NFL DFS Air Yards Report: Reviewing Week 8
Air Yards are a statistic we use in NFL DFS to identify the quality of a players opportunity. When we can find players who have greater opportunity than their recent production shows, we can often benefit in our lineup choices on DraftKings, FanDuel, and Yahoo. In this article, we’ll open the RotoGrinders Usage App from JoshADHD and discover a few key air yards trends from recent weeks. We’ll look for players who have strong share of their team opportunity, but production that lags behind. We should be able to make better projections and find high upside at lower than expected projected ownership if we identify these players properly.
Today’s NFL DFS Air Yards Report
Jerry Jeudy
NFL Team: Denver Broncos
Position: WR
Share of Team Air Yards: 53.1%
Air Yards: 162
Air Conversion (RACR): 0.45
Jerry Jeudy surprisingly topped Week 8’s leaderboard with 162 air yards against the Los Angeles Chargers. Despite ample opportunity, Jeudy was inefficient with his looks, catching just 4-of-10 targets for 73 scoreless yards. Jeudy’s season-best 53.1% market share of air yards can partially be attributed to Tim Patrick being sidelined but it’s still encouraging to see the rookie wide receiver trending in the right direction. Jeudy and the Broncos get a juicy on-paper matchup against the Atlanta Falcons in Week 9 which will keep Jeudy in play in large-field tournaments regardless of Patrick’s availability.
Julio Jones
NFL Team: Atlanta Falcons
Position: WR
Share of Team Air Yards: 58.5%
Air Yards: 151
Air Conversion (RACR): 0.91
Calvin Ridley exited Week 8’s matchup against the Carolina Panthers after just 23 snaps and the end result was Julio Jones seeing his highest market share of air yards this season and his most total air yards since Week 1. While he didn’t score a touchdown, Jones made the most of his opportunity, catching 7-of-10 targets for 137 yards. If Ridley is unable to suit up for Week 9’s matchup against the Broncos, Jones is an excellent DFS option in all formats and a positively correlated pairing with the above mentioned Jerry Jeudy.
D.K. Metcalf
NFL Team: Seattle Seahawks
Position: WR
Share of Team Air Yards: 57.5%
Air Yards: 145
Air Conversion (RACR): 1.11
Lockett, Metcalf. Metcalf, Lockett. The two Seattle receivers seemingly take turns roasting opponents and Week 8 was Metcalf’s turn as he caught 12-of-15 targets for 161-yards and two touchdowns. Metcalf has led the team in market share of air yards (43%) all season long and remains a big-play threat on a weekly basis regardless of matchup. Metcalf is likely to draw lower ownership than Lockett this week due to a higher price tag and likely matchup against Tre’Davious White but don’t be surprised if he ends up posting another big fantasy performance.