NFL DFS First Look: Conference Championships - Odds and Matchup Preview

The NFL First Look is complete with sortable odds, implied team totals, DVOA rankings, adjusted sack rates, and adjusted line yards.

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NFL Schedule & Vegas Lines

Road Team Home Team Line Total Road Total Home Total Date Time (ET)
Tampa Bay Buccaneers Green Bay Packers GBP -3.5 50.5 23.5 27.0 Sunday 3:05 pm
Buffalo Bills Kansas City Chiefs KCC -3.0 53.5 25.3 28.3 Sunday 6:40 pm

Implied Team Totals, DVOA Rankings, and DVP Matchups

Offense Line Total Opp. DVOA vs. PASS vs. RUN DvP – QB DvP – RB DvP – WR DvP – TE
Kansas City Chiefs -3.0 28.3 BUF 12 12 17 15 20 5 28
Green Bay Packers -3.5 27.0 TBB 5 5 1 18 7 23 23
Buffalo Bills 3.0 25.3 KCC 22 16 31 25 25 2 26
Tampa Bay Buccaneers 3.5 23.5 GBP 17 15 18 3 28 3 3

Adjusted Sack Rates

Defensive Line ASR Opp. O-Line ASR Sack Potential
Kansas City Chiefs 18 Buffalo Bills 5 4
Green Bay Packers 10 Tampa Bay Buccaneers 3 2
Buffalo Bills 14 Kansas City Chiefs 4 3
Tampa Bay Buccaneers 6 Green Bay Packers 6 1

Adjusted Line Yards

Offensive Line ALY Opp. D-Line ALY Run Potential
Kansas City Chiefs 14 Buffalo Bills 19 4
Green Bay Packers 5 Tampa Bay Buccaneers 1 1
Buffalo Bills 15 Kansas City Chiefs 25 3
Tampa Bay Buccaneers 9 Green Bay Packers 23 2

Pace of Play

Team Sec/Play Sit. Neut. Opponent Sec/Play Sit. Neut. Game Avg. Game Rank
Kansas City Chiefs 13 7 BUF 28 11 14.8 1
Green Bay Packers 32 32 TBB 9 4 19.3 3
Buffalo Bills 28 11 KCC 13 7 14.8 1
Tampa Bay Buccaneers 9 4 GBP 32 32 19.3 3

Quarterbacks

Player Team Line Total DK Sal FD Sal YH Sal Pass Y/G Rush Y/G FPPG Opponent DVOA DVP
Patrick Mahomes KCC -3.0 28.3 $7,600 $9,000 $38 316.0 20.5 25.2 BUF 12 15
Josh Allen BUF 3.0 25.3 $6,900 $8,500 $40 284.0 26.3 25.6 KCC 16 25
Aaron Rodgers GBP -3.5 27.0 $6,500 $8,700 $33 268.7 9.3 24.5 TBB 5 18
Tom Brady TBB 3.5 23.5 $6,100 $7,800 $28 289.6 0.4 22.0 GBP 15 3

Running Backs

Player Team Line Total DK Sal FD Sal YH Sal Car/G Tar/G RZ/G FPPG Opp. DVOA DVP
Aaron Jones GBP -3.5 27.0 $6,500 $8,000 $31 14.4 4.5 3.4 18.5 TBB 1 7
Leonard Fournette TBB 3.5 23.5 $5,300 $7,200 $22 7.5 3.6 2.1 10.2 GBP 18 28
Darrel Williams KCC -3.0 28.3 $4,800 $6,000 $16 2.4 1.6 0.4 3.3 BUF 17 20
Devin Singletary BUF 3.0 25.3 $4,500 $5,800 $16 9.8 3.1 1.7 9.1 KCC 31 25
Le’Veon Bell KCC -3.0 28.3 $4,100 $5,100 $13 7.5 1.8 1.5 6.8 BUF 17 20

Wide Receivers

Player Team Line Total DK Sal FD Sal YH Sal Tar/G RZ/G FPPG Opponent DVP
Davante Adams GBP -3.5 27.0 $8,000 $8,900 $38 10.6 2.0 25.7 TBB 23
Tyreek Hill KCC -3.0 28.3 $7,200 $8,400 $33 9.0 1.3 21.9 BUF 5
Stefon Diggs BUF 3.0 25.3 $7,000 $8,300 $35 10.4 1.0 20.5 KCC 2
Mike Evans TBB 3.5 23.5 $5,800 $6,600 $24 6.8 1.1 15.5 GBP 3
Chris Godwin TBB 3.5 23.5 $5,400 $6,800 $26 7.0 0.8 15.9 GBP 3
Antonio Brown TBB 3.5 23.5 $4,700 $5,800 $18 7.8 0.6 14.6 GBP 3
John Brown BUF 3.0 25.3 $4,300 $5,600 $14 5.8 0.8 10.8 KCC 2
Allen Lazard GBP -3.5 27.0 $4,200 $5,700 $13 4.6 0.6 9.8 TBB 23
Cole Beasley BUF 3.0 25.3 $4,100 $5,700 $16 7.1 0.6 13.5 KCC 2
Mecole Hardman KCC -3.0 28.3 $4,000 $5,300 $13 3.9 0.3 7.8 BUF 5
Demarcus Robinson KCC -3.0 28.3 $3,700 $4,800 $14 3.7 0.3 6.9 BUF 5

Tight Ends

Player Team Line Total DK Sal FD Sal YH Sal Tar/G RZ/G FPPG Opponent DVP
Travis Kelce KCC -3.0 28.3 $8,000 $8,600 $34 9.7 1.3 20.8 BUF 28
Robert Tonyan GBP -3.5 27.0 $3,600 $5,700 $18 3.7 0.7 11.0 TBB 23
Rob Gronkowski TBB 3.5 23.5 $3,200 $5,200 $16 4.8 0.9 9.3 GBP 3

About the Author

  • Derek Farnsworth (Notorious)

  • Derek Farnsworth, aka Notorious, is one of the most recognizable names and faces in all of DFS, thanks in large part to the great advice he gives on a daily basis in RotoGrinders.com’s Grind Down for NBA and MLB as well as the First Look column that gives a preview of the day’s games from a DFS perspective. Before joining the RotoGrinders team, Derek received a Masters Degree from the University of Utah. When he’s not busy providing content, he’s dominating the industry as evidenced by his consistent top rankings in multiple sports. Farnsworth provides expert analysis for RotoGrinders Premium members on a daily basis during the NBA season and has also been nominated for five different Fantasy Sports Writer’s Association (FSWA) awards.

Comments

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