NFL Pick'em Pool Week 5 Confidence Rankings, Strategy, & Straight-Up Picks
Each week in this article, Nick Galaida will rank each of his selections in order of confidence and also provide reasoning on all of his top picks. As a disclaimer, these picks lock before the first game of the week for the purposes of this article, which is, of course, prior to getting final injury reports for the week. If looking for any last-minute thoughts or wishful changes to these selections, make sure to join the RotoGrinders Discord and follow @CommishFilmRoom on Twitter.
Week 5 promises to bring plenty of exciting football, with a number of marquee matchups around the NFL.
The Eagles and Jaguars will get the action going on Sunday, playing in London at 9:30 AM ET. The Bears and Packers will meet at 1:00 PM ET, with the 49ers and Seahawks renewing their rivalry in the mid-afternoon window.
Monday Night Football will feature a potential Super Bowl preview, with Josh Allen and the Bills battling Matthew Stafford and the Rams.
This is my 6th year doing this pick’em and confidence pool article. Since 2021, we have correctly predicted the winner of 64% of all NFL regular-season games. In 2025, this article went 17-1 on its top prediction of the week and 57-14 (80.3%) on top-4 selections.
We are locked in and ready to do everything we can to put readers in a position to beat their friends and colleagues once again. Below, we have our Week 5 pick’em pool strategy and confidence rankings!
NFL Week 5 Pick’em Pool Confidence Rankings
Week 5 Selections
1. Cincinnati Bengals
2. Dallas Cowboys
3. Houston Texans
4. Detroit Lions
5. Jacksonville Jaguars
6. Los Angeles Rams
7. Pittsburgh Steelers
8. New England Patriots
9. San Francisco 49ers
10. Minnesota Vikings
11. Denver Broncos
12. Chicago Bears
13. New York Jets
14. Baltimore Ravens
15. New York Giants
NFL Pick’em Pool Strategy: Week 5
Bengals (at Dolphins)
The Dolphins have finished each of their first 4 games with a -6.7% Net Success Rate or worse. Last season, teams with a -6.7% Net Success Rate or worse in a game went 29-119 SU (.196 win percentage).
Joe Burrow and company have lost each of their last 2 games, but they had a +5.2% Net Success Rate in Week 3 against the Steelers and a +4.7% Net Success Rate in Week 4 against the Jaguars.
Cincinnati is better than their recent results suggest. Miami continues to look like one of the worst NFL teams we have seen in the last 10 years.
Cowboys (vs. Buccaneers)
The Buccaneers nearly pulled off an upset victory at home against the injury-plagued Packers in Week 3 with undrafted free agent Jalon Daniels at quarterback, but they still scored only 14 points and had only 275 yards of total offense.
Dallas had 415 yards of total offense in Week 3 against Baltimore and 399 yards of total offense in Week 4 against Houston.
Even if the Buccaneers defense plays well tonight, it’s difficult to see Daniels leading the offense to enough points to seriously threaten a road upset in this spot against a high-powered Dallas offense.
Texans (at Titans)
The Texans don’t have a win yet this season, but they have finished each of their first 4 games with a positive Net Success Rate, indicating that they are better than their current record reflects.
The Titans, also 0-4 SU this season, had a -4.8% Net Success Rate against the Ravens in Week 4, despite Lamar Jackson not playing in the 2nd half.
C.J. Stroud has posted a 48.5% success rate or better in 3 of his first 4 games. Meanwhile, Cam Ward doesn’t have a single game with better than a 45% success rate through the air.
The Texans have the better quarterback and more talent on both sides of the ball. They should finally be able to break into the win column this weekend.
Lions (at Cardinals)
The Lions have one of the league’s worst defenses, which proved to be problematic in their Week 2 loss against the Bills and their Week 4 loss against the Panthers. That said, they also have one of the league’s best offenses, ranking 6th in EPA/play and 3rd in success rate. The Cardinals have a similarly deficient defense as the Lions but a much less potent offensive attack – ranking 17th in offensive EPA/play and 11th in success rate.
The Lions are a flawed football team, but they have more talent than the injury-plagued Cardinals. This is a good bounce-back spot for Jared Goff and company.
Jaguars (vs. Eagles)
The Eagles certainly don’t look like a team deserving of their 2-2 SU record this season. They have finished each of their first 4 games with a -2.0% Net Success Rate or worse. The Eagles are 1 of only 3 teams in the NFL to not finish a game with a positive Net Success Rate this season – the others being the historically-bad Dolphins and the Steelers.
The Eagles were outgained by 127 yards in Week 3 against the Bears and 243 yards in Week 4 against the Rams. Last season, teams that were outgained by 125+ yards in a game went 11-77 SU (.125 win percentage).
Simply put, there isn’t much evidence to suggest that the Eagles are a good football team right now.
2026 Weekly Results
- Week 1: 11-5
- Week 2: 10-6
- Week 3: 8-8
- Week 4: 6-10
Image Credit: Imagn