NFL Pick'em Pool Week 6 Confidence Rankings, Strategy, & Straight-Up Picks
Each week in this article, Nick Galaida will rank each of his selections in order of confidence and also provide reasoning on all of his top picks. As a disclaimer, these picks lock before the first game of the week for the purposes of this article, which is, of course, prior to getting final injury reports for the week. If looking for any last-minute thoughts or wishful changes to these selections, make sure to join the RotoGrinders Discord and follow @CommishFilmRoom on Twitter.
Week 6 of the NFL regular season begins tonight with a potential Super Bowl preview between two of the league’s best defenses: the Seattle Seahawks and Denver Broncos.
The league’s international tour continues this weekend too, with C.J. Stroud and the Texans facing Trevor Lawrence and the Jaguars in London. Expect another weekend of exciting football across the league!
This is my 6th year doing this pick’em and confidence pool article. Since 2021, we have correctly predicted the winner of 64% of all NFL regular season contests. In 2025, this article went 17-1 on its top prediction of the week and 57-14 (80.3%) on top-4 selections.
We are locked in for Week 6 and ready to do everything we can to put readers in a position to beat their friends and colleagues once again. Below, we have our Week 6 pick’em pool strategy and confidence rankings!
NFL Week 6 Pick’em Pool Confidence Rankings
Week 6 Selections
1. San Francisco 49ers
2. Los Angeles Rams
3. Kansas City Chiefs
4. New England Patriots
5. Indianapolis Colts
6. Buffalo Bills
7. Jacksonville Jaguars
8. Atlanta Falcons
9. Baltimore Ravens
10. Tampa Bay Buccaneers
11. New Orleans Saints
12. Denver Broncos
13. Carolina Panthers
14. Dallas Cowboys
NFL Pick’em Pool Strategy: Week 6
49ers (vs. Commanders)
The 49ers lead the league in schedule-adjusted net EPA/play. Washington ranks 27th.
The 49ers are one of three teams to finish each of their games with a positive net success rate, which is even more impressive when considering that they have already faced three teams that made it to the Conference Championship round last season – the Rams, Broncos, and Seahawks.
Brock Purdy is 5 pass attempts from becoming the all-time qualified leader in passer rating and yards per attempt. The 49ers have the better quarterback, more-talented defense, and superior coaching staff in this matchup. Few people would be surprised if this game turned into a blowout.
Rams (vs. Cardinals)
The Rams are below .500 through 5 games, but they are still a top-5 power-rated team heading into Week 6. Meanwhile, the Cardinals rank 24th in DVOA and 27th in schedule-adjusted net EPA/play.
Since returning from Australia, Matthew Stafford and company rank 6th in offensive EPA/play and 7th in offensive success rate. The Rams defense has struggled against Brock Purdy and Josh Allen, but they held the Broncos, Eagles, and Giants below a 40% success rate.
Jacoby Brissett is a far easier matchup for the Rams than Purdy or Allen. If the Rams special teams can stay out of the way, expect the Rams to win this game comfortably.
Chiefs (vs. Chargers)
There have been 24 quarterbacks who have started each of their team’s games this season – Justin Herbert is the only such quarterback who hasn’t finished a single game with a positive EPA/play.
Through 5 weeks, the Chargers rank 29th in DVOA and 29th in schedule-adjusted net EPA/play. Their offensive line is decimated by injuries, and the rest of the team is being held back by some seriously questionable coaching decisions on a weekly basis.
The Chiefs are a flawed team, but they are coming off of their bye week and have finished 3 of their 4 games with a positive net success rate. They have the better quarterback, more-talented defense, and superior coaching staff in this matchup. They should win comfortably.
Patriots (vs. Jets)
Did everyone overreact to New England’s early-season struggles?
Drake Maye and company produced 536 yards of total offense in Week 5 against the Raiders, which is 2nd most by an offense in any game this season. Overall, New England has finished 4 of their 5 games with a positive net success rate, including a dominant +9.3% net success rate on the road against Buffalo.
The Jets have shown promise at times this season, but Sunday’s win over the Browns was the first time in Aaron Glenn’s head coaching career that he beat a team with a winning record. It seems like a tall task to expect him to accomplish that feat in consecutive weeks.
Colts (vs. Titans)
Teams favored by at least a touchdown are 16-7 SU this season.
Daniel Jones has been mediocre – or worse – in 4 of his 5 games this season, but Cam Ward isn’t a matchup advantage for the Titans at that position.
The Titans have the 2nd-worst offense in the league and the 7th-worst defense, measured by schedule-weighted net EPA/play. The Colts are much closer to a league-average team, ranking 19th and 17th, respectively, in those same metrics.
It’s far from a certainty that the Colts cover a large spread on Sunday, but they are rightfully big favorites at home.
2026 Weekly Results
- Week 1: 11-5
- Week 2: 10-6
- Week 3: 8-8
- Week 4: 6-10
- Week 5: 11-3-1
Image Credit: Imagn