NBA Trend Blend: Wednesday, November 2nd
Defense versus Position isn’t everything – pace isn’t everything – defensive rating isn’t everything, but the combination of trends and metrics is something; it’s the NBA Trend Blend.
Admittedly, there is no single article or tool that you can use to build perfect lineups night in and night out, but this will be another awesome article/tool that you can use to gain an edge over the competition. Some may look at one tool/trend and make decisions solely based on a narrow set of data, but we will dive in to take a deeper look at some of the best plays on the slate.
This article will feature some of my favorite plays (and occasionally overrated plays) at each position based on DvP, pace, defensive rating, and other factors.
DRtg/A – An estimate of points allowed per 100 possessions adjusted for strength of opponent offense
Pace – Possessions per game
DvP – Defense versus Position
While the season is still young, I will reference statistical measurements from both this season and last season.
Point Guard
Favorites
Damian Lillard (9.6k DK – 9.9k FD) – Lillard let a lot of lineups down yesterday, not so much because of individual performance, but because his team got blow out, which limited his minutes. With that recent let down in mind along with other strong PG plays to consider, I expect Lillard’s ownership to be considerably lower than it ought to be in this spot. Yes, he’s coming off of the first game of a back-to-back, but again, the minutes were limited yesterday. Tonight, Portland faces the Phoenix Suns in Phoenix, and this game currently features what is tied for the highest O/U on the slate with just a 3.5 point spread. These are exactly the type of games we want to attack. Furthermore, the Suns rank dead last in PG DvP this season (for those worried about a small sample size, they ranked 30th last season as well). Both Portland and Phoenix are playing at a top seven pace, which should keep this game humming along back and forth. As for DRtg/A, Phoenix ranked 24th last season and are off to a well below average start this season as well. Woof.
Ish Smith (5.5k DK – 5.9k FD) – Ish is not someone that I usually get excited about rostering, but tonight is different. Jeremy Lin and the Nets will host the Pistons tonight, and that matchup alone is reason to get excited about Ish at his low(ish) price point (see what I did there?). So far this season, the Nets are playing at a top 10 pace to go along with a top five PG DvP matchup. Last season, the Nets also ranked 29th in DRtg/A as a whole, and while the numbers there are marginally better this season, I don’t see them continuing that trend. Ish is seen primarily as a distributor, but the reality is that he is averaging 13.5 shots per game to go along with 7.5 assists per game. The Pistons are not going to have a hard time scoring tonight, and Ish will be a main beneficiary of that fact. He is one of the better values at the PG position tonight, and I like him plenty in both cash and GPP.
Others worth mentioning
Chris Paul
Kemba Walker
Isaiah Thomas
Dennis Schroder
Shooting Guard
Favorites
Avery Bradley (5.8k DK – 6.5k FD) – Bradley is more of a site-specific play on DK, but I think he’s a solid play on FD as well. Bradley is also dealing with a shoulder injury, but I think he suits up tonight. Bradley has always been a good defender, but he’s shown improved shooting over the last two seasons as well. The Celtics currently have the sixth highest total on the slate, and the C’s project to push the pace more than they have to begin the season. The Bulls are right around league average in DRtg/A and in SG DvP, but Bradley should see plenty of Dwayne Wade tonight, who is well past his prime on the defensive end. At Bradley’s current price on DK, he only needs 29 FP’s to meet value, and he has exceeded 32 FP’s in all three games thus far. If he plays, he’s one of my favorite options at the position.
Others worth mentioning
Devin Booker – if he plays – GPP only
Nicolas Batum
DeMar DeRozan
James Harden
Small Forward
Favorites
Carmelo Anthony (7.5k DK – 7.5k FD) – Melo gets a dream matchup of facing the Rockets at home. This game currently owns the highest O/U on the slate, and the Knicks own the third highest projected total on the slate. Melo is affordable and owns a very healthy 28.88 USG, which bodes extremely well in this spot. So far this season, the Rockets own a DRtg/A of 131.47 – the Knicks are third worst at 118.24. I’m making two points here – the Knicks are bad at defense, and the Rockets are the worst team in the league in DRtg/A by 13. Yikes. This game is going to be packed with fantasy goodness, and even though the Knicks are an unattractive team to utilize, we need to consider at least one or two pieces here, and Melo is the one that I like the most (Houston ranked dead last in SF DvP last season).
Marcus Morris (5.8k DK – 5.9k FD) – If you’re still scared of Rondae Hollis-Jefferson’s defense, you don’t watch much basketball. Small Forwards have been dominating the Nets so far this season (second worst DvP) and Marcus Morris ought to be able to take advantage of that tonight. The Nets pose a pace up opponent for the Pistons, which should provide some extra opportunities for Morris and co. Morris is averaging 15 shots per game to go along with solid rebounding contributions. Morris currently ranks second in starting SF usage at 23.46 as well. Since this game is in Brooklyn, the blowout risk worries me less. If this game stays competitive, Morris should be able to crush value.
Others worth mentioning
Jimmy Butler
T.J. Warren
Trevor Ariza
Power Forward
Favorites
Blake Griffin (8.6k DK – 9.1k FD) – Blake is one of my favorite PF’s to roster because of his all-around game. He scores, he rebounds and he’s a phenomenal passer. Serge Ibaka is out of OKC, and Domantas Sabonis ball approach won’t be able to slow down or limit Blake tonight. The Thunder are playing at the second fastest pace in the NBA so far, while the Clippers are right at average. This will be a pace up spot for Griffin and the Clippers. OKC ranks right at average in DRtg/A and PF DvP, but they’ve faced the 76ers, Suns, and Lakers so far and none of those teams has anything like Blake Griffin at Power Forward. The best PF they’ve faced was Julius Randle who put together 20 points, nine boards, three assists and three steals against them. NBA Trend Blend, baby (said in my best Dick Vitale voice).
Kristaps Porzingis (7.2k DK – 6.8k FD) – Through three games, it seems that Kristaps is seeing (and will continue seeing) an uptick in minutes this season. Porzingis is averaging 33 minutes per game thus far, and should be in for a similar line tonight in a great spot. I’ve already addressed the dreadful defense of the Rockets, but they also represent the fifth best PF DvP matchup in the NBA and have a negative rebounding differential, which should help Kristaps pad his stats all the more. Again, we’re likely to want a piece or two of this game, and Kristaps is another solid option.
Others worth mentioning
Paul Millsap
Al-Farouq Aminu
Patrick Patterson
Center
Favorites
Dwight Howard (7.6k DK – 8.2k FD) – This is certainly a better spot on DK, but I like Dwight plenty on both sites. Last season, the Lakers posed a top five DvP matchup for opposing Centers, and while Timofey Mozgov is a slight improvement, he is highly questionable to play tonight (though I like this spot plenty either way). The Hawks and the Lakers are both top 12 teams in terms of pace, and the Lakers ranked dead last in DRtg/A last season (Luke Walton has shown a better defensive approach early on). The Lakers are 27th in defensive rebounding percentage, which should give Dwight some extra boards tonight as well. There is some blowout concern here, but the Hawks have the highest implied team total of the slate, and I expect Dwight to get his, even if he only plays 28-30 minutes.
Marc Gasol (6.1k DK – 6.8k FD) – Gasol got the night off yesterday, and should be primed for this enticing matchup at home against the Pelicans. Last season, the Pelicans were second worst in Center DvP and have gotten off to a poor start in that category this season as well. The Pelicans are also playing at the sixth fastest pace in the association so far, which should give Gasol some additional opportunities to build his stat sheet. Furthermore, Gasol has taken 13 three-point shots through three games, and he has made six of them. The three is a legitimate part of his game, and it’s just another reason to like the big man tonight. Vegas projects this game to stay within a few possessions, which should help Gasol get over the 30-minute hump. If he does, I feel confident that he will exceed value on both sites.
Others worth mentioning
Steven Adams
Cody Zeller
Jonas Valanciunas
Tendencies To Exploit
One of my favorite strategies is to roster players who disappointed in their previous game, especially if they disappointed at high ownership. While Damian Lillard won’t fly under the radar, enough people will be overcome by recency bias that they overlook him completely, even though he’s in one of the best spots possible tonight. That same notion applies to Ish Smith and many other plays on the board tonight. Be smarter than the field and don’t be afraid to take a player on a cold streak if they’re going to get minutes, usage and have a positive matchup.
Give RotoGrinders and I a shout out on twitter if/when you win the money tonight! Thanks for reading.
I welcome your thoughts and feedback as we look to make this article something useful for you throughout the NBA season.