NFL Pick'em Pool Week 15 Confidence Rankings, Strategy, & Straight-Up Picks
Each week in this article, Nick Galaida will rank each of his selections in order of confidence and also provide reasoning on all of his top picks. As a disclaimer, these picks lock on Thursday afternoon for the purposes of this article, which is, of course, prior to getting final injury reports for the week. If looking for any last-minute thoughts or wishful changes to these selections, make sure to join the RotoGrinders Discord and follow @CommishFilmRoom on Twitter.
We are officially in the homestretch of the 2025 NFL regular season, with less than a month of games remaining before the playoffs. Of course, that means it’s time for Confidence and Pick’em pool participants to make their final push up the leaderboard in their respective pools.
After going 14-1 (93.3%) in Week 11, we followed that up by hitting 8 of our top 9 confidence selections in Week 12! In Week 13, we finished 11-5, bringing our 4-week record to 43-16 (72.9%). We once again hit our top 4 recommendations in Week 14 and finished 8-6 overall.
This is my 5th year doing this pick’em and confidence pool article. Our best week ever was Week 3 of the 2021 season, in which we went 15-1! That year, we correctly selected 181 of 271 regular season games (66.8% SU), excluding the Week 10 tie between the Steelers and Lions.
Since the inception of this article, we have correctly selected 64% of all NFL games, with our top 6 confidence picks cashing at a significantly higher rate. Only 10 times in 86 weeks have we finished with a losing record in this weekly article.
We are locked in for Week 15 and ready to do everything we can to put readers in a position to beat their friends and colleagues once again.
Below, we have our Week 15 pick’em pool strategy and confidence rankings!
NFL Week 15 Pick’em Pool Confidence Rankings
Week 15 Selections
1. Seattle Seahawks
2. San Francisco 49ers
3. Philadelphia Eagles
4. Chicago Bears
5. Jacksonville Jaguars
6. Houston Texans
7. Dallas Cowboys
8. Los Angeles Rams
9. Tampa Bay Buccaneers
10. Kansas City Chiefs
11. Washington Commanders
12. Baltimore Ravens
13. Buffalo Bills
14. Denver Broncos
15. New Orleans Saints
16. Pittsburgh Steelers
NFL Pick’em Pool Strategy: Week 15
Seahawks (vs. Colts)
There are a lot of heavy favorites in Week 14, but none more deserving than the Seahawks. Seattle has finished each of their last 6 games with a +9.1% net success rate or better. They enter the weekend as the league’s best defense by DVOA and will be facing a backup quarterback after Daniel Jones suffered a season-ending injury last Sunday.
Seattle has the better quarterback, the better defense, and the better special teams in this matchup. It would likely take a number of unforeseen events for the Colts to have a pathway to an upset in Week 15.
49ers (vs. Titans)
The Titans earned their 2nd win of the season in Week 14 against the Browns, but not because they necessarily outplayed their opponent. Tennessee finished the game with a -8.5% net success rate and was outgained by 120 yards. Through 13 games this year, the Titans still haven’t finished a single game with more total yards than their opponent. Only twice have they managed more than 300 yards of total offense, and only twice have they held their opponent to fewer than 300 yards.
Brock Purdy has been very good since returning from injury, posting a positive EPA/play in each of his first 3 games back. Cam Ward only has 3 games all season in which he’s finished with a positive EPA/play.
The 49ers should roll in this one.
Eagles (vs. Raiders)
The Eagles have lost 3 games in a row for the first time since 2023, but there are reasons to think the sky isn’t falling – at least not completely. They lost to the Chargers this past Monday, but they outgained them by 90 yards, averaged 1.6 more yards per play, and finished with 3 more first downs. It was 5 turnovers that ultimately led to their downfall, including a Jalen Hurts interception in overtime, with Philadelphia threatening to score.
There is some perceived optimism around the Raiders this week with LT Kolton Miller returning to practice and Kenny Pickett appearing likely to make his first start of the season under center. Still, this is a defense that ranks 19th in DVOA and just allowed Denver to post a season-high 56.8% success rate against them in Week 14.
Philadelphia is 18-5 SU at home since the beginning of 2023 during the regular season. They have no excuse not to be 19-5 SU after this upcoming Sunday.
Bears (vs. Browns)
The good news for the Browns is that Shedeur Sanders looked every bit like an NFL starting quarterback in Week 14 against the Titans. The less fortunate news is that Cleveland is likely to be without at least 2 starting offensive linemen against Chicago, and perhaps more.
Sanders put together a strong showing against a bad Tennessee defense in weather conditions that make defense challenging this past weekend, but he faces an entirely different challenge in Week 15, on the road against a team on the verge of a playoff berth.
In Sanders’ first 3 appearances this fall, he failed to crack a 30% success rate in any of those individual games and looked certifiably like the worst starting quarterback in the NFL. He will have to prove that he can replicate last week’s performance before people truly start to take his ascension seriously.
Jaguars (vs. Jets)
At practice on Thursday, Brady Cook and Adrian Martinez were the only quarterbacks in uniform for the Jets. Cook relieved Tyrod Taylor in Week 14, finishing with a dismal 30.8% success rate and the weekend’s worst EPA/play among qualified quarterbacks. Martinez has never thrown a pass in a regular season NFL game.
The Jaguars are a flawed football team, but they are an aggressive defense that has experienced a lot of success forcing turnovers in 2025. They are more than capable of putting Cook and/or Martinez in uncomfortable spots in this matchup. There is a reason that Jacksonville is such a heavy favorite on Sunday.
2025 Weekly Results
- Week 1: 9-7
- Week 2: 11-5
- Week 3: 6-10
- Week 4: 11-4-1
- Week 5: 6-8
- Week 6: 8-7
- Week 7: 10-5
- Week 8: 8-5
- Week 9: 8-6
- Week 10: 8-6
- Week 11: 14-1
- Week 12: 8-6
- Week 13: 11-5
- Week 14: 8-6
Image Credit: Imagn