NFL Betting Picks Week 1: Player Props
The opening Sunday of the NFL season is upon us. All but six teams will play throughout the day which means there are props galore to sift through. Looking through the major online sports betting sites, I am going to pick one quarterback, running back, and receiver prop for Sunday. Here are some NFL betting tips along with the three props for this week.
NFL Betting Picks Week 1 — QB Player Prop for Chiefs at Jaguars
Patrick Mahomes Over/Under 310.5 Passing Yards (use our DraftKings promo code to get these odds)
The reigning NFL MVP, Patrick Mahomes, will begin his 2019 campaign on the road in Jacksonville. The Chiefs are 3.5-point favorites on the road with a 50.5 implied game total. Last season, the Chiefs beat the Jaguars at home 30-14 despite this being the only game where Mahomes did not throw a touchdown pass. Mahomes threw for 313 yards in the victory.
Mahomes barely slid past this number at home last season and will instead play on the road against the second-ranked defense from 2018 for opposing quarterback passing yards. The Jaguars allowed a measly 209 passing yards per game to quarterbacks last season. Mahomes averaged 318.6 yards per games last season with a 478-yard explosion against the Rams. Mahomes is the trigger man for a phenomenal offense but going on the road against this defense should limit some of the damage outside.
My Pick: Under 310.5 Passing Yards
NFL Betting Picks Week 1 — RB Player Prop for Lions at Cardinals
Kerryon Johnson Over/Under 57.5 Rushing Yards (use our DraftKings promo code to get these odds)
Kerryon Johnson might not be featured in a passing-down role but should see the bulk of early-yard rushing work. The Lions are 2.5-point road favorites against the Arizona Cardinals. The Cardinals have a new coach and a new quarterback but perhaps the same shoddy rushing defense.
The second-year back was sidelined for the last six games of 2018 after a knee injury. While playing, Johnson averaged 5.4 yards per attempt and amassed 641 yards on the ground. Johnson starred in two big victories for the Lions last season — rushing for 101 yards against New England and 158 yards against the Dolphins. The Lions seem committed to running the football with coach Matt Patricia and Johnson should receive plenty of work against the Cardinals.
The Cardinals surrendered a league-worst 2183 rushing yards in 2018 — with a pretty putrid 4.92 rushing yards allowed per attempt. The Cardinals added two pass rushers in Dee Ford and Terrell Suggs but did not add an imposing run-stuffing player up the middle. Coach Kliff Kingsbury seems to want to run 90 to 95 plays per game while the Lions will be content to run the football. Either way, an increase in plays from the Cardinals should give Johnson the extra attempts he needs to get over this prop number.
My Pick: Over 57.5 Rushing Yards
NFL Betting Picks Week 1 — WR Player Prop for Rams at Panthers
Brandin Cooks Over/Under 72.5 Receiving Yards (use our DraftKings promo code to get these odds)
The high-flying Rams offense will start their 2019 season on the road against the Carolina Panthers. Los Angeles is a 2-point road favorite in a 49.5 implied game total against the home Panthers. The Rams look to repeat their NFC Championship behind a powerful offense and progressive young coach, Sean McVay.
Brandin Cooks is featured with a pretty hefty receiving prop considering his rollercoaster type season in 2018. With the entire Rams offense healthy in the first four weeks of 2018, Cooks would have topped this prop in all four victories — compiling 87, 159, 90, and 116 receiving yards. Over the next four week, Cooks’ high point was a 74-yard day at home against the Packers. When teammate Cooper Kupp tore his ACL, one would assume Cooks would be featured more prominently. For three weeks in a row, starting in week eight, Cooks was targeted 8, 12, and 12 times and eclipsed 100 yards in each of the contests. Then, inexplicably, Cooks never exceeded 62 receiving yards for the rest of the season.
The Panthers are not a top defense against opposing pass offenses but the production from Cooks is too inconsistent for comfort with this number. He always has potential to put together a big game but the Rams have plenty of mouths to feed. Even in a great offensive showing from the Rams, Cooks could still come up short.
My Pick: Under 72.5 Receiving Yards
Be sure to use RotoGrinders’ new NFL odds comparison tool to look at NFL Week 1 lines across the industry and find out what online sports betting site has the best price for your favorite NFL Week 1 betting picks.