NFL Pick'em Pool Week 7 Confidence Rankings, Strategy, & Straight-up Picks
In Week 1, we hit 6 of our top 7 pick’em confidence selections. In Week 2, we managed to finish 8-8 overall despite a number of notable home favorites being upset. In Week 3, we had our worst week ever in this article, with the NFL experiencing its second consecutive Black Sunday. However, we rebounded in Week 4 to hit 8 of our top 9 pick’em confidence selections. In Week 5, the 2 “big favorites” of the weekend went down, but we hit 9 of our top-12 selections. Last weekend, we kept the good times rolling, hitting 12 of 14 selections overall, including each of our top 8 confidence picks.
This is my 4th year doing this pick’em and confidence pool article. Our best week ever was Week 3 of the 2021 season, in which we went 15-1! That year, we correctly selected 181 of 288 games (62.9% SU). Since the inception of this article, we have correctly selected over 60% of all NFL games, with our top 6 confidence picks cashing at a significantly higher rate.
We ended 2023 on a high note, with our top 6 confidence picks going 11-1 in Week 17 and Week 18. We are locked in and ready to do everything we can in 2024 to put readers in a position to beat their friends and colleagues once again.
Below, we have our Week 7 pick’em pool strategy and confidence rankings!
2024 NFL Pick’em
Each week in this article, I will rank each of my selections in order of confidence and provide reasoning for all of my top picks.
As a disclaimer, these picks lock on Thursday afternoon for the purposes of this article, which is, of course, prior to getting final injury reports for the week. If looking for any last-minute thoughts or wishful changes to these selections, make sure to join the RotoGrinders Discord and follow @CommishFilmRoom on Twitter.
NFL Week 7 Pick’em Pool Confidence Rankings
Week 7 Selections
1. Buffalo Bills
2. Washington Commanders
3. San Francisco 49ers
4. Cincinnati Bengals
5. Denver Broncos
6. Jacksonville Jaguars
7. Green Bay Packers
8. Los Angeles Chargers
9. Pittsburgh Steelers
10. Baltimore Ravens
11. Los Angeles Rams
12. Indianapolis Colts
13. Seattle Seahawks
14. Philadelphia Eagles
15. Detroit Lions
NFL Pick’em Pool Strategy Week 7
Bills (vs. Titans)
Did we all watch Will Levis last weekend against the Colts? If you watched that game, you can probably skip further down the article here unless you are an advanced stat nerd who wants to dive into the ugliness. Levis finished Week 6 ranked 26th out of 28 starting quarterbacks in EPA/play and 28th in success rate. He completed only 16-of-27 pass attempts for 95 yards against an Indianapolis defense that posted the 4th-worst EPA/play in the entire NFL the week prior. Meanwhile, Josh Allen looked every bit like an MVP candidate on Monday Night Football and is supported by one of the best offensive lines in football. This game shouldn’t be close.
Commanders (vs. Panthers)
At this point, every team facing the Panthers has a pretty good chance to come away with a win. In Week 6, Carolina was missing a pair of starting offensive linemen and five starters on the defensive side of the ball, including their No. 1 and No. 2 tacklers. Jayden Daniels is the only quarterback in the NFL this season to have a positive EPA/play in each of his team’s first 6 games. The Commanders defense isn’t great, but they have the better quarterback and are far healthier than their opponent in this spot. Daniels and company should find a way to win here.
49ers (vs. Chiefs)
Patrick Mahomes and the Chiefs are one of the league’s two remaining undefeated teams, but that is likely to change this weekend. Kansas City has been one of the most fortunate teams in the league this fall, winning in Week 1 by a literal big toe, in Week 2 thanks to a defensive pass interference call on 4th & desperation in the closing seconds, and in Week 3 thanks to a non-call in the end zone that would have put Atlanta ahead in the final minutes. In Week 4, they barely beat an extremely hobbled Chargers team. In Week 5, they took care of business against a New Orleans team that everyone is taking care of business against right now. On the other side of this matchup, Brock Purdy and the 49ers are finally getting healthy and are starting to look like legitimate Super Bowl contenders. San Francisco is favored for a reason in this matchup.
Bengals (vs. Browns)
Deshaun Watson played his best game of the season in Week 6…and it resulted in 16 points for the Browns. Actually, Watson only led the offense to 9 points, with the other 7 points coming via a blocked field goal that was returned for a touchdown. Watson’s best performance of the year was only good enough for him to finish 20th in EPA/play and 26th in success rate among 28 starting quarterbacks. Cincinnati’s defense is coming off of their best game of 2024 and is finally getting all of their key pieces back on the field. Cleveland’s offense still hasn’t scored 20 points this season. Until that changes, it’s difficult to see this team winning any games against quality opponents.
Broncos (vs. Saints)
Bo Nix hasn’t been great to begin his rookie campaign, but he’s done a pretty good job taking care of the football in recent weeks, which has helped Denver manage a 3-3 record through 6 games. On Thursday, New Orleans will be starting Spencer Rattler, who took 5 sacks and threw 2 interceptions in his NFL debut last weekend. Facing an aggressive Denver defense that has excelled at getting pressure on the quarterback, it wouldn’t be surprising to see Rattler struggle once again – especially considering that he will be missing three starting offensive linemen and his top two wideouts. The Broncos are well-positioned to get above the .500 mark in a favorable matchup, facing an injury-plagued team playing their 3rd game in 11 days.
2024 Weekly Results
- Week 1: 7-9
- Week 2: 8-8
- Week 3: 6-10
- Week 4: 11-5
- Week 5: 9-5
- Week 6: 12-2
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