NFL Best Bets for Week 6: It Ain't Over 'Til It's Under
NFL Best Bets for this week’s action! This article will highlight one game-related total and one player prop under each week of the NFL season. Unders are underrated, and we’ll be taking advantage of that edge. Sit back and enjoy the sweat!
Last Week’s Results
We split the picks last week. Miami stumbled their way to 15 points, which was an easy win there. Jakobi Meyers got there in garbage time, which was annoying. Will continue to fade wide receivers against Denver.
Season Record
- Game Picks: 3-2
- Prop Picks: 3-2
Tampa Bay Buccaneers vs. New Orleans Saints Under 42.5 (-120 on ESPN BET)
Derek Carr is expected to miss a few weeks, which is a tough development for an offense that is already struggling. Offensive coordinator Klint Kubiak was the talk of the league through 2 weeks, then the Saints fell off a cliff. After scoring 47 and 44 points in their first 2 games, New Orleans has totaled 49 points in the last 3 weeks.
This should be a slow game, with New Orleans looking to limit possessions. New Orleans ranks 2nd in run rate, and they’ll have a backup quarterback at the helm. Spencer Rattler will be making his first career start, which means a run-heavy offense might be even more focused on the ground game.
Running against Tampa Bay has been challenging, at least for running backs. The Bucs have allowed the 10th-fewest rushing yards per game to the position. Quarterbacks have had success on the ground, but Rattler wasn’t much of a runner in college. He totaled 150 rushing yards across two seasons at South Carolina (25 games).
New Orleans has been a bend-but-don’t-break unit on defense. They’re allowing the 8th-fewest points per game, largely due to a league-leading 25% red-zone TD rate. Tampa Bay is tied for 7th in red-zone drives, but they’re 13th in red-zone TD rate. If the Saints can continue limiting offenses to field goals, we should be in a good spot. Both of these teams rank in the bottom 6 in pace, so they’ll need to be efficient to hit this over.
Kirk Cousins Under 1.5 Rushing Attempts (-135 on BetMGM)
This is a fun one. Not necessarily a fun sweat, but a bet that has some value given the narrow route for the over to hit.
Cousins’ mobility has improved since Week 1, but it’s still an issue. He literally hasn’t had a legitimate rushing attempt all season. He has 6 “carries”, but they’ve been 5 kneel-downs and 1 botched snap. Cousins has been credited with 1 scramble this season, which is tied with Tyrod Taylor, Skylar Thompson, and Tim Boyle. Astute observers will note that those are backup quarterbacks.
Kneel-downs are the only route for Cousins. That would require Atlanta to win, but not by enough that Cousins gets pulled from the game. Chicago crushed Carolina last week and ended the game with 3 kneel-downs, but they came from Tyson Bagent, who had replaced starter Caleb Williams with the game out of hand.
It’s an extremely specific scenario needed for Cousins to reach 2 attempts. Even a kneel-down heading into halftime won’t be enough.
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