NFL Pick'em Pool Week 6 Confidence Rankings, Strategy, & Straight-up Picks
In Week 1, we hit 6 of our top 7 pick’em confidence selections. In Week 2, we managed to finish 8-8 overall despite a number of notable home favorites being upset. In Week 3, we had our worst week ever in this article. However, we rebounded in Week 4 to hit 8 of our top 9 pick’em confidence selections. In Week 5, the 2 “big favorites” of the weekend went down, but we hit 9 of our top-12 selections.
This is my 4th year doing this pick’em and confidence pool article. Our best week ever was Week 3 of the 2021 season in which we went 15-1! That year, we correctly selected 181 of 288 games (62.9% SU). Since the inception of this article, we have correctly selected over 60% of all NFL games, with our top 6 confidence picks cashing at a significantly higher rate.
We ended 2023 on a high note, with our top 6 confidence picks going 11-1 in Week 17 and Week 18. We are locked in and ready to do everything we can in 2024 to put readers in a position to beat their friends and colleagues once again.
Below, we have our Week 6 pick’em pool strategy and confidence rankings!
2024 NFL Pick’em
Each week in this article, I will rank each of my selections in order of confidence and provide reasoning on all of my top picks.
As a disclaimer, these picks lock on Thursday afternoon for the purposes of this article, which is, of course, prior to getting final injury reports for the week. If looking for any last-minute thoughts or wishful changes to these selections, make sure to join the RotoGrinders Discord and follow @CommishFilmRoom on Twitter.
NFL Week 6 Pick’em Pool Confidence Rankings
Week 6 Selections
1. Philadelphia Eagles
2. Atlanta Falcons
3. Baltimore Ravens
4. Houston Texans
5. San Francisco 49ers
6. Green Bay Packers
7. Chicago Bears
8. Tampa Bay Buccaneers
9. Tennessee Titans
10. Pittsburgh Steelers
11. Denver Broncos
12. Detroit Lions
13. Cincinnati Bengals
14. Buffalo Bills
NFL Pick’em Pool Strategy Week 6
Eagles (vs. Browns)
The Cleveland Browns are rapidly descending into conversations about the worst teams in the NFL. Injuries have played a major role in their early season struggles, but so has their highly-paid starting quarterback, Deshaun Watson. Through 5 weeks, Watson is responsible for 2 of the 5 worst individual games this season by a quarterback, measured by EPA/play. He is the only starting quarterback not to have a single game with better than a 43% success rate in 2024.
The Philadelphia Eagles have been underwhelming to begin 2024, but it’s worth noting that they have been decimated by injuries as well. In Week 4, they were missing their top-3 wide receivers in addition to missing their star RT Lane Johnson. AJ Brown, DeVonta Smith, and Lane Johnson were all back on the practice field on Wednesday and should be good to go this weekend. This is a prime “get right” spot for Philadelphia, facing a Cleveland team that still hasn’t scored 20 points in a game yet this fall.
Falcons (vs. Panthers)
Are the Carolina Panthers trying to win games? The answer is obviously yes, but the surface-level numbers are ugly. Part of the issue for Carolina has been the injury bug, claiming star DT Derrick Brown and their top linebackers, Josey Jewell and Shaq Thompson. Starting S Jordan Fuller and WR2 Adam Thielen are both on injured reserve as well. Simply, it’s difficult to be competitive on a weekly basis when a team is missing their most important defensive pieces. The Atlanta Falcons are far from an elite football team, but a clean game in which they minimize mistakes should be good enough to come away with a win.
Ravens (vs. Commanders)
Jayden Daniels probably deserves to be the league MVP if the season ended today, but unfortunately for Washington fans, he will have to play some real competition before the voters cast their ballots. Daniels has been sensational to begin 2024, but he’s also had one of the easiest schedules in the NFL through 5 weeks, facing the Buccaneers, Giants, Bengals, Cardinals, and Browns. All of those teams rank in the bottom half of the league in defensive DVOA so far this year.
Lamar Jackson and company were lucky to come away with a win against the Bengals in Week 5, but they were also a little bit unlucky during the first month of the season. The Ravens are a top-tier offense and are as good defensively as any team that has faced the Commanders so far this season. Baltimore should be able to defend their home turf on Sunday.
Texans (vs. Patriots)
Drake Maye offers some upside for the New England Patriots, but the reality is that he’s still playing behind a porous offensive line with a questionable coaching staff guiding his development. New England’s offensive line ranks 30th in adjusted sack rate in 2024, which is something that a new quarterback isn’t going to fix, especially a rookie quarterback. The Houston Texans will be without WR1 Nico Collins and potentially a couple of other key pieces in this matchup, but the Patriots are still going to have a difficult time winning this contest. New England’s defense has been among the worst in the entire NFL since losing star LB Ja’Whaun Bentley. Houston might not cover the spread this weekend, but they should be able to find a way to come out of Foxborough with a win.
49ers (vs. Seahawks)
Some pundits in the national media are talking about the San Francisco 49ers as if the sky is falling, but those comments are likely a dramatic overreaction. San Francisco has only 2 wins so far in 2024, but they have outgained their opponents in 4 of their 5 matchups to date, suggesting that they have been very competitive in all of their contests. In Week 5, San Francisco lost their kicker mid-game to an injury, which significantly hurt their chances of putting the finishing touches on a home win. Entering play in Week 6, the 49ers have the 2nd-most offensive yards in the NFL but rank only 29th in red zone touchdown%, per The Athletic. Any amount of positive regression in that regard is likely to have the 49ers looking like a Super Bowl favorite once again. They have a good chance to get back in the win column on Thursday against a Seattle team that will be without multiple key defenders.
2024 Weekly Results
- Week 1: 7-9
- Week 2: 8-8
- Week 3: 6-10
- Week 4: 11-5
- Week 5: 9-5
Image Credit: Getty Images