NFL Best Bets for Week 15: It Ain't Over 'Til It's Under
NFL Best Bets for this week’s action! This article will highlight one game-related total and one player prop under each week of the NFL season. Unders are underrated, and we’ll be taking advantage of that edge. Sit back and enjoy the sweat!
Last Week’s Results
We dropped both picks last week. Atlanta got smashed by Minnesota but hit the over on their team total by half a point. Travis Etienne did get leapfrogged by Tank Bigsby, just not in the receiving game. Etienne only saw 4 carries but also got 4 targets, catching all of them. Rough week. Let’s bounce back.
Season Record
- Game Picks: 6-8
- Prop Picks: 6-8
New Orleans Saints Under 17.5 Team Total (-120 on DraftKings)
The Saints are getting obliterated by injuries. They entered Week 14 without Chris Olave, Rashid Shaheed, and Taysom Hill. Derek Carr went down late in the game and sounds unlikely to play this week. That leaves Alvin Kamara with a collection of nobodies. Jake Haener finished the game for Carr, but Spencer Rattler started earlier in the season when Carr missed time. Neither option is ideal. The remaining pass catchers are Marquez Valdes-Scantling, Juwan Johnson, and practice squad fodder.
It’s not like New Orleans was cooking before Carr went down. They managed just 14 points against both the Rams and the Giants in the past two weeks. Those aren’t exactly imposing defenses. Washington isn’t a tough group either, but they’ve played better recently. The Commanders stifled Tennessee in Week 13 before their Week 14 bye week. Trade acquisition Marshon Lattimore is expected to make his debut this week, which should be a huge lift for the pass defense.
New Orleans averaged 15 PPG in Rattler’s three starts. And that was with all of the weapons healthy. Whether it’s Rattler or Haener under center, I’m expecting the Saints to struggle this week.
D’Andre Swift Under 53.5 Rushing Yards (-115 on BetMGM)
Swift is the exact player we need to get back on track. We hit this pick in this exact matchup back in Week 12. Swift managed just 30 yards on 13 carries against the Vikings in Week 12. He continues to struggle and might face some competition in the backfield this week.
Swift has stumbled to 3.4 yards per carry over his past 6 games. He started to cede carries to Roschon Johnson once Thomas Brown took over as offensive coordinator. Brown became the interim head coach in Week 14, but Johnson missed that contest with a concussion. If he can return this week, he’ll likely cut into Swift’s workload. Swift can’t afford to split carries in this matchup.
Minnesota has allowed the 2nd-fewest rushing yards per game. They’ve held running backs to the 7th-fewest yards per carry. More importantly, the Vikings have allowed the 3rd-lowest explosive run rate (runs of 15+ yards). Swift tends to struggle with per-carry efficiency, but he’s capable of ripping off big runs. This season, 31.2% of his rushing yards have come on explosive plays. That ranks 14th among the 61 running backs with at least 50 carries. Swift’s longest run was just 8 yards in his first game against Minnesota.
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