NFL Pick'em Pool Week 9 Confidence Rankings, Strategy, & Straight-Up Picks
Each week in this article, Nick Galaida will rank each of his selections in order of confidence and also provide reasoning on all of his top picks. As a disclaimer, these picks lock on Thursday afternoon for the purposes of this article, which is, of course, prior to getting final injury reports for the week. If looking for any last-minute thoughts or wishful changes to these selections, make sure to join the RotoGrinders Discord and follow @CommishFilmRoom on Twitter.
In case anyone hasn’t told you yet, there are no longer upsets in the NFL – I kid.
But really – it’s been a historically impressive run for favorites in recent weeks, and that continued in Week 8, with only 2 of 13 underdogs even managing to cover the spread. If you have been blindly picking every favorite, there is a decent chance that you are near the top of your pick’em leaderboard.
However, this lack of upsets is unlikely to continue indefinitely. Considering that there are 8 road favorites in Week 9, it wouldn’t be surprising to see some regression hit as soon as this weekend.
In Week 1, we hit each of our top 4 confidence selections in this article to open the season and probably deserved to be 6-0, but the Falcons blew a late lead at home against the Buccaneers. In Week 2, we delivered on each of our top-8 confidence selections! The Packers blew a 92% win probability in the 4th quarter against the Browns to kill our perfect top-3 record in Week 3. In Week 4, we bounced back with another perfect 5-for-5 at the top of our confidence list. In Week 5, 3 of the 5 teams favored by 7+ points were upset, which will lead to losses on any confidence pool list. In Week 6, the Eagles surprisingly ruled out DT Jalen Carter 90 minutes prior to kickoff, and then CB Quinyon Mitchell exited with an injury, playing only 13 snaps, leading to a Philadelphia loss. Our other 5 picks in the top 6 of our confidence rankings all came through!
Week 7 was a good bounce-back week, with 8 of our top 9 confidence selections coming through! In Week 8, we hit each of our top-6 selections and 8 of our top 10 confidence picks overall.
This is my 5th year doing this pick’em and confidence pool article. Our best week ever was Week 3 of the 2021 season, in which we went 15-1! That year, we correctly selected 181 of 271 regular season games (66.8% SU), excluding the Week 10 tie between the Steelers and Lions.
Since the inception of this article, we have correctly selected 64% of all NFL games, with our top 6 confidence picks cashing at a significantly higher rate. Only 10 times in 80 weeks have we finished with a losing record in this weekly article.
We are locked in for Week 9 and ready to do everything we can to put readers in a position to beat their friends and colleagues once again.
Below, we have our Week 9 pick’em pool strategy and confidence rankings!
NFL Week 9 Pick’em Pool Confidence Rankings
Week 9 Selections
1. Los Angeles Rams
2. Green Bay Packers
3. Detroit Lions
4. Baltimore Ravens
5. New England Patriots
6. Los Angeles Chargers
7. Kansas City Chiefs
8. Seattle Seahawks
9. Chicago Bears
10. Arizona Cardinals
11. Houston Texans
12. Las Vegas Raiders
13. New York Giants
14. Pittsburgh Steelers
NFL Pick’em Pool Strategy: Week 9
Rams (vs. Saints)
Matthew Stafford and company are in the most favorable scheduling position of any team in the NFL in Week 9. The Rams are fresh off of a bye and will be at home this weekend, hosting a Saints team that will be handing the keys to their offense to rookie QB Tyler Shough, who will be making his first career start.
Shough appeared briefly in Week 8 against the Buccaneers, completing 17 of his 30 pass attempts for 128 yards. He didn’t throw a touchdown but did have an interception and was sacked twice. He finished the game with a rather uninspiring 40% success rate and -0.409 EPA/play – not exactly surprising numbers, given his reported struggles throughout training camp and the preseason.
On the other side of this matchup, the Rams have finished every single game they’ve played this season with a +4.9% net success rate or better. Their only two losses this fall have both come via unusual circumstances – having a game-winning field goal blocked against the Eagles in Week 3, then fumbling away a likely go-ahead touchdown on the goal line in Week 5 against the 49ers.
The Rams are the better team in all phases of the game in this matchup. They are the biggest favorites on the board this weekend for good reason.
Packers (vs. Panthers)
Jordan Love isn’t viewed by many pundits as an elite quarterback, but it’s difficult to understand why. Through 8 weeks this season, Love is 1 of 4 signal callers to have a positive EPA/play in every game he’s played. Overall, he ranks 1st in EPA/play and 3rd in success rate among qualified quarterbacks.
Defensively, Green Bay has regressed since the early part of the year, but this could be a nice “get-right” spot for them, facing an injury-depleted Carolina offensive line. They will also have a favorable matchup against (likely) Bryce Young, who ranks 28th in EPA/play and 20th in success rate this season.
The Packers have their flaws, but they have the better quarterback and should be healthier than the Panthers in this matchup. It would be more than a little bit surprising to see an upset in this spot.
Lions (vs. Vikings)
In Week 9, the Lions are priced as 8.5-point favorites over the Vikings. According to Ben Fawkes, Minnesota hasn’t won a game as this big of an underdog since 2010, when they were 14-point underdogs against the Eagles. Looking at things from purely a football lens ahead of this weekend, there doesn’t appear to be much hope for Minnesota to put an end to that streak on Sunday.
Following a season-ending shoulder surgery, Carson Wentz has been placed on injured reserve. That means that the Vikings will be handing the reins back over to J.J. McCarthy, who hasn’t played since Week 2. In 2 games played this season, McCarthy has yet to post a positive EPA/play. His Week 2 showing against the Falcons represented the 4th-worst game, by EPA/play, for a starting quarterback in the NFL this season. His job isn’t likely to get easier, going on the road to face a division rival.
Detroit is fresh off of their bye and should be healthier on the defensive side of the ball than the last time we saw them in Week 7 against Tampa Bay. It’s difficult to see a path to an upset here.
Ravens (vs. Dolphins)
Are the Dolphins back? Short answer – no. Long answer – still, no.
In Week 8, Miami comfortably defeated Atlanta on the road, earning their 2nd win of the season. It was the first time this fall that the Dolphins finished with a positive Net Success Rate in an individual game. It also happened to come on a day that the Falcons were missing their starting quarterback, No. 1 wide receiver, starting slot cornerback, and one of their top pass rushers.
On Thursday, Miami gets to return home, but they will be welcoming a rested Lamar Jackson to town. Baltimore is averaging 32.8 points per game with Jackson active this season. The Dolphins defense ranks 27th in EPA/play and 25th in success rate through 8 weeks.
It may be difficult to trust a road favorite that is 2-5 SU, but the Ravens are expected to win this game for valid reasons. Their defense still leaves a lot to be desired, but there is little doubt that they are the more talented football team in this matchup. Assuming Jackson isn’t too rusty, this should be a game that Baltimore wins.
Patriots (vs. Falcons)
There are valid arguments to be made that Drake Maye is a legitimate MVP candidate. Through 8 weeks, he’s 1 of 4 quarterbacks to have a positive EPA/play in each of his team’s games. Overall, he ranks 3rd in EPA/play and 5th in success rate among qualified signal callers.
Since losing in underwhelming fashion in Week 1, Maye has posted a 53.7% success rate in 7 consecutive games – a strong indicator that this has been one of the league’s most consistent passing attacks during that span. Looking at Atlanta’s early-week injury report, there’s a decent chance that streak could continue in Week 9.
As of Wednesday, DL Zach Harrison still hasn’t practiced for the Falcons. He was 2nd on the team in pressures through 7 weeks before missing last Sunday’s game against the Dolphins. LB Divine Deablo is on injured reserve, and starting slot cornerback Billy Bowman Jr. continues to be limited as well. On the offensive side of the ball, there is optimism that QB Michael Penix, WR Drake London, and TE Kyle Pitts will be available this weekend, but all of them were limited at practice on Wednesday. That’s more concerning for Penix and London, both of whom were inactive in Week 8.
New England still hasn’t played many tough opponents in 2025, but their week-to-week consistency is becoming difficult to overlook. They should be able to keep the good times rolling this weekend, playing at home.
2025 Weekly Results
- Week 1: 9-7
- Week 2: 11-5
- Week 3: 6-10
- Week 4: 11-4-1
- Week 5: 6-8
- Week 6: 8-7
- Week 7: 10-5
- Week 8: 8-5
Image Credit: Imagn