The NFL Grind Down: Sunday Night Football - Bengals vs. Bills
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In this article, we will take a look at the top DraftKings and FanDuel picks for the Bengals vs. Bills, go over potential sleepers, and even take a look at some player props that we can target on fantasy pick’em sites like Sleeper Fantasy ahead of this Sunday Night Football matchup.
NFL DFS Showdown DraftKings Picks and Sleepers — Bengals vs. Bills
I would love for some of these teams to prove me wrong, but it looks like the best two games on Sunday are bookending the main slate. We start the day off with the Chiefs and Dolphins in Germany and end it with the Bengals and Bills in Cincinnati. I’ll be honest, other than Thanksgiving, I have never been this excited for a single day of showdown slates.
These are two teams with Super Bowl aspirations and they should provide an excellent game environment for fantasy production. The game features a 2.5-point spread and a 50.5-point total. Let’s dive into the matchups and hopefully stay hot with the prop selection at the bottom of the page.
Key Injuries
Joe Mixon – Questionable (likely closer to probable)
Damien Harris – Out
Dawson Knox – Out
Cincinnati Bengals Preview
The Bengals were 1-3 after the first four games of the season and left many questioning whether they could even make a run at a wildcard spot. After beating the Cardinals, Seahawks, and Niners the last three weeks, they are now only one loss behind the Ravens for the division lead. Joe Burrow is reportedly back to full health after dealing with a calf injury at the start of the season and has put up 70 fantasy points in the last three games combined. It’s a tough draw here though, as the Bills have allowed the second fewest fantasy points to quarterbacks. I’ll be playing Burrow, but prefer him as a flex play rather than MVP or CPT.
Even with Tee Higgins back at full strength last week, Ja’Marr Chase led the way with 12 targets. He now boasts a 32% target share and a 43% air yards share on the season. The Bills might be a good defense, but they are still without Tre’Davious White and have been very mediocre at defending wide receivers this season. Chase deserves consideration at MVP and CPT. I wouldn’t give up on Higgins just yet, as he had his highest catch rate of the season against the Niners and provides nice leverage off of Chase in this spot. There’s also a path for the Burrow double stack to end up on the optimal lineup.
Tyler Boyd is the slot receiver and the clear third option for Burrow in the passing game, but that always leads to low ownership. You can use him as a pivot off of Chase or as a complementary piece. Trenton Irwin and Andrei Iosivas are both in the projections, but both have a good chance of ending the game with zero fantasy points. They should only be used as large-field tournament punts on DraftKings. Irv Smith caught all four of his targets last week and is finally healthy. The Bills have been tough against tight ends, but Smith is a viable per-dollar play on DraftKings ($1,600).
Dare I say it? Joe Mixon looked spry last week against the Niners. He averaged 5.6 yards per carry and caught all three of his targets. He finished the game with 110 yards from scrimmage and a touchdown. He’s listed as questionable for this game, but was able to practice on both Thursday and Friday. I’m expecting him to be a full-go in this one. The one area of weakness for the Bills defense this season has been on the ground. They are below the league average in DVOA against the run, rush EPA, and fantasy points allowed to running backs.
We’ve seen the Bills turn the ball over quite a bit this season and the Bengals do have a decent pass rush, but I’m not forcing their defense into lineups on this showdown slate. Evan McPherson has one of the best legs in football and could get a few field goal opportunities in this one.
Buffalo Bills Preview
The Bills have some good wins and some bad losses on the resume this season. They are 5-3 overall and looking to catch the Dolphins in the AFC East. They’ll look to exact some revenge against the Bengals, who knocked them out of the playoffs last season. Josh Allen might have the highest floor of any quarterback in the NFL and he has already topped 30 fantasy points three times this season. The Bengals have been a mediocre matchup for quarterbacks, and Allen’s rushing upside puts him on the table as a potential play at MVP and CPT.
With Dawson Knox on injured reserve, we saw a total of 29 targets go to the trio of Stefon Diggs, Gabe Davis, and Dalton Kincaid last week. Much like Chase on the other side, Diggs is the clear WR1 for the Bills and has incredible usage stats this season, a 31% target share and a 44% air yards share. I would argue that the players with the three highest ceilings on the slate are Chase, Allen, and Diggs. Davis is one of the most volatile receivers in football and is not for the risk-averse crowd. He offers upside, but has also scored 5 or fewer fantasy points in three games this season.
Kincaid looks like a smash play once again. He caught 5-of-7 targets last week against the Buccaneers and scored the first touchdown of his career. Knox is still out, and the Bengals are dead last in fantasy points allowed to tight ends this season. I’m hoping many will be scared to play him at this price point. Khalil Shakir, Trent Sherfield, and Deonte Harty will round out the receiving corps for the Bills. Shakir projects the best and is certainly affordable on DraftKings ($3,400).
I was hoping the absence of Damien Harris would be good for James Cook, but he continues to lose high-value touches to Latavius Murray. To make matters worse, the Bills have brought in Leonard Fournette. We’ll have to see if they activate him for this game or not. If they do, this backfield might be a situation to avoid other than using Fournette at the stone minimum on DraftKings ($200). I will note that this is an appealing matchup, as the Bengals are 25th in DVOA against the run and 23rd in rush EPA.
The way to beat the Bengals is to get pressure on Burrow, and the Bills have averaged the third most sacks per game this season. Their defense will certainly give up points here, but I could see them racking up sacks and potentially creating some turnovers. Tyler Bass is a strong option in all formats.
Lineup Construction Thoughts
Much like the morning game between the Chiefs and Dolphins, this is a slate where we want to jam in all of the studs. Josh Allen, Stefon Diggs, Joe Burrow, and Ja’Marr Chase are all going to be popular. This will lead to a lot of ownership on the super cheap punts on DraftKings and will lead to the mid-range getting overlooked. I like the idea of stacking the Bills and bringing it back with Chase or stacking the Bengals and bringing it back with Allen or Diggs. We can’t play all of the studs, so we have to be creative with our lineup construction, especially in tournaments.
Bengals-Bills DFS Salaries & Projections
| Player | Team | Pos | Proj | DK Sal | CPT Sal | DK/$ | FD Sal | FD/$ |
|---|---|---|---|---|---|---|---|---|
| Josh Allen | BUF | QB | 23.22 | $11,400 | $17,100 | 2.04 | $17,000 | 1.37 |
| Ja’Marr Chase | CIN | WR | 23.14 | $10,800 | $16,200 | 2.14 | $16,000 | 1.45 |
| Stefon Diggs | BUF | WR | 21.61 | $11,000 | $16,500 | 1.96 | $14,500 | 1.49 |
| Joe Burrow | CIN | QB | 21.40 | $10,200 | $15,300 | 2.10 | $15,000 | 1.43 |
| Joe Mixon | CIN | RB | 15.72 | $8,000 | $12,000 | 1.97 | $12,500 | 1.26 |
| Tee Higgins | CIN | WR | 13.58 | $6,600 | $9,900 | 2.06 | $10,000 | 1.36 |
| James Cook | BUF | RB | 12.58 | $6,200 | $9,300 | 2.03 | $10,500 | 1.20 |
| Gabriel Davis | BUF | WR | 11.36 | $7,400 | $11,100 | 1.54 | $11,500 | 0.99 |
| Dalton Kincaid | BUF | TE | 11.26 | $6,800 | $10,200 | 1.66 | $8,000 | 1.41 |
| Tyler Boyd | CIN | WR | 10.03 | $5,400 | $8,100 | 1.86 | $9,500 | 1.06 |
| Evan McPherson | CIN | K | 8.09 | $4,800 | $7,200 | 1.69 | $8,500 | 0.95 |
| Khalil Shakir | BUF | WR | 7.47 | $3,400 | $5,100 | 2.20 | $7,000 | 1.07 |
| Tyler Bass | BUF | K | 7.23 | $5,200 | $7,800 | 1.39 | $8,500 | 0.85 |
| Bills | BUF | DST | 6.43 | $4,200 | $6,300 | 1.53 | $9,000 | 0.71 |
| Bengals | CIN | DST | 6.34 | $3,800 | $5,700 | 1.67 | $9,000 | 0.70 |
| Irv Smith | CIN | TE | 5.48 | $1,600 | $2,400 | 3.43 | $7,500 | 0.73 |
| Leonard Fournette | BUF | RB | 4.26 | $200 | $300 | 21.30 | $7,000 | 0.61 |
| Latavius Murray | BUF | RB | 3.75 | $2,600 | $3,900 | 1.44 | $8,000 | 0.47 |
| Trenton Irwin | CIN | WR | 3.71 | $800 | $1,200 | 4.64 | $7,500 | 0.49 |
| Trayveon Williams | CIN | RB | 1.71 | $4,600 | $6,900 | 0.37 | $6,500 | 0.26 |
| Trent Sherfield | BUF | WR | 1.61 | $400 | $600 | 4.03 | $6,500 | 0.25 |
| Tanner Hudson | CIN | TE | 1.50 | $200 | $300 | 7.50 | $5,500 | 0.27 |
| Andrei Iosivas | CIN | WR | 1.31 | $1,000 | $1,500 | 1.31 | $6,000 | 0.22 |
| Deonte Harty | BUF | WR | 1.28 | $200 | $300 | 6.40 | $6,000 | 0.21 |
| Drew Sample | CIN | TE | 0.82 | $200 | $300 | 4.10 | $5,500 | 0.15 |
| Chris Evans | CIN | RB | 0.63 | $200 | $300 | 3.15 | $5,000 | 0.13 |
| Quintin Morris | BUF | TE | 0.57 | $200 | $300 | 2.85 | $5,000 | 0.11 |
Fantasy Sleepers
Dalton Kincaid: $6,800 DK / $10,200 FD
I get the feeling that everyone will want to play Kincaid in this game, but that very few will at this price point. Why not spend a little more and afford the likes of Allen, Burrow, Diggs, Higgins, and Chase? I was high on Kincaid last week and think another big game is in store for him here. He saw seven targets with Knox out of the lineup and is facing a Bengals team that is dead last in fantasy points allowed to tight ends this season.
Bengals vs. Bills Player Pick’em
Dalton Kincaid more than 39.5 receiving yards (1.80x) – Sleeper
I am writing this article before the start of the Chiefs and Dolphins, so hopefully Isiah Pacheco continued the hot streak and ended the game with more than 56.5 rushing yards (update: he did). I wasn’t expecting this article to turn into a Kincaid spotlight, but here we are. I’m not going to talk him up all throughout the article and then not take the “more than” on his 39.5 receiving yard number. For all of the reasons mentioned above, Kincaid shouldn’t have an issue getting 40 yards.