NFL Best Bets for Week 5: It Ain't Over 'Til It's Under
NFL Best Bets for this week’s action! This article will highlight one game-related total and one player prop under each week of the NFL season. Unders are underrated, and we’ll be taking advantage of that edge. Sit back and enjoy the sweat!
Last Week’s Results
I whiffed on both picks last week. Joe Flacco came in and carried the Indianapolis offense. D’Andre Swift was suddenly heavily involved and efficient. It happens.
Season Record
- Game Picks: 2-2
- Prop Picks: 3-1
Miami Dolphins Team Total Under 18.5 (-110 on Caesars)
Apparently, this offense can’t function in the slightest without Tua Tagovailoa. The combination of Skylar Thompson and Tim Boyle managed just a field goal in Week 3. Tyler Huntley took over in Week 4, stumbling to 12 points at home against Tennessee. Huntley has been confirmed as the starter this week. Best of luck to Tyreek Hill and Jaylen Waddle.
Miami put up just 184 total yards on Monday night. They managed 1 touchdown, a basically meaningless 1-yard run by Huntley in the closing minutes of a blowout. The Dolphins now head to New England on a short week.
The Patriots have struggled through the air, allowing the 5th-most passing yards per game. They’ve excelled on the ground, holding opponents to the 7th-lowest yards per carry and the 2nd-fewest yards before contact. Miami went super run-heavy in Huntley’s first start, with 30 rushing attempts to 22 pass attempts despite playing from behind for the majority of the game. There are some Huntley scrambles, including in those rushing attempts, but the Dolphins still had more run plays than dropbacks.
New England seems well-equipped to handle this current version of Miami’s offense, especially with a rest advantage.
Jakobi Meyers Under 43.5 Receiving Yards (-120 on BetMGM)
This line might feel low with Davante Adams out again, but it shouldn’t. This is a challenging matchup made more difficult by the fact that Meyers mirrored Adams’ role in Week 4.
With Adams sidelined last week, Meyers led the team with 10 targets and a massive 41.7% target share. The problem is that he also took over Adams’ alignment. Through the first 3 weeks, Meyers’ routes were perfectly split between out wide (49.5%) and the slot (49.5%). In Week 4, he ran 70.8% of his routes out wide, compared to 29.2% from the slot. Adams’ alignment this season? 70.8% out wide, 29.2% from the slot.
Patrick Surtain and this Denver secondary gobble up outside receivers. They’ve allowed the lowest yards per reception, and the 6th-lowest yards per target to players lined up out wide. The Broncos have seen the 6th-lowest target rate to receivers lined up out wide, so teams just generally avoid throwing to those players.
Regardless of alignment, Denver has done well limiting wide receivers. The Broncos are allowing the 4th-fewest targets and yards to the position. Mike Evans and DK Metcalf had their worst games of the season against this unit, and Garrett Wilson struggled last week.
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