NFL Best Bets for Week 16: It Ain't Over 'Til It's Under
NFL Best Bets for this week’s action! This article will highlight one game-related total and one player prop under each week of the NFL season. Unders are underrated, and we’ll be taking advantage of that edge. Sit back and enjoy the sweat!
Last Week’s Results
We dropped both picks again last week. It’s been an ice-cold stretch that included another brutal loss. The refs inexplicably stopping the clock at the end of Saints vs. Commanders allowed New Orleans to run a final play. They scored a touchdown as time expired to go over their team total. Maybe they would’ve had time to spike it and run a play, but it’s crazy the refs made that error in a crucial situation. Speaking of bad decisions, D’Andre Swift somehow got 19 carries despite Chicago trailing by double-digits for much of the game. He wasn’t too efficient but managed to go over his rushing yards prop. We’re back at it this week.
Season Record
- Game Picks: 6-8
- Prop Picks: 6-8
Cleveland Browns Under 18.5 Team Total (-108 on DraftKings)
Cincinnati’s defense absolutely stinks. They allowed the tandem of Will Levis and Mason Rudolph to put up 27 points last week. This will be a true test of ineptitude facing Dorian Thompson-Robinson, who is worse than Levis and Rudolph.
We’ve seen DTR multiple times this season. He’s completed 15 of his 34 passes for 100 yards across 4 appearances. His longest look this season came against this Cincinnati squad back in Week 7. In relief of Deshaun Watson, DTR went 11-for-24, totaling 82 passing yards.
We got a decent look at DTR last season as well. Across 3 starts, he completed 57 of his 108 passes and averaged 140 passing yards per game. He maxed out at 165 passing yards, and it took 43 attempts to get there. DTR tossed 1 touchdown compared to 4 interceptions as a starter. This season, he’s been picked off 3 times. That brings his career TD:INT ratio to an egregious 1:7.
Jameis Winston has his warts, but at least there’s a path to success with him. I’m expecting this offense to take a massive step back this week. They managed just 14 points in that Week 7 matchup, and that was only because Winston came in at the end and led a late touchdown drive.
Kyle Pitts Under 26.5 Receiving Yards (-115 on BetMGM)
Pitts is coming off a “huge” game in Week 15, posting 4 catches for 28 yards. He had totaled 2 catches for 23 yards over his past 3 games. As Kirk Cousins fell off a cliff, Atlanta’s offense leaned heavily into the run game. They had a perfect 50/50 pass/run split in neutral situations over the past 4 games. The Falcons were doing everything they could to hide Cousins, which was a boost for Bijan Robinson and a downgrade for the pass catchers.
Michael Penix Jr. will take over this week. He’s a more capable quarterback could lead to Atlanta opening up the passing game, but they probably won’t need to given the matchup. The Falcons will host Drew Lock and the Giants as massive favorites. Atlanta can stick with the run-heavy approach in this spot and cruise to an easy win in the rookie’s first career start.
The Giants are also the most difficult matchup in the league for tight ends. They’ve held the position to the fewest targets, 3rd-fewest receptions, and 5th-fewest receiving yards. Even if Atlanta does chuck it a bit more than they have been, it likely won’t be to Pitts.
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