NFL Pick'em Pool Week 10 Confidence Rankings, Strategy, & Straight-Up Picks
In Week 1, we hit 6 of our top 7 pick’em confidence selections. In Week 2, we managed to finish 8-8 overall despite a number of notable home favorites being upset. In Week 3, we had our worst week ever in this article, with the NFL experiencing its second consecutive Black Sunday. However, we rebounded in Week 4 to hit 8 of our top 9 pick’em confidence selections. In Week 5, the 2 “big favorites” of the weekend went down, but we hit 9 of our top-12 selections. In Week 6, we kept the good times rolling, hitting 12 of 14 selections overall, including each of our top-8 confidence picks. In Week 7, we stayed hot, hitting 13 of 15 selections overall. In Week 8, we went 9-7, but more importantly, hit 7 of our top-8 confidence selections. In Week 9, we finished 12-3 and hit 10 of our top-11 selections, with our lone loss being the Saints in a 23-22 defeat.
This is my 4th year doing this pick’em and confidence pool article. Our best week ever was Week 3 of the 2021 season in which we went 15-1! That year, we correctly selected 181 of 288 games (62.9% SU). Since the inception of this article, we have correctly selected over 60% of all NFL games, with our top-6 confidence picks cashing at a significantly higher rate.
We ended 2023 on a high note, with our top-6 confidence picks going 11-1 in Week 17 and Week 18. We are locked in and ready to do everything we can in 2024 to put readers in a position to beat their friends and colleagues once again.
Below, we have our Week 10 pick’em pool strategy and confidence rankings!
2024 NFL Pick’em
Each week in this article, I will rank each of my selections in order of confidence and provide reasoning on all of my top picks.
As a disclaimer, these picks lock on Thursday afternoon for the purposes of this article, which is of course prior to getting final injury reports for the week. If looking for any last-minute thoughts or wishful changes to these selections, make sure to join the RotoGrinders Discord and follow @CommishFilmRoom on Twitter.
NFL Week 10 Pick’em Pool Confidence Rankings
Week 10 Selections
1. Kansas City Chiefs
2. Los Angeles Chargers
3. Minnesota Vikings
4. Baltimore Ravens
5. Miami Dolphins
6. San Francisco 49ers
7. Detroit Lions
8. Philadelphia Eagles
9. Chicago Bears
10. New York Giants
11. New York Jets
12. Atlanta Falcons
13. Pittsburgh Steelers
14. Indianapolis Colts
NFL Pick’em Pool Strategy Week 10
Chiefs (vs. Broncos)
Until proven otherwise, it’s difficult to have any other team at the top of confidence pools on a weekly basis. The Chiefs have played the vast majority of their season without their top-2 running backs and their top-2 wide receivers, but they still remain the NFL’s only undefeated team. This Kansas City offense lacks the explosive play-making ability of past seasons, but Patrick Mahomes has effectively managed this offense in a way that has them converting 3rd downs at the highest rate in the entire league. Dominating the time of possession with long drives has enabled their defense to consistently play at a high level without being overtaxed as well.
Denver had 4 turnovers on downs this past weekend against Baltimore, so they look more vulnerable than they truly are. That being said, they are still led by a rookie quarterback who will have to go into one of the most hostile environments in the NFL in Week 10. Mahomes and company should be able to eke out another competitive victory here.
Chargers (vs. Titans)
Will Levis was a full participant in practice on Thursday, which is good news for Chargers’ fans – yes, you read that correctly. Levis hasn’t posted a positive EPA/play in any individual game that he has played in so far this season. The Titans have scored 17 points or fewer in each of the 4 games in which he has thrown more than 4 passes. Meanwhile, the Chargers are quietly 5-3, with 2 of their 3 losses coming by a single score against teams that are currently leading their respective divisions. If Justin Herbert can simply play a clean game of football this weekend, the Chargers should be able to collect their 3rd consecutive victory.
Vikings (vs. Jaguars)
The Jaguars are rapidly descending to the bottom of NFL standings, with no indication that their free fall is going to stop anytime soon. After trading away star LT Cam Robinson to Minnesota, there are now reports that QB Trevor Lawrence is “unlikely” to play this weekend. Lawrence’s absence would force backup Mac Jones into action, who went 2-9 as the starter in New England last fall, supported by one of the league’s best defenses. He has a much less capable defense in Jacksonville, making it highly unlikely that we see him deliver an upset win in this spot. In limited action as a reserve in 2024, Jones has completed 6 of 9 pass attempts for only 28 passing yards. He faces a tough test against a strong Minnesota defense in Week 10, even more so if LB Blake Cashman is able to return to the field for the Vikings.
Ravens (vs. Bengals)
Joe Burrow and the Bengals enter play this week fresh off of a 41-24 win over the Raiders, but that doesn’t mean that this team is a Super Bowl contender. Cincinnati is 0-4 against teams that rank in the top 15 in offensive DVOA this season, allowing 35.5 points per game in those losses. Even more troubling, 3 of those 4 games have been played at home. On Thursday, Burrow and company will have to go on the road to play the league’s top offense, a team that they allowed 41 points and 520 yards of total offense to in Week 5. Further complicating matters is the absence of star WR Tee Higgins and starting LT Orlando Brown, Jr. Baltimore’s defense is always a concern, but they should be able to take care of business against a depleted Cincinnati offense.
Dolphins (vs. Rams)
Tua Tagovailoa is back. He finished Week 9 ranked 2nd in EPA/play and 1st in success rate among qualified quarterbacks. He led Miami’s offense to 27 points, including 26 first downs and 373 yards of total offense. If not for a costly lost fumble, the Dolphins might have come away with a road upset victory against their division rivals. In Week 10, they get an easier matchup against the Rams, a team that is much closer to mediocre than good despite the fact that they have won their last 3 games. The Rams were actually outgained in 2 of those wins by substantial margins but benefited from good luck in the turnover department to get the job done. They are unlikely to be so fortunate against Tagovailoa and the Dolphins this week.
2024 Weekly Results
- Week 1: 7-9
- Week 2: 8-8
- Week 3: 6-10
- Week 4: 11-5
- Week 5: 9-5
- Week 6: 12-2
- Week 7: 13-2
- Week 8: 9-7
- Week 9: 12-3
Image Credit: Getty Images