NFL Daily Fantasy D/ST: Week 14
Defense? Yes, we are talking about defense. Everyone’s favorite DFS position (other than kicker on some sites of course), where we all scroll to the bottom of the draft list and find the cheapest defense that has a decent matchup. Welcome to the weekly defense/special teams column where I will try to highlight some of the top defense/special teams plays for the week. I know defense tends to be an afterthought for some as they can be very boom or bust, but when you look at the final standings of these top heavy GPPs, often the choice at defense can be the difference in A LOT of money.
Defenses can make a huge difference in GPPs, but even in cash games, you do not want to spot your opponent points at any position by making “lazy” choices. You can certainly go cheap at defense many weeks, but I also think there are weeks where paying up for a top defense in the right matchup is the best play, especially in cash games. Defense and special team touchdowns can be unpredictable, but I also think you can put yourself in good situations to capitalize on those opportunities.
Week 13 2016 Recap
NOTE: The numbers below reflect an average of defensive fantasy points from the start of the 2014 season through Week 13 2016. Top plays and secondary plays only started in Week 7 2016 as a way to breakout defense that fit the criteria into two separate categories.
All Defenses that Fit the Criteria: 8.74
Top Plays (Defense that Fit the Criteria): 8.09
Secondary Plays (Defense that Fit the Criteria): 8.50
Other Defenses to Target: 8.22
All Favorites: 8.13
All Home Teams: 7.24
All Teams: 6.83
The defense that fit the criteria had a strong bounce back week in Week 13. The top play, New England, scored 12 fantasy points, which was good for the third highest score of the week. Baltimore, as a secondary play, finished with 15 fantasy points, which was the second highest of the week. Even Seattle and Green Bay put up respectable totals of eight fantasy points.
The only reason Baltimore did not have the highest score of the week was that the other defense to target, Denver, finished with the highest score of the week with 16 fantasy points. Overall, it was nice to have a strong week after several mediocre weeks.
Defenses that Fit the Criteria
At Home, Favored and Opponent Team Total of 21 points or less
Top Play
Detroit Lions ($4,600 FD, $3,600 DK)
Opponent: Chicago at Home
Spread: -8
Team Total: 17.75
Fantasy Pts Allowed: 7.42 (11th highest)
If you look at the Detroit Lions overall defensive stats, they are fairly average on the season. But when you look at the past six games, you will see they are only allowing 16.3 points per game to opposing offenses. This week they face a below average Bears offense that is still starting Matt Barkley at QB. Barkley looked OK last week against a bad Niners defense, but he is still a guy who has only completed 54% of his career passes and has thrown eight interceptions in 137 pass attempts. He’s also lost two fumbles. The Bears have the lowest projected team total in Vegas this week and I think this presents a great opportunity for the Detroit defense to create some turnovers. Picking defenses is all about opportunities and I think Detroit make a strong cash game or GPP play this week.
Secondary Options
New England Patriots ($4,700 FD, $3,400 DK)
Opponent: Baltimore at Home
Spread: -7
Team Total: 19.25
Fantasy Pts Allowed: 6.25 (18th highest)
The Patriots defense currently ranks ninth in the NFL in total defense but more importantly second in scoring defense, giving up only 17.3 points per game. They have 26 sacks on the season and have created 13 turnovers. This week they face a Baltimore offense that has looked really good at times but is still ranking in the bottom half of the league in both total offense and scoring offense. They also have turned the ball over 17 times on the season, and Joe Flacco has thrown an interception in five of his last six games. I expect the Ravens to be playing from behind so that should give the Patriots more opportunities for turnovers. I think the Patriots are a little overpriced on FanDuel but are worth a look as a GPP play on DraftKings.
Indianapolis Colts ($4,400 FD, $2,600 DK)
Opponent: Houston at Home
Spread: -6
Team Total: 20.5
Fantasy Pts Allowed: 8.17 (8th highest)
I will start by saying the Indianapolis Colts do not have a good defense. That being said, they are coming off a strong performance Monday night. Albeit, it was against a bad Jets offense, but the Colts had three interceptions in the game and two sacks, while holding the Jets to ten points scored. Fortunately for the Colts, they face another bad QB this week in Brock Osweiler. The Texans are fifth worst in the NFL in both total offense and scoring offense, and they have turned the ball over 20 times. This pick is not for the faint of heart, and probably not worth paying down on FanDuel, but at only $2600 on DraftKings, I think the Colts make a decent GPP flier.
San Francisco 49ers ($4,200 FD, $2,600 DK)
Opponent: New York Jets at Home
Spread: -2.5
Team Total: 20.75
Fantasy Pts Allowed: 11.25 (highest in NFL)
I never thought the 49ers defense would make this column as they are not a good defense. This is strictly a GPP punt play based on their opponent. The Jets have the fourth worst scoring offense in the NFL and they are tied for the league lead in turnovers with 25. They are currently allowing the most fantasy points to opposing defenses in the NFL. This week they are also starting Bryce Petty, a rookie, who has thrown three interceptions in 59 pass attempts this season. Anyone that watched the Jets on Monday night saw a team that quit. Do they come out and respond this week? I tend to leans towards “No,” even against a bad defense. The 49ers are worth a GPP punt/flier this week at a bargain bin price.
Other Defense to Target
Minnesota Vikings ($4,800 FD, $3,900 DK)
Opponent: Jacksonville on Road
Fantasy Pts Allowed: 9.08 (5th highest in NFL)
The Vikings defense came out strong to start the season, and even though they have not been quite as dominant lately, they still rank third in the NFL in total defense and fourth in scoring defense. They also rank fourth in the NFL in sacks and fourth in takeaways. Their opponent this week is a Jaguars offense that rank sixth worst in scoring offense and are tied for the lead league in turnovers with 25. They are giving up just over nine points per game to opposing defenses, which is fifth highest in the NFL. For me, this matchup lines up great for the Vikings defense, and even though they are expensive on both sites, they make one of the best cash game or GPP plays this week.