The NFL Grind Down: Thursday Night Football - Bills vs. Dolphins
In this article, we will take a look at the top DraftKings and FanDuel picks for Bills vs. Dolphins, go over potential NFL DFS sleepers, and even take a look at some picks that we can target on fantasy pick’em sites like Sleeper Fantasy ahead of this Thursday Night Football matchup. To build the best lineups possible, check out LineupHQ. In my opinion, it is the best NFL DFS optimizer in the industry.
NFL DFS Showdown DraftKings Picks and Sleepers — Bills vs. Dolphins
It was an interesting Week 1 in the NFL, as three of the best games were in primetime spots. The NFL put so many of the best teams in the primetime games that it left the main slate without a lot of star power. We saw some ugly games on Sunday. It’s typically the opposite, at least for the Thursday Night Football game. However, we get spoiled once again, as the Bills and Dolphins are set to square off on this Showdown slate. Neither team looked particularly impressive in their home openers, but they both managed to come away with victories. It’s still so early in the season, but this game could end up having big implications in the division. It should be a fun one, as the spread is set at 2 points, and the total is set at 49 points.
Key Injuries
Raheem Mostert – Out
Devon Achane – GTD
Buffalo Bills Preview
The Bills have had the Dolphins number over the last 5 years. They have won 8 of the last 9 meetings, the lone loss coming in that September game in Miami when it was extremely hot and the sun was baking out the entire Buffalo sideline. Despite losing his best two wideouts this offseason, Josh Allen did what Josh Allen always does — score fantasy points. In Week 1 against the Cardinals, he threw for 232 yards, rushed for 39 yards, and scored four total touchdowns. His performance was good enough for 32 DK / 31 FD points. He now faces a shorthanded Dolphins defense that was 24th in EPA against the pass in Week 1 against the Jaguars. Allen is close to a must-play and is one of the top targets at MVP and CPT.
There are concentrated passing attacks and then there’s the Buffalo Bills. Allen threw the ball to 9 different players in Week 1. Here’s a quick recap of the wideout usage against the Cardinals:
Keon Coleman: 87% route percentage, 22% target rate, 28% air yards share
Khalil Shakir: 70% route percentage, 13% target rate, 6% air yards share
Mack Hollins: 53% route percentage, 9% target rate, 14% air yards share
Curtis Samuel: 30% route percentage, 9% target rate, 1% air yards share
Marquez Valdes-Scantling: 13% route percentage, 9% target rate, 33% air yards share
Dalton Kincaid: 80% route percentage, 4% target rate, 3% air yards share
Dawson Knox: 43% route percentage, 9% target rate, 12% air yards share
Most expected Kincaid to be the primary beneficiary with Stefon Diggs and Gabe Davis onto greener pastures, but that wasn’t the case last week. He was only able to haul in 1 of his 2 targets for 11 yards. Coleman led the team in route percentage (87%), targets (5), receptions (4), and receiving yards (51). The touchdowns didn’t go to Kincaid or Coleman, as Shakir and Hollins both found the end zone. Now, we shouldn’t put too much stock into what happened in a single football game, but the usage for Coleman was certainly encouraging. This sets up as a great buy-low spot for Kincaid, who still ran a route on 80% of Allen’s dropbacks in Week 1. For large-field tournaments, MVS isn’t the craziest option. While he wasn’t on the field much, he did see 33% of the team’s air yards. Ultimately, all of these wideouts are dart throws outside of Coleman and Kincaid.
The Dolphins did an excellent job of stopping the run against the Jaguars in Week 1, but the Bills have a better offense as a whole. James Cook saw 22 opportunities against the Cardinals and turned them into 102 yards from scrimmage. The problem with Cook is his lack of touchdown upside. He only had 2 rushing touchdowns compared to Allen’s 15 last season, and in Week 1, Allen scored both of the team’s rushing touchdowns. Cook is still viable thanks to his efficiency on the ground and his involvement in the passing game, but don’t come yelling at me when the Bills get down to the 2-yard line and do another quarterback draw. Ray Davis will continue to serve as the RB2 behind Cook. He turned his 4 opportunities into 27 yards in Week 1.
The Bills defense had the 7th-highest pressure rate in Week 1, but the Dolphins offensive line allowed the 4th-lowest pressure rate. The Dolphins like to get the ball out quickly and have one of the most potent offenses in the league. I’m fine being underweight on the Bills D/ST. Kicker Tyler Bass is viable in cash games but might not have the ceiling needed to take down a tournament unless he decides to pull a Jake Moody and make 6 field goals.
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Miami Dolphins Preview
We didn’t exactly see the high-flying Dolphins offense that we are used to in Week 1, but they still managed to gain over 400 yards from scrimmage. In the end, it was their defense that saved the day. Tua Tagovailoa was one of only two quarterbacks to throw for over 300 yards last week. He finished the game with 338 yards and a touchdown. While he doesn’t offer much on the ground, he arguably has the safest floor in this game outside of Josh Allen. He is viable in all formats, but as I always say with pocket passers, I don’t love using him at MVP and CPT in tournaments. If he has a big game through the air, one of his wideouts will likely have a bigger fantasy outing than him.
The Dolphins have one of the most concentrated passing attacks in the NFL. Here’s a quick recap of their wideout usage from Week 1:
Tyreek Hill: 66% route percentage, 30% target rate, 64% air yards share
Jaylen Waddle: 66% route percentage, 14% target rate, 32% air yards share
Braxton Berrios: 37% route percentage, 5% target rate, 7% air yards share
Jonnu Smith: 34% route percentage, 5% target rate, 1% air yards share
Durham Smythe: 32% route percentage, 8% target rate, 8% air yards share
Despite a run-in with the police before the game, Hill was able to suit up and have himself a huge day. He caught 7-of-12 targets for 130 yards and a touchdown. The Jaguars played man coverage on 73% of snaps, which was easily the highest of any team in the league. I’m not sure what the strategy was there, but that’s my Jaguars for you. The Bills play a lot more zone than man coverage and have had success against Hill in the past. In his last 5 games against Buffalo, he has averaged 5.6 receptions, 61 yards, and 0.6 touchdowns. I’m not trying to talk you out of playing Hill on Thursday, but there’s at least an argument not to go all-in on him.
Jaylen Waddle ran the same number of routes as Hill and saw 32% of the team’s air yards. He didn’t have nearly the same target share as Hill, but that’s going to happen in games throughout the season. Surprisingly, he has had much better success against the Bills, topping 100 yards in two of their last three meetings. After Hill and Waddle, the Dolphins used three different receivers to fill out their three-receiver sets. None are particularly appealing DFS options. Despite bringing in Smith this offseason, the Dolphins used four different tight ends in Week 1. Three ran a route on at least 24% of dropbacks, and none ran a route on more than 34% of dropbacks. I’m still willing to play Smith at $2,800, as he should be a nice fit in this offense.
The biggest question mark of this game is the health of Miami’s backfield. Devon Achane suffered an ankle injury and didn’t practice on Monday. Raheem Mostert suffered a chest injury and didn’t practice on Monday. The situation is fairly simple if one or both running backs end up being out on Thursday. If Achane is out, Mostert becomes an excellent option in all formats. If Mostert is out, Achane becomes an excellent option in all formats. Jeff Wilson will serve as the backup if one is out and will be the primary back if both are out. If both players are active, Achane deserves a higher projection than Mostert. He turned his 17 touches into 100 yards and a touchdown in Week 1. A matchup against the Bills is certainly enticing, especially with star linebacker Matt Milano out.
Wednesday Update: Raheem Mostert has been ruled out, while Devon Achane is officially a game-time decision. Jeff Wilson should have a big role regardless but will draw the start if Achane is unable to suit up. If that happens, you are going to see a lot of Wilson CPT lineups on DraftKings. Jaylen Wright would become a strong value as well.
The Dolphins defense had the 3rd-highest pressure rate in Week 1, but it’s still hard to make a case for them on Thursday night. They are facing an elite quarterback in a game that features a high total. Similar to the kicker on the opposite side, I prefer using Jason Sanders in cash games over tournaments for this specific slate.
Lineup Construction Thoughts
The Bills are an interesting offense in that they don’t have a concentrated passing attack. Josh Allen is going to spread the ball around and is more than capable of scoring multiple rushing touchdowns (as we saw in Week 1). This makes me more interested in using Allen at MVP and CPT and less interested in stacking the Bills. When it comes to the Dolphins, they have a very concentrated offense. We know the carries and targets are essentially going to funnel to four players in particular (Hill, Waddle, Achane, Mostert). While I expect this to be a competitive game, I will naturally have more exposure to the Dolphins given the nature of these two offenses. Unlike the NYJ/SF game on Monday night, this isn’t a spot where I want much exposure to the defenses or kickers.
Bills vs. Dolphins DFS Salaries & Projections
| Player | Team | Pos | Proj | DK Sal | CPT Sal | DK/$ | FD Sal | FD/$ |
|---|---|---|---|---|---|---|---|---|
| Josh Allen | BUF | QB | 22.87 | $11,000 | $16,500 | 2.08 | $17,000 | 1.35 |
| Tyreek Hill | MIA | WR | 22.10 | $11,600 | $17,400 | 1.91 | $16,500 | 1.34 |
| Devon Achane | MIA | RB | 18.21 | $9,600 | $14,400 | 1.90 | $12,500 | 1.46 |
| Tua Tagovailoa | MIA | QB | 17.89 | $9,400 | $14,100 | 1.90 | $14,000 | 1.28 |
| Jaylen Waddle | MIA | WR | 17.55 | $8,600 | $12,900 | 2.04 | $11,000 | 1.60 |
| James Cook | BUF | RB | 15.71 | $9,000 | $13,500 | 1.75 | $12,000 | 1.31 |
| Keon Coleman | BUF | WR | 12.31 | $5,800 | $8,700 | 2.12 | $10,000 | 1.23 |
| Dalton Kincaid | BUF | TE | 11.44 | $7,200 | $10,800 | 1.59 | $9,500 | 1.20 |
| Khalil Shakir | BUF | WR | 10.20 | $6,200 | $9,300 | 1.65 | $10,500 | 0.97 |
| Jeff Wilson | MIA | RB | 8.62 | $2,400 | $3,600 | 3.59 | $6,500 | 1.33 |
| Jason Sanders | MIA | K | 7.80 | $4,400 | $6,600 | 1.77 | $9,000 | 0.87 |
| Tyler Bass | BUF | K | 7.19 | $4,800 | $7,200 | 1.50 | $9,000 | 0.80 |
| Curtis Samuel | BUF | WR | 6.60 | $5,400 | $8,100 | 1.22 | $8,000 | 0.83 |
| Dolphins | MIA | DST | 6.08 | $3,000 | $4,500 | 2.03 | $8,500 | 0.72 |
| Bills | BUF | DST | 5.35 | $4,000 | $6,000 | 1.34 | $8,500 | 0.63 |
| Mack Hollins | BUF | WR | 4.16 | $1,600 | $2,400 | 2.60 | $8,000 | 0.52 |
| Jonnu Smith | MIA | TE | 3.82 | $2,800 | $4,200 | 1.36 | $7,500 | 0.51 |
| Dawson Knox | BUF | TE | 3.76 | $2,600 | $3,900 | 1.45 | $7,000 | 0.54 |
| Durham Smythe | MIA | TE | 3.76 | $1,000 | $1,500 | 3.76 | $6,000 | 0.63 |
| Braxton Berrios | MIA | WR | 3.44 | $1,200 | $1,800 | 2.87 | $7,000 | 0.49 |
| Jaylen Wright | MIA | RB | 3.19 | $2,000 | $3,000 | 1.60 | $5,500 | 0.58 |
| Ray Davis | BUF | RB | 2.57 | $3,600 | $5,400 | 0.71 | $7,500 | 0.34 |
| Ty Johnson | BUF | RB | 2.23 | $2,200 | $3,300 | 1.01 | $6,000 | 0.37 |
| Julian Hill | MIA | TE | 1.06 | $600 | $900 | 1.77 | $5,500 | 0.19 |
| Marquez Valdes-Scantling | BUF | WR | 1.01 | $1,800 | $2,700 | 0.56 | $6,500 | 0.16 |
Fantasy Sleepers
Jaylen Waddle: $8,600 DK / $11,000 FD
Waddle is too talented of a receiver to be a sleeper in season-long leagues, but he could be a sleeper on this slate. Everyone will try to force in Allen, Tua, Achane, and Hill. If you start builds there, you can’t afford Waddle. As noted earlier, the Bills have quietly done an excellent job at holding Hill in check over the last three seasons. Meanwhile, Waddle has topped 100 receiving yards in 2 of his last 3 games against Buffalo. We should be encouraged by his usage stats in Week 1 and can expect a higher target share in Week 2.
Bills vs. Dolphins Fantasy Pick’em
Season Fantasy Pick’em Record: 4-0
James Cook more than 17.5 receiving yards (1.89x) – Sleeper Fantasy
Cook had at least 18 receiving yards in 9 of his 17 games last season and had at least 14 receiving yards in 12 of 17 games last season. In the season opener against the Cardinals, he caught all 3 of his targets and had 32 receiving yards. While nothing really stands out about the 2-reception, 15-yard game from Travis Etienne against the Dolphins in Week 1, it’s worth noting that the Jaguars only completed 12 passes the entire game. With Diggs and Davis gone, I expect Cook to have a big role in the passing game all season.
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