NFL Pick'em Pool Week 17 Confidence Rankings, Strategy, & Straight-Up Picks
Each week in this article, Nick Galaida will rank each of his selections in order of confidence and also provide reasoning on all of his top picks. As a disclaimer, these picks lock on Thursday afternoon for the purposes of this article, which is, of course, prior to getting final injury reports for the week. If looking for any last-minute thoughts or wishful changes to these selections, make sure to join the RotoGrinders Discord and follow @CommishFilmRoom on Twitter.
There are only 2 weeks remaining in this year’s NFL regular season, which means it’s now or never for those still fighting at the top of their Pick’em and Confidence pool leaderboards. This weekend, there are 7 favorites of at least a touchdown, but only 1 of those teams is at home – picking a few select upsets might be worth the risk this weekend!
Since Week 10, we are 72-33 (68.6%) in this article! Overall, we have hit 14 of our 15 top-ranked selections in 2025 and 71.1% of our top-10 recommendations.
We went 14-1 in Week 11, hit 8 of our top-9 confidence selections in Week 12, finished 11-5 in Week 13, hit our top-4 recommendations in Week 15 and went 8-4 on our top recommendations in Week 16!
This is my 5th year doing this pick’em and confidence pool article. Since 2021, we are 87-41 (68.0%) SU during the final two weeks of the regular season.
We are locked in for Week 17 and ready to do everything we can to put readers in a position to beat their friends and colleagues once again.
Below, we have our Week 17 pick’em pool strategy and confidence rankings!
NFL Week 17 Pick’em Pool Confidence Rankings
Week 17 Selections
1. Denver Broncos
2. New England Patriots
3. Detroit Lions
4. Los Angeles Rams
5. Seattle Seahawks
6. Jacksonville Jaguars
7. Tampa Bay Buccaneers
8. Dallas Cowboys
9. Cincinnati Bengals
10. San Francisco 49ers
11. Houston Texans
12. Buffalo Bills
13. Tennessee Titans
14. New York Giants
15. Green Bay Packers
16. Cleveland Browns
NFL Pick’em Pool Strategy: Week 17
Broncos (vs. Chiefs)
Chris Oladokun will start for the Chiefs in Week 17, with all available evidence indicating that the Chiefs are in full tank mode. The team has 3 offensive linemen, their first and second string quarterback, top wide receiver, and two starting cornerbacks on injured reserve.
Denver’s defense has held their opponent to a 42.9% Success Rate or lower in all but 1 game since Week 2. Kansas City’s offense hasn’t posted higher than a 42.6% Success Rate since Week 12, and they haven’t sniffed 50% since Week 8.
This shouldn’t be much of a battle, with Denver fighting for the top seed in the AFC playoff picture and Kansas City having most of their top talent unavailable.
Patriots (vs. Jets)
On Wednesday, Justin Fields was placed on injured reserve, which means Brady Cook is in line to start for the Jets once again. There have been 32 quarterbacks who have logged at least 50 snaps since Brady Cook debuted in Week 14. Since that point, Cook ranks 32nd in EPA/play, 32nd in Success Rate, and 29th in Air Yards. Cook hasn’t come close to finishing a single game with a positive EPA/play, and he’s had worse than a 31% Success Rate in 2 of his 3 appearances.
New England has a lengthy early-week injury report, so they get demoted to the No. 2 confidence spot this week, but they should be able to find a way to win this game.
Lions (vs. Vikings)
In Max Brosmer’s lone start this season, he posted the 2nd-worst game by EPA/play for a starting quarterback in 2025. He threw 4 interceptions and led the Vikings to 0 points against the Seahawks in Week 13. When Brosmer entered in relief of J.J. McCarthy this past weekend, he once again finished with a negative EPA/play and had an abysmal 30.0% Success Rate.
The primary concern in this matchup is that Minnesota’s pass defense has been as good as any team in football during the second half of the season. Jared Goff and the injury-depleted Lions are favored for a reason, but there is at least a rational path to an unlikely upset if they don’t take care of the football on Thursday.
Detroit should win this football game, but they have more flaws than the top-2 teams on this week’s list.
Rams (vs. Falcons)
If the Seahawks and 49ers both win on Sunday, the Rams will be mathematically eliminated from winning the NFC West, which would leave them playing “meaningless” football during the final two weeks of the regular season. That is why they are 4th on this list in Week 17.
Regardless of what happens on Sunday, it stands to reason that HC Sean McVay will play his starters one more game, if only because the entire week of practice and preparation has been done with Matthew Stafford as the team’s starting quarterback. It also wouldn’t make much sense to give his team two full weeks off before opening the postseason on the road.
As long as the Rams have their starters on the field in this matchup, they should be able to do enough to earn a victory.
Seahawks (vs. Panthers)
Transitive arguments aren’t the greatest line of reasoning to evaluate NFL head-to-head matchups, but it’s worth noting that the Panthers finished their Week 13 game against the Rams with a (-21.5%) Net Success Rate, which is the 10th-worst mark for a team in any game this fall. Of course, the Seahawks just beat those same Rams this past Thursday.
It’s not just the Rams game, though. Carolina also finished with a negative Net Success Rate in Weeks 10 and 15 against the Saints, Week 11 against the Falcons, and Week 12 against the 49ers. They have finished with higher than a +1.0% Net Success Rate since Week 7 against the Jets.
Meanwhile, Seattle has finished 8 consecutive games with a +3.4% Net Success Rate or better – a stretch featuring 2 games against the Rams. There is always risk with a West Coast team traveling across the country for a 1:00 p.m. ET kickoff, but there is little doubt as to which is the better team in this matchup.
2025 Weekly Results
- Week 1: 9-7
- Week 2: 11-5
- Week 3: 6-10
- Week 4: 11-4-1
- Week 5: 6-8
- Week 6: 8-7
- Week 7: 10-5
- Week 8: 8-5
- Week 9: 8-6
- Week 10: 8-6
- Week 11: 14-1
- Week 12: 8-6
- Week 13: 11-5
- Week 14: 8-6
- Week 15: 13-3
- Week 16: 8-8
Image Credit: Imagn