24th in DRtg/A
Victor Oladipo versus Charlotte Hornets – 21st in SG DvP – 14th fastest pace – 11th in DRtg/A
Malcolm Brogdon versus New York Knicks – 27th in SG DvP – ninth fastest pace – 26th in DRtg/A
Small Forward
Favorites
Carmelo Anthony versus Milwaukee Bucks – 29th in SF DvP – 21st fastest pace – 12th in DRtg/A – 16th in rebounding differential
Kevin Durant versus Portland Trail Blazers – 25th in SF DvP – 11th fastest pace – 29th in DRtg/A – 25th in rebounding differential
Andre Iguodala versus Portland Trail Blazers – 25th in SF DvP – 11th fastest pace – 29th in DRtg/A – 25th in rebounding differential
Michael Kidd-Gilchrist versus Oklahoma City Thunder – 13th in SF DvP – sixth fastest pace – ninth in DRtg/A – third in rebounding differential
Power Forward
Favorites
Draymond Green versus Portland Trail Blazers – 30th in PF DvP – 11th fastest pace – 29th in DRtg/A – 25th in rebounding differential
Jabari Parker versus New York Knicks (with Kristaps Porzingis Doubtful) – 15th in PF DvP – ninth fastest pace – 26th in DRtg/A – 11th in rebounding differential
DeMarcus Cousins versus Miami Heat – sixth in PF DvP and 22nd in C DvP – 25th fastest pace – 13th in DRtg/A – 20th in rebounding differential
Zach Randolph versus Los Angeles Clippers – 11th in PF DvP – 17th fastest pace – 10th in DRtg/A – 17th in rebounding differential
*Note – JaMychal Green is likely to miss tonight’s game, which would likely provide a minutes boost for Randolph. Also, the Clippers DRtg/A has been on a sharp and steady decline without Blake Griffin and Chris Paul.
Center
Favorites
Willie Reed versus Sacramento Kings – fourth in C DvP – 18th fastest pace – 24th in DRtg/A – 22nd in rebounding differential
Dwight Howard versus Orlando Magic – 24th in C DvP – 20th fastest pace – 20th in DRtg/A – 24th in rebounding differential
Steven Adams and Enes Kanter versus Charlotte Hornets – 23rd in C DvP – 14th fastest pace – 11th in DRtg/A – 13th in rebounding differential
Joakim Noah versus Milwaukee Bucks – seventh in C DvP – 21st fastest pace – 12th in DRtg/A – 16th in rebounding differential
Greg Monroe and John Henson versus New York Knicks – 29th in C DvP – ninth fastest pace – 26th in DRtg/A – 11th in rebounding differential
Tendencies To Exploit
It’s another medium-sized slate. Don’t ignore the obvious value as it opens up. Capitalize on injuries and how that impacts an opponents matchup. Sure, the Clippers still have intimidating defensive numbers across the board, but they are a shell of their normal defense without Griffin and Paul. Don’t just look at the numbers, but consider how injuries impact things.
Give me a shout out on twitter when you win the money tonight! Thanks for reading.