NFL Pick'em Pool Week 8 Confidence Rankings, Strategy, & Straight-Up Picks
Each week in this article, Nick Galaida will rank each of his selections in order of confidence and also provide reasoning on all of his top picks. As a disclaimer, these picks lock on Thursday afternoon for the purposes of this article, which is, of course, prior to getting final injury reports for the week. If looking for any last-minute thoughts or wishful changes to these selections, make sure to join the RotoGrinders Discord and follow @CommishFilmRoom on Twitter.
Week 8 of the NFL regular season begins this evening with Carson Wentz and the Vikings visiting Justin Herbert and the Chargers on Thursday Night Football. Ahead of kickoff, the Chargers are 3-point favorites on the spread – they are 1 of 10 home teams to be favored this weekend.
On the surface, it’s looking like it could be another great week for public chalk parlays and teasers. Either that, or there is some tremendous value to be had on some unlikely road underdogs.
In Week 1, we hit each of our top-4 confidence selections in this article to open the season and probably deserved to be 6-0, but the Falcons blew a late lead at home against the Buccaneers. In Week 2, we delivered on each of our top-8 confidence selections! The Packers blew a 92% win probability in the 4th quarter against the Browns to kill our perfect top-3 record in Week 3. In Week 4, we bounced back with another perfect 5-for-5 at the top of our confidence list. In Week 5, three of the five teams favored by 7+ points were upset, which will lead to losses on any confidence pool list. In Week 6, the Eagles surprisingly ruled out DT Jalen Carter 90 minutes prior to kickoff, and then CB Quinyon Mitchell exited with an injury, playing only 13 snaps, leading to a Philadelphia loss. Our other 5 picks in the top 6 of our confidence rankings all came through!
Week 7 was a good bounce-back week, with 8 of our top 9 confidence selections coming through!
This is my 5th year doing this pick’em and confidence pool article. Our best week ever was Week 3 of the 2021 season, in which we went 15-1! That year, we correctly selected 181 of 271 regular season games (66.8% SU), excluding the Week 10 tie between the Steelers and Lions.
Since the inception of this article, we have correctly selected 64% of all NFL games, with our top 6 confidence picks cashing at a significantly higher rate. Only 10 times in 79 weeks have we finished with a losing record in this weekly article.
We are locked in for Week 8 and ready to do everything we can to put readers in a position to beat their friends and colleagues once again.
Below, we have our Week 8 pick’em pool strategy and confidence rankings!
NFL Week 8 Pick’em Pool Confidence Rankings
Week 8 Selections
1. Kansas City Chiefs
2. Indianapolis Colts
3. New England Patriots
4. Buffalo Bills
5. Baltimore Ravens
6. Philadelphia Eagles
7. Atlanta Falcons
8. Cincinnati Bengals
9. Tampa Bay Buccaneers
10. Denver Broncos
11. San Francisco 49ers
12. Pittsburgh Steelers
13. Minnesota Vikings
NFL Pick’em Pool Strategy: Week 8
Chiefs (vs. Commanders)
There has not been a more dominant victory in 2025 than what we saw between the Raiders and Chiefs. Kansas City had a (+0.873 EPA/play) advantage over Las Vegas — the biggest margin in a single game to date this fall. The Chiefs also finished that game with a +38.3% net success rate (NSR). Not only was that the most lopsided matchup of the year to date — it nearly doubled the previous most dominant win, which came in Week 5 when the Texans beat a Ravens team that was missing nearly 10 starters due to injury.
Meanwhile, the Commanders appear to be at risk of entering a full tailspin. Washington has already ruled out Jayden Daniels for Monday Night Football due to a hamstring strain. In Week 7, Washington allowed Dak Prescott to have one of his most productive games of the season to date.
Kansas City is a juggernaut at home, even against good teams. Facing a backup quarterback and a struggling defense – this one could get ugly.
Colts (vs. Titans)
Through 7 weeks, the Titans are singlehandedly responsible for 4 of the 12 most lopsided games of the season, by EPA/play. Given that teams are 95-12-1 SU (88.8%) when generating more EPA/play than their opponent this season, it’s not difficult to see why the Titans are significant underdogs in Week 8 against the Colts.
Despite the Colts being the largest favorites of Week 8, they get a slight demotion to No. 2 in these rankings simply because they still have Daniel Jones at quarterback, and their defense still hasn’t faced any real challenge.
This season, Indianapolis has faced Bo Nix, Jacoby Brissett, Geno Smith, Cam Ward, Tua Tagovailoa, and Justin Herbert in 6 of their 7 games. All of those quarterbacks rank 17th or worse in EPA/play this season (min. 50+ plays). Their toughest test this fall was Matthew Stafford, who only ranks 12th in EPA/play.
Of course, Ward isn’t an elite quarterback, but the overall point is that Indianapolis still hasn’t proven that they are a lockdown defense. If they have a week in which their offense struggles with turnovers or can’t generate their usual level of success through the air, their defense might not be able to give them an alternative pathway to victory.
Patriots (vs. Browns)
The Browns scored 31 points in Week 7 against the Dolphins but actually only had 206 yards of total offense and 15 first downs. They averaged a pedestrian 3.9 yards per play. That is to say, Cleveland had touchdown drives of only 46 yards and 2 yards. They also had an interception return for a touchdown. If not for a Miami fumble and Tua Tagovailoa throwing 3 interceptions, it’s difficult to see how the Browns would have managed more than 20 points – even against a bad Dolphins defense.
To be fair – Cleveland’s offense did deploy a rather conservative approach this past weekend, with significant winds being part of the equation. They also didn’t need to take many shots downfield or push the envelope in any way after taking a sizable early lead.
Still, there is a massive difference between beating the 1-6 SU Dolphins and having to figure out how to stop the surging Patriots. Drake Maye is 1 of only 5 quarterbacks in the NFL this season to have a positive EPA/play in each of his team’s games. Meanwhile, Gabriel’s only positive EPA/play game came against the lowly Dolphins.
New England hasn’t yet proved that they are a contender, but their quarterback has shown enough to prove that they are, at a minimum, going to be competitive on a weekly basis. In this particular matchup, the difference in quarterback talent is significant enough to warrant the Patriots being such large favorites.
Bills (vs. Panthers)
The last time we saw the Bills play, it didn’t look great. They lost by double digits on the road against the Falcons after being favored by 4.5 points prior to kickoff. Still, we have to resist the notion that the sky is falling for Josh Allen and company after consecutive losses heading into their bye.
Through 6 games, Buffalo has posted a positive net success rate 5 times. Carolina has won 4 of their last 5 games, but 3 of those wins came by 1 score, and 2 of those victories came against the Dolphins and Jets – teams with a combined 1-13 SU record this fall. Their other win came against the Cowboys – a team that doesn’t have a victory against an opponent with a winning record yet this year.
Even if this game ends up being reasonably competitive, it’s difficult to make a strong case for the Panthers to pull an outright upset. Buffalo has, by far, the better quarterback. That counts for a lot in the NFL, especially when the underdog doesn’t have an advantage anywhere else in this matchup.
Ravens (vs. Bears)
Chicago has won each of their last 4 games, but they haven’t looked particularly dominant during that streak. In fact, they still haven’t had a single game this year in which they finished with better than a +4.7% net success rate. Only 2 times in 6 games have they even finished with a positive NSR – notable, given that teams are only 23-84-1 SU (21.5%) when finishing with a negative NSR this season.
It may feel difficult to trust the 1-5 SU Ravens in this spot, considering that they didn’t look overly impressive, even with QB Lamar Jackson healthy earlier in the year. However, the strength of the schedule has to be taken into account – the Ravens opened up the year against Buffalo, Cleveland, Detroit, and Kansas City.
It’s also worth noting that Baltimore isn’t simply getting Jackson back for this contest. They also project to be healthier on defense after dealing with injuries to LB Kyle Van Noy, LB Roquan Smith, CB Marlon Humphrey, CB Chidobe Awuzie, and S Kyle Hamilton prior to their bye.
It wouldn’t be surprising to see the Ravens win this game comfortably.
2025 Weekly Results
- Week 1: 9-7
- Week 2: 11-5
- Week 3: 6-10
- Week 4: 11-4-1
- Week 5: 6-8
- Week 6: 8-7
- Week 7: 10-5
Image Credit: Imagn