NFL Pick'em Pool Week 9 Confidence Rankings, Strategy, & Straight-Up Picks
Each week in this article, Nick Galaida will rank each of his selections in order of confidence and also provide reasoning on all of his top picks. As a disclaimer, these picks lock before the first game of the week for the purposes of this article, which is, of course, prior to getting final injury reports for the week. If looking for any last-minute thoughts or wishful changes to these selections, make sure to join the RotoGrinders Discord and follow @CommishFilmRoom on Twitter.
For the first time since 1971, at least one NFL underdog of 7+ points has won outright in each of the first 8 weeks of the season, per Ben Fawkes.
In Week 9, there are five teams favored by at least 7 points: Jaguars, Chiefs, 49ers, Seahawks, and Lions. A 5-team moneyline parlay on this weekend’s biggest favorites is priced at +162 for anyone who thinks the chalk finally strikes back after a rough start to the season.
This is my 6th year doing this pick’em and confidence pool article. Since 2021, we have correctly predicted the winner of 64% of all NFL regular season contests. In 2025, this article went 17-1 on its top prediction of the week and 57-14 (80.3%) on top-4 selections.
We are locked in for Week 9 and ready to do everything we can to put readers in a position to beat their friends and colleagues once again. Below, we have our Week 9 pick’em pool strategy and confidence rankings!
NFL Week 9 Pick’em Pool Confidence Rankings
Week 9 Selections
1. Jacksonville Jaguars
2. San Francisco 49ers
3. Kansas City Chiefs
4. Seattle Seahawks
5. Chicago Bears
6. Detroit Lions
7. Atlanta Falcons
8. Dallas Cowboys
9. Houston Texans
10. Buffalo Bills
11. New Orleans Saints
12. New York Giants
13. Los Angeles Rams
14. Carolina Panthers
15. Green Bay Packers
NFL Pick’em Pool Strategy: Week 9
Jaguars (at Ravens)
Thursday Night Football favorites are only 3-5 SU this season, but it’s difficult to make a case for the injury-plagued Ravens as an underdog in this spot.
Joe Fagnano had a -0.532 EPA/play and 29.6% success rate against the Bills in Week 8. It was the 7th-worst game this season by EPA/play and the 11th-worst game by success rate among quarterbacks this season.
The loss of star DT DaVon Hamilton is going to hurt Jacksonville’s run defense, but that is likely to be a bigger deal against teams that can effectively move the ball through the air. Jacksonville should be able to stack the box and force Fagnano to beat them in man coverage in the secondary.
The Ravens thought so little of Fagnano that they immediately traded for veteran Jacoby Brissett. This game could be over by the half if Jacksonville takes care of the football.
49ers (vs. Raiders)
The Raiders defense has allowed 30+ points in each of their last 5 games – not exactly an inspiring trend heading into a road matchup against one of the league’s best offenses.
Brock Purdy ranks 2nd in my schedule-adjusted quarterback rankings. He’s outperformed matchup expectations in 6 of 7 starts, with the lone exception being a road matchup against the Seahawks.
The Raiders have performed well offensively of late, which has helped them stay competitive in shootouts against other bad defenses like the Jets and Bills. Bad defense doesn’t travel well though, and even the absence of Mike Evans isn’t going to be enough for Kirk Cousins to lead the Raiders to an upset.
Chiefs (vs. Jets)
The Chiefs lost to the Broncos in Week 8, but it was an improbable loss if only looking at the process metrics of that game. The Chiefs finished with a positive EPA/play, finished with a positive net success rate, and had 105 more total yards than the Broncos.
Patrick Mahomes and company led 24-13 heading into the 4th quarter, at which point they had a 92.3% win probability. The Chiefs still led 24-21 late in the 4th quarter, but they missed a field goal, surrendered a 2-play, 56-yard touchdown drive, and then stalled out on the Denver 1-yard line in the closing seconds.
Simply, everything that could have gone wrong late in that game did go wrong for the Chiefs. Expect them to get back in the win column this weekend at home, hosting the Jets.
Seahawks (vs. Cardinals)
The Cardinals have 3 wins this season, but they aren’t what most people would refer to as repeatable formulas for success.
They defeated the still-winless Chargers in Week 1 – an outcome that looks less impressive by the day. In Week 6, the Cardinals narrowly edged out a win against an injury-plagued Rams team that had 3 turnovers (including turnover on downs) on four 2nd-half possessions. Last week, the Cardinals had a 1.6% win probability with 2:43 remaining in the 4th quarter before a comedy of Dallas errors led to the game going to overtime.
Drew Lock has an injury to his throwing elbow, which is worth monitoring, but if he’s healthy and ready to go, Seattle is a clear and obvious favorite here.
Bears (vs. Buccaneers)
Tampa Bay is one of the most underrated teams in the NFL. They rank 5th in DVOA and are my 2nd-ranked pass defense after adjusting for strength of quarterbacks faced.
That said, they don’t have a quarterback capable of delivering an outright road upset this weekend. Baker Mayfield is 7-of-14 for 64 passing yards in 2 games since returning from injury. He didn’t complete a single pass in Week 8 against the Falcons, marking the first time since 1974 that an NFL team didn’t complete a pass in a game.
Caleb Williams is playing at an MVP level right now. He leads my schedule-adjusted quarterback rankings and is the only signal-caller this season to post a positive EPA/play against the Vikings.
Tampa Bay’s pass defense might be good enough to keep this game close, but the better quarterback usually takes care of business at home in these spots.
2026 Weekly Results
- Week 1: 11-5
- Week 2: 10-6
- Week 3: 8-8
- Week 4: 6-10
- Week 5: 11-3-1
- Week 6: 7-7
- Week 7: 8-6
- Week 8: 10-4
Image Credit: Imagn