NFL Pick'em Pool Week 12 Confidence Rankings, Strategy, & Straight-Up Picks
Each week in this article, Nick Galaida will rank each of his selections in order of confidence and also provide reasoning on all of his top picks. As a disclaimer, these picks lock on Thursday afternoon for the purposes of this article, which is, of course, prior to getting final injury reports for the week. If looking for any last-minute thoughts or wishful changes to these selections, make sure to join the RotoGrinders Discord and follow @CommishFilmRoom on Twitter.
After going 14-1 (93.3%) in Week 11, our top-10 confidence picks this season are now 78-31 (71.6%) in this article. Our lone misstep this past weekend was the Chiefs over the Broncos – a game that came down to a field goal as time expired.
This is my 5th year doing this pick’em and confidence pool article. Our best week ever was Week 3 of the 2021 season, in which we went 15-1! That year, we correctly selected 181 of 271 regular season games (66.8% SU), excluding the Week 10 tie between the Steelers and Lions.
Since the inception of this article, we have correctly selected 64% of all NFL games, with our top 6 confidence picks cashing at a significantly higher rate. Only 10 times in 83 weeks have we finished with a losing record in this weekly article.
We are locked in for Week 12 and ready to do everything we can to put readers in a position to beat their friends and colleagues once again.
Below, we have our Week 12 pick’em pool strategy and confidence rankings!
NFL Week 12 Pick’em Pool Confidence Rankings
Week 12 Selections
1. Baltimore Ravens
2. Seattle Seahawks
3. Detroit Lions
4. Los Angeles Rams
5. Buffalo Bills
6. Kansas City Chiefs
7. Green Bay Packers
8. San Francisco 49ers
9. New England Patriots
10. Philadelphia Eagles
11. Las Vegas Raiders
12. Pittsburgh Steelers
13. Arizona Cardinals
14. New Orleans Saints
NFL Pick’em Pool Strategy: Week 12
Ravens (vs. Jets)
QB Tyrod Taylor will replace QB Justin Fields under center this weekend for the Jets, but that change doesn’t project to meaningfully alter the likelihood of an upset in this matchup. Taylor’s overall numbers from his spot start in Week 3 don’t look that bad – he went 26 of 36 for 197 passing yards and 2 touchdowns. However, he turned the ball over twice, which included a costly pick-6 right before the half. In his only other extended run this fall, Taylor threw 2 interceptions and took 3 sacks against the Panthers.
In 4 games since their bye, the Ravens have forced 8 turnovers. Their defense is healthier than it was a month ago, and there has been a clear emphasis on taking the ball away from their opponents.
Baltimore has the better quarterback and the better defense in this game – particularly after New York traded away two of their defensive cornerstones at the deadline. The Ravens should win this game comfortably.
Seahawks (vs. Titans)
In 10 games this season, the Titans have been held to fewer than 300 yards of total offense 8 times. Only once have they held their opponent to fewer than 300 yards. Tennessee has been outgained in every contest they have played in 2025, and they have only 1 game in which they have finished with a positive net success rate.
This past weekend, the Seahawks lost by 2 points against the Rams, but they turned the ball over 4 times and were only 1-for-4 in the red zone. They dominated the game on a down-to-down basis, finishing with a +9.1% net success rate. Through 11 weeks, teams are 60-10 (85.7%) SU when finishing with better than an +8.0% net success rate in an individual game. It took an outlier performance, in terms of turnovers, for Seattle to come up just short on Sunday.
There is some concern about the state of Seattle’s offensive line heading into Week 12, after losing LG Greg Zabel and C Jalen Sundell to injury. Still, QB Cam Ward and company have shown few signs of life to this point in the campaign. Even if the Seahawks defense has to be leaned upon more than usual this weekend, the end result should be a Seattle victory.
Lions (vs. Giants)
As of this writing, there is optimism that QB Jaxson Dart could return to the field this weekend for the Giants. Still, his presence isn’t likely to be enough for the Giants to seriously threaten to pull an upset in this spot.
The Lions lost 16-9 to the Eagles on Sunday Night Football in Week 11, but if anything, that loss should have bettors even more confident in their abilities in Week 12. Since Week 7, Philadelphia’s defense ranks 4th in EPA/play and 7th in success rate. During that same stretch, the Giants defense ranks 30th in EPA/play and 26th in success rate.
It’s difficult to win on the road in the NFL. It’s even more difficult when a team’s defense is unable to get off of the field in key situations. The Lions have also been a juggernaut following a loss under HC Dan Campbell. Since 2022, they are 13-0 SU and ATS in those spots.
Rams (vs. Buccaneers)
CB Jamel Dean suffered an injury in the 1st quarter this past weekend against the Bills and never returned. As of this writing, he still hasn’t practiced this week for Tampa Bay. Through 11 weeks, Dean leads all players at his position in PFF coverage grade.
Dean exited early with an injury in Week 4 after playing only 14 snaps, then was forced to miss the team’s Week 5 game against Seattle, too. The Buccaneers allowed 31+ points in both of those matchups. In Week 5 against the Seahawks, the Buccaneers defense allowed a season-high 58.3% success rate and +.344 EPA/play. Their next worst defensive performance of the year came in Week 10, with Dean playing only 2 snaps. Tampa Bay allowed a 49.1% success rate and +.303 EPA/play in that game.
Suffice it to say, the Rams should be able to win this game, no matter how many points it takes.
Bills (vs. Texans)
QB Davis Mills will start for the Texans on Thursday, with QB C.J. Stroud still not out of the league’s concussion protocol. Houston is 2-0 SU since Mills took over for Stroud, but it’s not exactly the most impressive sample to write home about.
Mills and company trailed Jacksonville 29-10 entering the 4th quarter in Week 10, before they improbably outscored the Jaguars 26-0 in the final 15 minutes. In Week 11, the Texans needed a game-winning field goal as time expired against the 1-9 Titans, despite Tennessee losing multiple players to injury throughout that game.
QB Josh Allen and the Bills have been strong offensively for much of the season. If they can do a halfway decent job containing Houston’s ground attack this evening, they should be able to come away with a win.
2025 Weekly Results
- Week 1: 9-7
- Week 2: 11-5
- Week 3: 6-10
- Week 4: 11-4-1
- Week 5: 6-8
- Week 6: 8-7
- Week 7: 10-5
- Week 8: 8-5
- Week 9: 8-6
- Week 10: 8-6
- Week 11: 14-1
Image Credit: Imagn