NFL Pick'em Pool Week 6 Confidence Rankings, Strategy, & Straight-Up Picks
Each week in this article, Nick Galaida will rank each of his selections in order of confidence and also provide reasoning on all of his top picks. As a disclaimer, these picks lock on Thursday afternoon for the purposes of this article, which is, of course, prior to getting final injury reports for the week. If looking for any last-minute thoughts or wishful changes to these selections, make sure to join the RotoGrinders Discord and follow @CommishFilmRoom on Twitter.
Week 6 of the NFL regular season begins this evening, with Jalen Hurts and the Eagles visiting rookie Jaxson Dart and the Giants at MetLife Stadium. Philadelphia is one of five teams favored by 7+ points, so it could be a good bounce-back performance for favorites after last weekend’s carnage around the league – seeing the Rams (-8.5), Bills (-8), and Cardinals (-7.5) all lose.
In Week 1, we hit each of our top 4 confidence selections in this article to open the season and probably deserved to be 6-0, but the Falcons blew a late lead at home against the Buccaneers. In Week 2, we delivered on each of our top 8 confidence selections! The Packers blew a 92% win probability in the 4th quarter against the Browns to kill our perfect top-3 record in Week 3. In Week 4, we bounced back with another perfect 5-for-5 at the top of our confidence list. In Week 5, three of the five teams favored by 7+ points were upset, which will lead to losses on any confidence pool list.
This is my 5th year doing this pick’em and confidence pool article. Our best week ever was Week 3 of the 2021 season in which we went 15-1! That year, we correctly selected 181 of 271 regular season games (66.8% SU), excluding the Week 10 tie between the Steelers and Lions.
Since the inception of this article, we have correctly selected 64% of all NFL games, with our top 6 confidence picks cashing at a significantly higher rate. Only 10 times in 77 weeks have we finished with a losing record in this article.
We are locked in for Week 6 and ready to do everything we can to put readers in a position to beat their friends and colleagues once again. Below, we have our Week 6 pick’em pool strategy and confidence rankings!
NFL Week 6 Pick’em Pool Confidence Rankings
Week 6 Selections
1. Green Bay Packers
2. Los Angeles Rams
3. Denver Broncos
4. Philadelphia Eagles
5. Pittsburgh Steelers
6. Indianapolis Colts
7. Washington Commanders
8. Buffalo Bills
9. New England Patriots
10. Dallas Cowboys
11. Kansas City Chiefs
12. Las Vegas Raiders
13. Jacksonville Jaguars
14. San Francisco 49ers
15. Miami Dolphins
NFL Pick’em Pool Strategy: Week 6
Packers (vs. Bengals)
Earlier this week, Cincinnati traded for QB Joe Flacco, hoping to upgrade from Jake Browning, who has looked overmatched in each of his 3 starts since Joe Burrow hit injured reserve. Funny enough, Flacco’s lone win as the starter for the Browns this season happened to come in Week 3 against the Packers, who he is in line to face this upcoming weekend.
Still, it’s doubtful that Flacco meaningfully elevates this Cincinnati offense in any capacity. In 4 starts this season, Flacco had a 33.3% success rate or worse in 3 of the games. Browning was far from great, but he didn’t have a single game with a success rate below 35.3%.
There is also the fact that Cincinnati’s offensive line is certifiably worse than Cleveland’s. Through 5 weeks, only the Vikings have allowed a higher rate of pressure on the offensive line. Putting a non-mobile, 40-year-old signal caller behind one of the league’s worst pass blocking units doesn’t appear to be a winning formula.
Green Bay showed some vulnerabilities prior to their bye week, losing outright in Cleveland in Week 3 and then backing their way into a tie against Dallas in Week 4. Still, they had a +6.8% Net Success Rate against the Browns and were +1.0% against the Cowboys – far from disaster performances. Cincinnati has posted 4 consecutive games with a -5.8% Net Success Rate or worse, which includes Week 2, when Burrow was still on the field. The 3 games started by Browning were all -6.5% or worse for the Bengals. This would be a herculean upset if Flacco managed to pull this off.
Rams (at Ravens)
The Rams being ranked this high is a reaction to the Ravens injury report. In Week 5, Baltimore was missing QB Lamar Jackson, LT Ronnie Stanley, DT Nnamdi Madubuike, DT Broderick Washington, LB Roquan Smith, CB Chidobe Awuzie, CB Marlon Humphrey, S Kyle Hamilton, and S Ar’Darius Washington. The result was a 44-10 loss at home to the struggling Texans. Baltimore had a -20.8% Net Success Rate in that matchup, which was the most lopsided defeat of the season to date.
Meanwhile, the Rams have posted a +4.9% Net Success Rate or better in every game they have played this season. They are only 3-2 SU, but their first loss happened because they had a potential game-winning field goal blocked as time expired. Their second loss was a result of two fumbles, a missed field goal, and a blocked extra point. Simply, those types of events don’t tend to keep happening throughout the course of a 17-game season.
On Thursday, Baltimore had Stanley, Humphrey, and Hamilton back at practice in a limited capacity. However, it remains to be seen if they push the envelope with any of their key contributors this weekend given that they aren’t likely to have Jackson under center. The Ravens also have a bye in Week 7, so the organizational emphasis could turn to getting all of their key pieces back after that mini break.
Assuming there are no late-week surprises on the injury report, the Rams should be well-positioned to win this game – perhaps comfortably.
Broncos (at Jets)
At some point, we might simply have to admit that the Jets are not a good football team. Through 5 games, they have been dominated at the line of scrimmage, ranking 27th in offensive pressure% allowed and 28th in defensive pressure% generated.
The Broncos didn’t play well in Week 3 against the Chargers, but they have been otherwise pretty impressive early in the season. In their other 4 games, they have had a positive Net Success Rate in all of them, including 3 games with a +7.9% Net Success Rate or better.
Defensively, the Broncos have been able to put pressure on opposing quarterbacks each week, never having lower than a 31.1% pressure rate in any individual game. Overall this season, QB Justin Fields ranks 19th in yards per attempt and 27th in turnover-worthy play rate.
Winning on the road is never easy in the NFL, but this is Denver’s game to lose.
Eagles (at Giants)
Frankly, there isn’t a whole lot to like about the Eagles right now. They have been outgained in each of their 5 games and haven’t posted better than a 4.1% Net Success rate in any of those games. This team has undeniably outperformed their advanced numbers to date and are lucky to be 4-1 SU heading into the middle portion of their schedule.
However, the Giants somehow look significantly worse. In Week 5, they lost by double digits to the Saints, giving QB Spencer Rattler his 1st career win after 10 consecutive losses. Even more alarming, the Giants had a league-low 6.5% defensive pressure rate in that game, and that was a strength of their roster during the first month of action.
If the Giants can’t get pressure on QB Jalen Hurts, they are going to be hard-pressed to find a pathway to an upset. This season, Hurts has only 1 turnover-worthy throw from a clean pocket (on 103 such dropbacks).
The Eagles likely don’t need to play an A+ game to come away with a win here. Taking care of the football and dominating the time of possession should be enough to get the job done.
Steelers (vs. Browns)
This isn’t a slam-dunk spot for the Steelers, but it’s just about as close as favorable of a travel advantage as there will ever exist in NFL history. In Week 5, Pittsburgh had their bye. Meanwhile, Cleveland traveled to London to play Minnesota and then had to travel directly back to the United States to play another road game against a rested opponent.
Oh, and rookie QB Dillon Gabriel will be making only his 2nd career start in this spot.
The Steelers have certainly overperformed their advanced metrics early in the season, managing a 3-1 SU record despite being outgained by 59+ yards in each of those 4 games. Still, this is a competitive roster – led by a competent quarterback. The Steelers have also managed a 32% defensive pressure rate or better in 3 of their 4 games, which should cause some issues for Gabriel.
If Cleveland wasn’t coming back from overseas for this game, the spread would likely be closer to a field goal. However, this is arguably the most significant travel advantage of the season. Pittsburgh should be able to win this game if they take care of the football.
2025 Weekly Results
- Week 1: 9-7
- Week 2: 11-5
- Week 3: 6-10
- Week 4: 11-4-1
- Week 5: 6-8
Image Credit: Imagn