Giants vs. Cowboys Odds, Picks, and Prediction
Giants vs. Cowboys Odds
| Giants Odds | +10 |
| Cowboys Odds | -10 |
| Over/Under | 45.5 |
| Date | Thu, Nov. 24 |
| Time | 4:30 p.m. |
| TV | FOX |
Our second Thanksgiving matchup of the day will take NFL fans to Jerry World in Arlington for an intra-division battle between the New York Giants and Dallas Cowboys. Through 11 weeks on the schedule, New York and Dallas are tied for second place in the NFC East at 7-3, with both teams trailing the Philadelphia Eagles by two games for first place in the division standings. On Thursday, oddsmakers are anticipating a Cowboys victory, pricing Dallas as 10-point home favorites on the spread.
Let’s take a deeper look at the matchup to see where NFL bettors can find value at sportsbooks in this contest.
New York Giants
Following an unexpected 6-1 start to the campaign, New York has lost two of their last three contests – having suffered defeat to the Seattle Seahawks in Week 8 and the Detroit Lions in Week 11. Through 10 games, the Giants rank 10th in offensive EPA/play, with a balanced offensive approach that ranks in the top-10 in both Dropback EPA/play and Rush EPA/play. Jones ranks 9th in QBR among qualified signal callers, but he ranks only 26th in touchdown passes and 22nd in passing yards. The offensive line is of tremendous concern for this group ahead of their Thanksgiving Day matchup against the Cowboys, with Jon Feliciano, Joshua Ezeudu, and Shane Lemieux each ruled out prior to kickoff. Tyre Phillips and Andrew Thomas are two additional members of the offensive line who are listed as questionable, with the latter having not practiced at all on Tuesday. If Thomas does suit-up at left tackle, he will be the only reliable member of this unit in pass protection, with major concerns elsewhere against a Dallas defense that leads the NFL in sacks per pass attempt in 2022.
Defensively, the Giants have struggled this fall, ranking 23rd in defensive EPA/play. The Giants have been particularly poor against opposing ground attacks, with only the Los Angeles Chargers allowing more yards-per-carry to their opponents so far this season. New York will have their hands full in this spot, trying to stop a Cowboys’ offense that ranks 8th in rushing yards per game through 11 weeks.
Dallas Cowboys
In five games played this fall, the results have been mixed for quarterback Dak Prescott, who owns an 8-to-4 touchdown-to-interception ratio and a 3-2 record in his starts. Since returning to the field from an injury in Week 7, the Cowboys’ offense ranks 4th in EPA/play – ranking 5th in Dropback EPA/play and 4th in Rush EPA/play in that span. Tony Pollard has been the star of the show out of the backfield, leading the team in rushing by 216 yards, despite receiving fewer carries on the season compared to Ezekiel Elliott. Pollard has been particularly dynamic in recent weeks, with four consecutive games of at least 80 rushing yards entering play. Facing a weak New York run defense, Pollard should be a focal point once again in Week 12, with Elliott also receiving a healthy workload as a complimentary option.
The larger concerns for Dallas in this matchup are on the defensive side of the ball, with a number of key players being questionable heading into gameday. Linebacker Anthony Barr has already been ruled out with a hamstring injury. None of Tarell Basham, Kelvin Joseph, Dante Fowler Jr. Demarcus Lawrence, and Johnathan Hankins have practiced this week – leaving them as true question marks ahead of kickoff. Micah Parsons, Dallas’ third-leading-tackler and top sack threat, was able to log a limited participation in the final practice of the week, offering hope that he will be able to take the field. Bettors would be wise to monitor these injury reports closely before locking-in action on the side or total here.
Giants vs. Cowboys – Picks & Predictions
As of this writing, there are a number of uncertainties with regard to the injury report on both sides of this matchup, making it difficult to recommend a play on the side or total with much confidence. The one certainty that bettors have as of Thursday morning is that the New York Giants run defense will be unspectacular, making all of the Dallas Cowboys rushing props worthy of consideration. Tony Pollard has posted a longest rush of at least 14 yards in eight of his last nine games, cashing the over 15.5 yards in six of those instances. It would be surprising if he did not find at least one open lane on Thanksgiving to cash the over on this prop once again.
PICK: Tony Pollard, Longest Rush – Over 15.5 yards (-105, DraftKings)
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