The NFL DFS Grind Down: Monday Night Football - Bills vs. Jets
In this article, we will take a look at the top DraftKings and FanDuel picks for the Bills vs. Jets, go over potential NFL DFS sleepers, and even take a look at some picks we can target on Fantasy Pick’em sites like Sleeper Fantasy ahead of this Monday Night Football matchup. As always, check the NFL weather page each week to see if any games will be impacted by wind or rain.
NFL DFS Showdown DraftKings Picks and Sleepers — Bills vs. Jets
The Showdown slates in Week 6 have been UGLY. I suppose the SF/SEA game was entertaining, but we got two duds on Sunday with the JAX/CHI and CIN/NYG. It’s pretty wild to think the Dodgers outscored both the Giants and Mets last night. Anyway, we are here to talk about two AFC North rivals. The Bills have lost their last 2 games after starting 3-0, while the Jets have lost the last 2 games after starting 2-1. This should be a competitive affair, as the game features a 1-point spread and a 40.5-point total.
Key Injuries
James Cook – Questionable [Limited Practice]
Khalil Shakir – Questionable [Limited Practice]
Tyler Conklin – Questionable [Limited Practice]
Buffalo Bills Preview
The Bills looked incredible in the first 3 games of the season, but we have to remember they faced the Cardinals, the Dolphins (Tua Tagovailoa left the game early), and the Jaguars. They haven’t looked nearly as sharp in the last 2 games, losing to the Ravens and Texans. Josh Allen took some big shots in those games but isn’t on the injury report. He has another tough test on Monday night, as the Jets have a 40% pressure rate while allowing the fewest fantasy points of any team to opposing quarterbacks. Despite the matchup, Allen is close to a must play for me on this slate and deserves heavy consideration at MVP and Captain.
Let’s take a look at the wideout usage for Buffalo in the first 4 games of the season (I excluded Week 5 since Khalil Shakir was out):
Khalil Shakir: 68% route percentage, 18% target rate, 12% air yards share
Keon Coleman: 64% route percentage, 11% target rate, 21% air yards share
Mack Hollins: 56% route percentage, 10% target rate, 18% air yards share
Dalton Kincaid: 63% route percentage, 16% target rate, 14% air yards share
Dawson Knox: 39% route percentage, 4% target rate, 3% air yards share
After logging limited practices this week, Shakir is on the right side of questionable. He’s scored double-digit fantasy points in every game this season and should have a high floor each week given his route tree and target share. The best part about this week is that he’ll avoid coverage from Sauce Gardner and DJ Reed on the outside. Keon Coleman, Mack Hollins, and Curtis Samuel will have to lock horns with those two elite cornerbacks. I’ll side with Shakir as my favorite receiver here.
I keep wanting Dalton Kincaid to be a thing and I keep being disappointed. He did score a touchdown in Week 3 but has yet to top 50 yards in any game this season. The positives are that he’s seen 13 targets in the last 2 games and that the Jets are extremely tough outside receivers. The negatives are that he’s not cheap and that the Jets have allowed the 3rd-fewest fantasy points to tight ends this season.
James Cook has been limited in practice this week but seems on the right side of questionable. While he’s been extremely productive for fantasy this season, he has only averaged 16.3 opportunities per game. The best way to move the ball against the Jets this season has been on the ground. New York is 30th in PFF’s grades against the run and 14th in EPA against the run. Ty Johnson will continue to play the backup role.
Both defenses are viable in this spot. The Jets have struggled to move the ball at times and aren’t a team built to play with a deficit. Kicking points could be more important given the low total in this game. Tyler Bass is a strong value play for all formats.
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New York Jets Preview
The Jets are looking to bounce back after losses to the Broncos and Vikings. Aaron Rodgers has yet to throw for more than 281 yards in a game this season but does have multiple touchdown passes in 3 of the last 4 games. There’s been so much turmoil in the locker room that Robert Saleh is no longer the head coach. The way I see it, Rodgers is essentially a player/coach at this point. He draws a mediocre matchup against the Bills, who have a decent pass rush and are 7th in EPA against the pass. Rodgers is viable here, but I will prioritize his playmakers over him in most of my lineups.
Let’s take a look at the wideout usage for the Jets over the last 3 games:
Garrett Wilson: 91% route percentage, 30% target rate, 34% air yards share
Allen Lazard: 85% route percentage, 16% target rate, 20% air yards share
Mike Williams: 63% route percentage, 10% target rate, 19% air yards share
Tyler Conklin: 76% route percentage, 17% target rate, 19% air yards share
Garrett Wilson is coming off a 22-target game. He had over 100 receiving yards, but it wasn’t the most productive day given the volume. He’s clearly the favorite target for Rodgers and is one of the top options at MVP and Captain. The Bills have been tough on wide receivers thus far, but I’m crediting that to their soft opening schedule. Allen Lazard has seen 18 targets in the last 2 games and has already caught 5 touchdowns this season. Mike Williams hasn’t had a big game with the Jets yet, but his route rate continues to go up. He’s a sneaky tournament play. Tyler Conklin has a nice matchup and has had at least 6 targets in each of the last 3 games.
Breece Hall has not paid off his high draft capital in season-long leagues but draws one of his best matchups to date. The Bills are 22nd or worse in PFF’s grades against the run, EPA against the run, and fantasy points allowed to running backs. This is a classic get-right spot at home against a team that’s struggled against running backs. Outside of Josh Allen, Hall is my favorite option at MVP and Captain. Braelon Allen continues to have a big role. If all of New York’s touchdowns come on the ground, we could certainly see both of these running backs make the optimal lineup.
The Jets still have one of the best pass defenses in the NFL. If the offense can put up some points early, the defense could pin their ears back and go after Allen. Kicker Greg Zuerlein is still one of the best kickers in the NFL.
Lineup Construction Thoughts
On the Bills side, Josh Allen is my favorite target. He’s a quarterback who doesn’t always need to be paired with his wideouts, as he’s capable of taking over a game with his legs. On the Jets side, I have a lot more interest in the playmakers than in Aaron Rodgers. My favorite three spends on the slate are Allen, Breece Hall, and Garrett Wilson. Given the low total of the game, kicking points could be more valuable. I plan to be overweight on both kickers.
Bills vs. Jets DFS Salaries & Projections
| Player | Team | Pos | Proj | DK Sal | CPT Sal | DK/$ | FD Sal | FD/$ |
|---|---|---|---|---|---|---|---|---|
| Josh Allen | BUF | QB | 18.77 | $11,000 | $16,500 | 1.71 | $16,500 | 1.14 |
| Breece Hall | NYJ | RB | 18.38 | $9,400 | $14,100 | 1.96 | $13,500 | 1.36 |
| Garrett Wilson | NYJ | WR | 16.53 | $10,000 | $15,000 | 1.65 | $14,500 | 1.14 |
| James Cook | BUF | RB | 15.04 | $10,200 | $15,300 | 1.47 | $14,000 | 1.07 |
| Aaron Rodgers | NYJ | QB | 14.88 | $9,000 | $13,500 | 1.65 | $13,000 | 1.14 |
| Khalil Shakir | BUF | WR | 10.07 | $8,600 | $12,900 | 1.17 | $11,500 | 0.88 |
| Dalton Kincaid | BUF | TE | 9.95 | $8,200 | $12,300 | 1.21 | $11,000 | 0.90 |
| Allen Lazard | NYJ | WR | 9.30 | $7,200 | $10,800 | 1.29 | $10,500 | 0.89 |
| Keon Coleman | BUF | WR | 7.54 | $6,800 | $10,200 | 1.11 | $10,000 | 0.75 |
| Tyler Conklin | NYJ | TE | 7.41 | $4,000 | $6,000 | 1.85 | $8,000 | 0.93 |
| Braelon Allen | NYJ | RB | 6.97 | $5,400 | $8,100 | 1.29 | $9,500 | 0.73 |
| Greg Zuerlein | NYJ | K | 6.90 | $4,400 | $6,600 | 1.57 | $9,000 | 0.77 |
| Bills | BUF | DST | 6.69 | $4,600 | $6,900 | 1.45 | $8,500 | 0.79 |
| Tyler Bass | BUF | K | 6.66 | $5,000 | $7,500 | 1.33 | $9,000 | 0.74 |
| Jets | NYJ | DST | 6.27 | $3,600 | $5,400 | 1.74 | $8,500 | 0.74 |
| Mike Williams | NYJ | WR | 5.93 | $5,600 | $8,400 | 1.06 | $8,000 | 0.74 |
| Mack Hollins | BUF | WR | 4.72 | $2,400 | $3,600 | 1.97 | $7,500 | 0.63 |
| Curtis Samuel | BUF | WR | 4.36 | $2,800 | $4,200 | 1.56 | $7,000 | 0.62 |
| Ty Johnson | BUF | RB | 3.10 | $5,200 | $7,800 | 0.60 | $7,500 | 0.41 |
| Marquez Valdes-Scantling | BUF | WR | 2.70 | $2,000 | $3,000 | 1.35 | $6,500 | 0.42 |
| Jeremy Ruckert | NYJ | TE | 2.59 | $1,200 | $1,800 | 2.16 | $5,000 | 0.52 |
| Dawson Knox | BUF | TE | 2.25 | $1,600 | $2,400 | 1.41 | $6,500 | 0.35 |
| Ray Davis | BUF | RB | 2.13 | $3,000 | $4,500 | 0.71 | $7,000 | 0.30 |
Fantasy Sleepers
Dalton Kincaid: $8,200 DK / $11,000 FD
For a player who hasn’t topped 47 receiving yards all season, he seems awfully overpriced given his difficult matchup against the Jets. However, I don’t expect Josh Allen to go after the two outside cornerbacks very often in this one. He might focus most of his attention on the middle of the field, which sets up well for both Dalton Kincaid and Khalil Shakir. Given the expected scoring in this game, a touchdown from Kincaid could land him in the optimal lineup.
Bills vs. Jets Fantasy Pick’em
Season Fantasy Pick’em Record: 16-6
Breece Hall more than 86.5 rushing + receiving yards (1.70x) – Sleeper Fantasy
We have lost the last two plays, which brings our record to 16-6 on the season. It’s still great, but we want excellence you know? Let’s try to bounce back on Monday night. Breece Hall has struggled in each of the last 2 games but draws a get-right matchup against the Bills. They have allowed 5.2 yards per carry and have given up more receiving yards to running backs than any team in the NFL. I prefer the rushing + receiving prop over them individually, as we can expect Hall to be involved regardless of the game script. If they are ahead, he’ll get more carries. If they are behind, he’ll get more targets.
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Image Credit: Getty Images
Stats credit: Fantasy Points Data and ProFootballFocus