The NFL Grind Down: Monday Night Football - Bills vs. Broncos
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In this article, we will take a look at the top DraftKings and FanDuel picks for Bills vs. Broncos, go over potential sleepers, and even take a look at some player props that we can target on fantasy pick’em sites like Sleeper Fantasy ahead of this Monday Night Football matchup.
NFL DFS Showdown DraftKings Picks and Sleepers — Bills vs. Broncos
Most Sundays during the season are tilting, but yesterday was one of the most tilting days of NFL DFS that I can remember. We don’t have to waste time getting into the specifics, but pregame reports got me off of a couple players that both ended up having huge games. I sincerely hope all of you had a better main slate than I did.
Yesterday is now in the rearview mirror, and we turn our focus to the Bills and Broncos. Both of these teams have underwhelmed so far this season and are looking to make a statement with a win on Monday night. The Bills are listed as 7-point favorites, and the game features a 47.5-point total.
Key Injuries
Dawson Knox – Out
Damien Harris – Out
Greg Dulcich – Out
Buffalo Bills Preview
Unlike last night’s Showdown slate, we actually have a quarterback that we can consider using in the MVP and CPT roster spots. Josh Allen has topped 25 fantasy points in five of his last six games and is capable of both throwing for 300 yards and running for another 50 yards. He’s arguably Buffalo’s best goal-line option as well, which gives him a number of paths to being the top scorer on the slate. A matchup against the Broncos is certainly enticing, as Denver is dead last in both DVOA against the pass and dropback EPA this season.
Try as I might, I can’t find any information on whether or not Leonard Fournette will be active for this game. He’s not in the player pool, but we still need to know if he’s going to play. For our purposes, let’s assume that he’s not going to play. James Cook was extremely efficient in the early part of the season but has not had a major role in the offense over the last five games. Last week against the Bengals, he had 6 carries and 4 targets, which was the 2nd-fewest number of opportunities he has had all season.
Latavius Murray has been held under 5 fantasy points in five straight games. The only positive for him is that he might see a goal-line carry. While I’m not prioritizing these running backs, I should note that the Broncos have been a bottom-5 run defense this season. They have also allowed the most fantasy points of any team to the position.
There are few wide receivers with better usage numbers than Stefon Diggs. He boasts a 29% target share and a 41% air yards share in one of the most potent offenses in the NFL. This week, he squares off against the league’s worst pass defense. He might be the only player with a ceiling that rivals that of Allen. As is always the case, Gabe Davis is a boom-or-bust option that should be reserved for tournaments. His last five outings are a perfect example, as he’s scored 25, 4, 2, 24, and 0 fantasy points.
With Dawson Knox out, we have really seen Dalton Kincaid shine. In the last two games, he has caught 15-of-18 targets for 146 yards and a touchdown. If Patrick Surtain is able to hold Diggs in check and if Davis forgets that there is a football game again, Kincaid could lead the team in targets. He’s very expensive, which makes him one of the more interesting price points of the slate. Khalil Shakir, Deonte Harty, and Trent Sherfield will all see a handful of snaps and can be mixed into lineups on DraftKings.
The Bills defense is in about as good of a spot as you can ask for — they are large home favorites, they are top 10 in pressure rate, and the Broncos have allowed the 2nd-highest pressure rate this season. Tyler Bass has been quiet in the last five games but scored at least 14 fantasy points in three of the first four games of the season.
Denver Broncos Preview
The Broncos have won two games in a row and are coming off of a bye, so they could be a dangerous team in this game. I’m a firm believer that Russell Wilson hasn’t been as good as his 18.5 fantasy points per game would lead you to believe, but he’s certainly viable on a Showdown slate. If we can talk ourselves into Aidan O’Connell and Zach Wilson, we can stomach ‘Mr. Unlimited.’ The Bills have allowed the 7th-fewest fantasy points to quarterbacks this season but are without some key pieces on defense (Tre’Davious White, Matt Milano, and DaQuan Jones).
The Broncos haven’t had the most predictable backfield in the league, but Javonte Williams started to separate himself before the bye. He played on 53% and 63% of the snaps, respectively, the last two games and draws a decent matchup against the Bills, who are below league average in rush EPA and fantasy points allowed to running backs. Jaleel McLaughlin and Samaje Perine will still be involved, but Williams has the best chance of seeing 15+ touches. The problem is that he’s not a huge part of the passing game and that the Broncos are touchdown-sized underdogs in this game.
The Broncos haven’t been a high-volume passing offense this season, but that could change this week if they fall behind early. Courtland Sutton (20% target rate, 35% air yards rate) and Jerry Jeudy (20% target rate, 34% air yards rate) have nearly identical usage numbers this season, but Sutton has been more productive in fantasy because he has scored 6 touchdowns. I don’t see much separating these two on paper, so I’ll let ownership decide which one I have more exposure to in DFS.
I want Denzel Mims to have a bigger role. You want Denzel Mims to have a bigger role. Sean Payton wants to use him on special teams while giving Lil’Jordan Humphrey more snaps than he deserves. I’ll have some exposure to Mims, but it feels like I’m chasing something that doesn’t actually exist. With Greg Dulcich out, Adam Trautman will serve as Denver’s top tight end. While we should keep expectations low, it’s hard to argue against using him at $200 on DraftKings.
The last time we saw the Broncos, they were terrific against Patrick Mahomes and company. If you think they can keep it going, by all means, use their defense in Showdown. Personally, their metrics are too ugly for my liking. Wil Lutz is viable, but he’s my 2nd-favorite kicking option in this game.
Lineup Construction Thoughts
How do we not load up on the Bills in this game? They haven’t been able to run the ball and have a very concentrated passing attack. On top of that, they are facing the worst pass defense in the NFL. I don’t see a scenario where Allen doesn’t end up on the optimal lineup, and he’s easily my favorite target at MVP and CPT. Diggs and Kincaid are my next favorite targets, but I will mix in Davis and Shakir as well. I don’t mind building full onslaughts that include Buffalo’s defense and Bass. Ultimately, if three or more Broncos are needed to win on this slate, I am fine taking the loss and moving onto the Thursday slate.
Bills-Broncos DFS Salaries & Projections
| Player | Team | Pos | Proj | DK Sal | CPT Sal | DK/$ | FD Sal | FD/$ |
|---|---|---|---|---|---|---|---|---|
| Josh Allen | BUF | QB | 23.94 | $12,600 | $18,900 | 1.90 | $17,500 | 1.37 |
| Stefon Diggs | BUF | WR | 20.70 | $12,000 | $18,000 | 1.73 | $15,500 | 1.34 |
| Russell Wilson | DEN | QB | 15.95 | $9,400 | $14,100 | 1.70 | $15,000 | 1.06 |
| Javonte Williams | DEN | RB | 14.39 | $7,200 | $10,800 | 2.00 | $12,000 | 1.20 |
| James Cook | BUF | RB | 13.02 | $10,000 | $15,000 | 1.30 | $11,000 | 1.18 |
| Dalton Kincaid | BUF | TE | 12.19 | $8,400 | $12,600 | 1.45 | $10,500 | 1.16 |
| Jerry Jeudy | DEN | WR | 11.79 | $6,800 | $10,200 | 1.73 | $10,000 | 1.18 |
| Courtland Sutton | DEN | WR | 11.53 | $7,000 | $10,500 | 1.65 | $13,000 | 0.89 |
| Gabriel Davis | BUF | WR | 10.09 | $7,400 | $11,100 | 1.36 | $12,500 | 0.81 |
| Tyler Bass | BUF | K | 8.25 | $5,200 | $7,800 | 1.59 | $8,500 | 0.97 |
| Khalil Shakir | BUF | WR | 7.58 | $4,400 | $6,600 | 1.72 | $8,000 | 0.95 |
| Bills | BUF | DST | 7.26 | $5,000 | $7,500 | 1.45 | $9,500 | 0.76 |
| Wil Lutz | DEN | K | 6.69 | $4,600 | $6,900 | 1.45 | $9,000 | 0.74 |
| Jaleel McLaughlin | DEN | RB | 5.92 | $2,600 | $3,900 | 2.28 | $8,000 | 0.74 |
| Latavius Murray | BUF | RB | 5.92 | $1,800 | $2,700 | 3.29 | $7,500 | 0.79 |
| Samaje Perine | DEN | RB | 5.80 | $1,400 | $2,100 | 4.14 | $7,000 | 0.83 |
| Marvin Mims | DEN | WR | 5.16 | $3,800 | $5,700 | 1.36 | $7,500 | 0.69 |
| Broncos | DEN | DST | 3.90 | $3,200 | $4,800 | 1.22 | $8,500 | 0.46 |
| Adam Trautman | DEN | TE | 3.87 | $200 | $300 | 19.35 | $6,500 | 0.60 |
| Trent Sherfield | BUF | WR | 2.02 | $800 | $1,200 | 2.53 | $6,500 | 0.31 |
| Deonte Harty | BUF | WR | 2.00 | $200 | $300 | 10.00 | $6,000 | 0.33 |
| Lil’Jordan Humphrey | DEN | WR | 1.81 | $200 | $300 | 9.05 | $5,500 | 0.33 |
| Chris Manhertz | DEN | TE | 0.92 | $200 | $300 | 4.60 | $5,000 | 0.18 |
Fantasy Sleepers
Tyler Bass: $5,200 DK / $8,500 FD
Bass is expensive, and the game-log watchers will see his mediocre outings over the last five games. I’m not saying he’s going to be contrarian, but I don’t expect him to be too popular. The Bills can move the ball with the best of them, but they have struggled to run the ball recently. If that continues, they could stall out drives once they get into the red zone. My hot take last night was that Greg Zuerlein would kick at least 4 field goals (he did), and I’m running it back with at least 3 field goals for Bass tonight.
Bills vs. Broncos Player Pick’em
Dalton Kincaid more than 52.5 Receiving Yards (1.76x) – Sleeper
We got back on track last night with Zuerlein getting more than 5.5 kicking points, and we’ll look to keep it going with a tight end from my alma mater. Kincaid has been a major part of the offense since Knox went on injured reserve. He’s seen 18 targets over the last two games and has 65 and 81 receiving yards, respectively, in those outings. The matchup is certainly in his favor, as the Broncos has allowed the 7th-most receiving yards to tight ends this season.