NFL Pick'em Pool Week 18 Confidence Rankings, Strategy, & Straight-Up Picks
Big underdogs wreaked havoc on pick’em and confidence pool players early in 2024, which led to our worst start ever in this article. However, we have rebounded since that point, with our top selections each week since Week 4 hitting at an extremely high rate. Here are our top-ranked selections records since that point.
- Week 4: 8-1
- Week 5: 9-3
- Week 6: 12-2
- Week 7: 13-2
- Week 8: 7-1
- Week 9: 10-1
- Week 10: 8-0
- Week 11: 6-2
- Week 12: 6-3
- Week 13: 7-0
- Week 14: 6-0
- Week 15: 8-1
- Week 16: 7-2
- Week 17: 8-0
This is my 4th year doing this pick’em and confidence pool article. Our best week ever was Week 3 of the 2021 season in which we went 15-1! That year, we correctly selected 181 of 288 games (62.9% SU). Since the inception of this article, we have correctly selected over 60% of all NFL games, with our top 6 confidence picks cashing at a significantly higher rate.
We are locked in for Week 18 and ready to do everything we can to put readers in a position to beat their friends and colleagues once again.
Below, we have our Week 18 pick’em pool strategy and confidence rankings!
2025 NFL Pick’em
Each week in this article, I will rank each of my selections in order of confidence and provide reasoning on all of my top picks.
As a disclaimer, these picks lock on Thursday afternoon for the purposes of this article, which is, of course, prior to getting final injury reports for the week. If looking for any last-minute thoughts or wishful changes to these selections, make sure to join the RotoGrinders Discord and follow @CommishFilmRoom on Twitter.
NFL Week 18 Pick’em Pool Confidence Rankings
Week 18 Selections
1. Baltimore Ravens
2. Tampa Bay Buccaneers
3. Denver Broncos
4. Washington Commanders
5. Green Bay Packers
6. Seattle Seahawks
7. Atlanta Falcons
8. Indianapolis Colts
9. Los Angeles Chargers
10. Cincinnati Bengals
11. Arizona Cardinals
12. New York Jets
13. Minnesota Vikings
14. Tennessee Titans
15. Philadelphia Eagles
16. Buffalo Bills
NFL Pick’em Pool Strategy Week 18
Ravens (vs. Browns)
The Ravens are a 20-point favorite as of this writing, and for good reason. Kevin Stefanski announced earlier today that Bailey Zappe will start at quarterback for the Browns, with Dorian Thompson-Robinson likely to mix in at some point as well.
Since the beginning of last season, Zappe ranks 68th in success rate and Thompson-Robinson ranks 65th in success rate, among 68 quarterbacks with at least 75+ plays logged. Zappe and Thompson-Robinson rank 68th and 67th respectively in EPA/play during that stretch as well.
Lamar Jackson and company simply need a win or tie on Saturday to clinch the AFC North division title and the No. 3 seed in the playoffs. In the last 5 years, teams favored by 18 points or more are 6-0 SU, making this an easy top confidence play of the week.
Buccaneers (vs. Saints)
Make no mistake, the Saints have been doing all they can to win football games in recent weeks – they simply don’t have much talent. New Orleans won’t roll over in Week 18, but they are likely to be overwhelmed once again by a superior opponent if Spencer Rattler ends up starting at quarterback, which is the expectation as of Friday afternoon. This season, Rattler ranks 46th in EPA/play, 45th in success rate, and 46th in CPOE among 47 quarterbacks to log 75+ plays.
Playing at home this weekend, Tampa Bay can clinch the NFC South division title with a win. There is some concern for the defense, with CB Jamel Dean and S Antoine Winfield Jr. both ruled out ahead of kickoff this weekend, but the lack of offensive weapons for the Saints make those absences less of an issue.
Baker Mayfield is, by far, the better quarterback in this matchup, and he’s surrounded by the better supporting cast. The Buccaneers should be able to take care of business.
Broncos (vs. Chiefs)
Patrick Mahomes, Travis Kelce, Chris Jones, Trent McDuffie, Nick Bolton, Kareem Hunt, Isiah Pacheco, George Karlaftis, Justin Reid, Drue Tranquill, and other key contributors are likely to rest in Week 18 for the Chiefs, with the team having already clinched the No. 1 seed and home field advantage throughout the AFC playoffs. As a result, Carson Wentz will be making his first start since Week 18 of last season, and he will be surrounded by a group of (mostly) role players on the offensive side of the ball.
On the other side of this matchup, Bo Nix and the Broncos need a win to clinch a playoff berth and will be playing all of their healthy starters. Denver is 5-2 at home this season, with both of their losses coming by one score to teams that have already secured their ticket to the postseason. The Broncos should be able to fend off Wentz and the rest of Kansas City’s second unit.
Commanders (vs. Cowboys)
Asked earlier this week about his plans for Week 18, Dan Quinn told the media, “We’re going after it [No. 6 seed] as hard as we can… we recognize having the 6th seed and going into the playoffs with that is a good thing. So we’re going to fight like hell to keep that.” Meanwhile, Mike McCarthy hasn’t committed to a starting quarterback for this upcoming week and seems to be treating this game more like a tryout than a game where the scoreboard is the most important grading criteria.
Whether Cooper Rush or Trey Lance starts on Sunday doesn’t really matter. Neither quarterback offers Dallas’ offense much upside, especially with star WR CeeDee Lamb already having been shut down for the year. Jayden Daniels and the Commanders have publicly committed to going after the No. 6 seed, aiming to avoid a first-round matchup with the Eagles. They are favored by a touchdown for a reason.
Packers (vs. Bears)
Matt LaFleur told the media earlier this week that he plans to play all of his healthy starters in Week 18 against the Bears. The tricky thing for pick’em pool participants is that Green Bay only stands to benefit in the standings this weekend if they win and Washington loses. Thus, there is some risk here that LaFleur could pull key starters in the second half of this contest if they are scoreboard-watching and see that the Commanders have a comfortable lead.
Green Bay is undoubtedly the more talented team in this NFC North battle, but they get pushed down this list a little bit due to the uncertainty surrounding how they could handle the end of this game. Caleb Williams and all of Chicago’s healthy starters will reportedly take the field – and they would certainly love nothing more than to put an end to their 10-game losing streak before heading home for the winter. This is unlikely to be a cakewalk for the Packers on Sunday, but they should win if they decide that’s important to them.
2024 Weekly Results
- Week 1: 7-9
- Week 2: 8-8
- Week 3: 6-10
- Week 4: 11-5
- Week 5: 9-5
- Week 6: 12-2
- Week 7: 13-2
- Week 8: 9-7
- Week 9: 12-3
- Week 10: 9-5
- Week 11: 9-5
- Week 12: 6-7
- Week 13: 11-5
- Week 14: 9-4
- Week 15: 11-5
- Week 16: 10-6
- Week 17: 10-6
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