The NFL Grind Down: Saturday Night Football - Colts vs. Texans
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In this article, we will take a look at the top DraftKings and FanDuel picks for Colts vs. Texans, go over potential sleepers, and even take a look at some player props that we can target on fantasy pick’em sites like Sleeper Fantasy ahead of this Saturday Night Football matchup.
NFL DFS Showdown DraftKings Picks and Sleepers — Colts vs. Texans
The NFL schedule worked out perfectly for this Week 18 matchup. It’s very simple — the winner of this game will make the playoffs and the loser will be watching the postseason from the comfort of their own homes. We rarely see a game where both teams are in win-or-go-home situations. The Texans aren’t quite at full strength, but they do have CJ Stroud back in the lineup. The Colts have been very hit-or-miss this season and are only 4-4 at home this season. This game could go either way, which is why we have a 1-point spread. The total is currently set at 47.5 points.
Key Injuries
Zack Moss – Questionable (full practice)
Tank Dell – Out
Noah Brown – Out
Robert Woods – Questionable (no practice)
Indianapolis Colts Preview
It’s funny how time works. The NFL season flies by every year, yet it feels like it has been forever since Anthony Richardson was under center for the Colts. Gardner Minshew has filled in admirably and has a chance to lead this team to the playoffs. Outside of an outlier against the Browns, he hasn’t shown much upside this season. He’s been held to 16 fantasy points or fewer in 7 of his last 9 games. The lack of a ceiling takes him out of consideration for MVP and CPT, at least on my end. As far as the matchup goes, this is one of the best pass-funnel spots possible. The Texans are 2nd in DVOA against the run and 23rd in DVOA against the pass. I plan to have a lot of Minshew but only at the FLEX spot.
Michael Pittman has been the go-to receiver for Minshew all season. He’s been quiet over the last 2 games, but one was against the Raiders, and in the other, he left early due to that nasty hit against the Steelers. Before that, he had seen double-digit targets in 4 straight games. If the Colts aren’t able to run the ball, it’s going to be a lot of Pittman, who boasts a 28% target share and a 32% air yards share on the season. Josh Downs is the WR2 in this offense, but he hasn’t reached double-digit fantasy points since Week 8 against the Saints. The matchup is solid, but Downs hasn’t offered much of a floor or ceiling this season.
I’m not saying we can’t play Downs, but shouldn’t we have more interest in Alec Pierce at this point? He’s been a little more volatile, but that’s not always a negative when it comes to tournaments. He has caught a touchdown in 2 of his last 5 games and has seen at least 5 targets in 3 of his last 5 games. The Colts love tight ends so much that they use three on a weekly basis. Kylen Granson is technically the TE1, but there’s no guarantee that he’ll get more targets than Mo Alie-Cox or Will Mallory. Any of the three could find their way onto the optimal lineup with a touchdown, and for what it’s worth, the Texans have allowed the 4th-most fantasy points to tight ends this season.
Jonathan Taylor is going to be very popular on this slate. Over the last 5 games, he has touch totals of 22, 19, 15, 24, and 23. I certainly like Taylor’s expected volume, but there are paths to failure here. For starters, the Texans have one of the best run defenses in the NFL. This wouldn’t be a big issue if Taylor was heavily involved in the passing game, but he has only caught 2 out of 3 targets in the last 4 games combined. On top of that, Zack Moss practiced in full this week and is expected to be active. Taylor should get most of the work here and is a strong play on paper, but I’m personally not locking him into all of my lineups. Moss is a tad too pricey for my liking, especially in this matchup.
The Colts are playing at home and facing a rookie quarterback in a pressure-packed game. There are certainly paths for them to have a nice game here. With that said, they are 24th in pressure rate on the season. Kicker Matt Gay has scored double-digit fantasy points in 4 of his last 6 games and is a strong option in all formats.
Houston Texans Preview
CJ Stroud has been incredible in his rookie season. The Texans were a much different offense without him, but he was able to return last week against the Titans. He didn’t have a huge fantasy outing but wasn’t needed to do much in a blowout win. Nobody thought the Texans had a chance to make the playoffs this season, yet they are only one win away. This is about as mediocre of a matchup as you will find for a quarterback, as the Colts are 14th in DVOA against the pass and 15th in fantasy points allowed to the position. Stroud offers plenty of upside and deserves consideration at MVP and CPT.
The Texans are shorthanded when it comes to their wideouts. Tank Dell has been out for quite a while, Noah Brown has been ruled out of this game, and Robert Woods has yet to practice this week. If he’s unable to suit up, John Metchie and Xavier Hutchinson will round out the wide receiver room. Ultimately, we can expect most of the wide receiver targets to be directed at Nico Collins. He was well on his way to a big game last week before the Texans leaned heavily on the run given their big lead. The Colts are close to the league average in fantasy points allowed to wide receivers.
If Woods can suit up, he’ll run a lot of his routes from the slot. We know the Colts like to play deep safeties, which generally opens things up underneath. Metchie and Hutchinson already grade out as elite value plays on DraftKings, so that will only improve if Woods is eventually ruled out. Dalton Schultz has been quiet since returning to the lineup, but he should see an increased target share with the injuries to the receivers. Additionally, he draws the best matchup of the bunch. On the season, the Colts have allowed the 9th-most fantasy points to tight ends. Brevin Jordan might get some run as well, but he’s not as cheap as Metchie or Hutchinson.
Game log watchers will see that Dameon Pierce had 9 touches last week, but we shouldn’t put any stock into those numbers. Most of those touches came in the second half when the game was well in hand. Devin Singletary will be the feature back in this one. His volume has been up and down, but running lanes should open up now that Stroud is under center. He draws an elite matchup too, as the Colts are 24th in DVOA against the run and 30th in fantasy points allowed to running backs. He’s a sneaky option at MVP and CPT. I’ll take my chances with a fade of Pierce.
The Texans are 10th in both pressure rate and sacks per game this season. We’ve also seen Minshew make some questionable decisions at times. I’m not forcing this defense into my lineups, but they are viable. Kicker Ka’imi Fairbairn has had some big outings this season and is viable in all formats.
Lineup Construction Thoughts
One of the biggest decision points of the slate is what to do with Jonathan Taylor. If you can stomach a fade, you will automatically be differentiated from the field (especially in small-field contests) and can essentially do whatever you want with the rest of your lineup. On DraftKings, there are a lot of values due to the injuries in Houston’s wide receiver room. While any game could turn into a blowout, I expect this one to stay competitive throughout. For that reason, I won’t be using full onslaughts. I plan to be overweight on both kickers, especially since the game is in a dome.
Colts-Texans DFS Salaries & Projections
| Player | Team | Pos | Proj | DK Sal | CPT Sal | DK/$ | FD Sal | FD/$ |
|---|---|---|---|---|---|---|---|---|
| C.J. Stroud | HOU | QB | 20.34 | $11,200 | $16,800 | 1.82 | $15,000 | 1.36 |
| Nico Collins | HOU | WR | 17.59 | $10,400 | $15,600 | 1.69 | $13,500 | 1.30 |
| Michael Pittman | IND | WR | 17.55 | $10,200 | $15,300 | 1.72 | $13,000 | 1.35 |
| Gardner Minshew | IND | QB | 16.80 | $9,600 | $14,400 | 1.75 | $12,500 | 1.34 |
| Jonathan Taylor | IND | RB | 16.27 | $10,000 | $15,000 | 1.63 | $15,500 | 1.05 |
| Devin Singletary | HOU | RB | 15.69 | $8,400 | $12,600 | 1.87 | $12,000 | 1.31 |
| Dalton Schultz | HOU | TE | 11.74 | $5,800 | $8,700 | 2.02 | $10,000 | 1.17 |
| Josh Downs | IND | WR | 9.06 | $6,600 | $9,900 | 1.37 | $10,500 | 0.86 |
| Matt Gay | IND | K | 8.79 | $4,800 | $7,200 | 1.83 | $9,000 | 0.98 |
| Ka’imi Fairbairn | HOU | K | 7.96 | $5,000 | $7,500 | 1.59 | $9,000 | 0.88 |
| Robert Woods | HOU | WR | 7.37 | $5,400 | $8,100 | 1.36 | $7,500 | 0.98 |
| Alec Pierce | IND | WR | 6.89 | $6,200 | $9,300 | 1.11 | $8,000 | 0.86 |
| Zack Moss | IND | RB | 6.51 | $6,400 | $9,600 | 1.02 | $9,500 | 0.69 |
| Colts | IND | DST | 6.49 | $3,800 | $5,700 | 1.71 | $8,500 | 0.76 |
| Kylen Granson | IND | TE | 6.46 | $4,000 | $6,000 | 1.62 | $6,000 | 1.08 |
| Texans | HOU | DST | 6.22 | $4,200 | $6,300 | 1.48 | $8,500 | 0.73 |
| John Metchie | HOU | WR | 5.42 | $1,000 | $1,500 | 5.42 | $7,000 | 0.77 |
| Xavier Hutchinson | HOU | WR | 5.31 | $800 | $1,200 | 6.64 | $6,500 | 0.82 |
| Dameon Pierce | HOU | RB | 4.45 | $3,200 | $4,800 | 1.39 | $8,000 | 0.56 |
| Brevin Jordan | HOU | TE | 3.97 | $3,000 | $4,500 | 1.32 | $6,500 | 0.61 |
| Mo Alie-Cox | IND | TE | 2.66 | $1,200 | $1,800 | 2.22 | $6,000 | 0.44 |
| Will Mallory | IND | TE | 2.62 | $2,000 | $3,000 | 1.31 | $7,000 | 0.37 |
| Dare Ogunbowale | HOU | RB | 1.98 | $200 | $300 | 9.90 | $5,500 | 0.36 |
Fantasy Sleepers
Alec Pierce: $6,200 DK / $8,000 FD
There are a lot of solid plays to spend up on the slate (Stroud, Collins, Singletary, Minshew, Taylor, Pittman) and a lot of values. The stars and scrubs build will be very popular, which means the mid-range options are likely going to fly under the radar. With Pierce technically being the WR3 and being priced at a premium, I have to assume his ownership is going to be low. He’s volatile and only worth a look in tournaments, but he’s shown a higher ceiling than Downs, and the Texans have a pass-funnel defense.
Colts vs. Texans Player Pick’em
Season record: 34-19
31-11 over the last 42 games
Devin Singletary more than 81.5 rushing + receiving yards (1.71x) – Sleeper
We are coming off of back-to-back losses in the pick’em streets, so let’s try to get back on track on Saturday night. As noted above, I am not putting any stock into the fact that Dameon Pierce got a decent amount of work last week. I expect the Texans to use Singletary as a feature back in this one. He has the best matchup of any player in the game, as the Colts have been one of the worst run defenses in the NFL. I prefer the rushing + receiving number just in case the Texans fall behind early.
Image Credit: Getty Images