The NFL DFS Grind Down: Sunday Morning Football - Jaguars vs. Bears
In this article, we will take a look at the top DraftKings and FanDuel picks for the Jaguars vs. Bears, go over potential NFL DFS sleepers, and even take a look at some picks we can target on Fantasy Pick’em sites like Sleeper Fantasy ahead of this Sunday Morning Football matchup. As always, you should be checking the NFL weather page each week to see if any games will be impacted by wind or rain.
NFL DFS Showdown DraftKings Picks and Sleepers — Jaguars vs. Bears
Is anyone excited to wake up for a London game between the Jaguars and Bears early Sunday morning? I’m a Jaguars fan, and my good friend is a Bears fan. We are even having a tough time getting excited about this one. However, this is where fantasy football comes in clutch. This is surprisingly shaping up to be a fun Showdown slate. The game features a 1-point spread and a 44.5-point total.
Key Injuries
Travis Etienne – Questionable [Limited Practice]
Evan Engram – Questionable [Limited Practice]
Gabe Davis – Questionable [Limited Practice]
Jacksonville Jaguars Preview
The Jaguars have struggled this season, but they are coming off a win and now have 2 games in their “home away from home.” They have played more games in London than any team in NFL history, so the travel should be less of an issue for them than it is for the Bears. After failing to throw for more than 220 yards in any of the first 4 games of the season, Trevor Lawrence threw for 371 yards and 2 touchdowns against the Colts last week. While he’s a strong target for this Showdown slate, I prefer using him at FLEX instead of Captain. He doesn’t offer rushing upside and has a tough draw against the Bears, who are 4th or better in PFF’s grades against the pass, EPA against the pass, and fantasy points allowed to quarterbacks this season.
Let’s take a look at the usage of Jacksonville’s wideouts so far this season:
Brian Thomas: 76% route percentage, 21% target rate, 29% air yards share
Christian Kirk: 78% route percentage, 20% target rate, 29% air yards share
Gabe Davis: 79% route percentage, 15% target rate, 22% air yards share
Evan Engram: 68% route percentage, 19% target rate, 16% air yards share
Evan Engram has missed the last 2 games with a hamstring injury and is listed as questionable. Gabe Davis is dealing with a knee injury and is listed as questionable. We’ll have to keep an eye on both wideouts, but they have been able to log limited practices this week. If Engram is out, Brenton Strange will be the TE1 in Jacksonville once again. He hasn’t been a downfield threat but has caught 2 touchdowns in the last 3 games.
Brian Thomas has been one of the most effective wide receivers in the NFL this season. It’s hard not to like his usage, but he does have a tough draw against the Bears, who have allowed the 7th-fewest fantasy points to wide receivers this season. My interest in Christian Kirk will hinge on the availability of Engram. In the 3 games Engram has missed, Kirk has caught 19-of-26 targets for 228 yards and a touchdown.
Travis Etienne has been dealing with a shoulder injury, but he continues to play through it. He’s still a good pass-catching back, but Tank Bigsby has been much more efficient on the ground. He has averaged 8.0 yards per carry and is the 4th-highest-graded running back this season. The best way to move the ball on the Bears has been on the ground, but there’s very little price difference between Etienne and Bigsby.
The Jaguars defense has been nothing short of awful, but they are facing a rookie quarterback who is flying across the pond for his first start in London. This defense isn’t a priority, but I would keep them in my player pool if building 10+ lineups (I typically build 1-2 lineups for Showdown). Kicker Cam Little is affordable and a decent value option.
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Chicago Bears Preview
It wasn’t the start the Bears had in mind when they drafted Caleb Williams with the 1st overall pick, but the Bears have turned it around over the last 2 weeks with wins over the Rams and Panthers. Perhaps we shouldn’t give them too much credit since both games were at home against bad opponents, but they have a good chance of climbing back to .500 with a win this week. This is a dream matchup for Williams on paper, as the Jaguars are 25th in PFF’s pass rush grades, 32nd in EPA against the pass, and 32nd in fantasy points allowed to quarterbacks. With Williams having a little rushing upside, he’s on my radar at MVP and Captain.
Let’s take a look at the usage of Chicago’s wideouts in Weeks 1, 4, and 5 (when everyone was healthy):
DJ Moore: 88% route percentage, 27% target rate, 42% air yards share
Keenan Allen: 77% route percentage, 21% target rate, 25% air yards share
Rome Odunze: 75% route percentage, 15% target rate, 19% air yards share
Cole Kmet: 53% route percentage, 10% target rate, 9% air yards share
Even when Keenan Allen has been on the field, DJ Moore has been the clear WR1 for the Bears this season. In those 3 games, he has seen a 27% target share and a 42% air yards share. Allen isn’t too far behind with a 21% target share and a 25% air yards share. Rome Odunze has still had a fairly large role and will likely garner the least amount of ownership of the three. It’s an elite matchup, as Jacksonville has allowed the 2nd-most fantasy points to wide receivers this season. I don’t have a strong take on Cole Kmet. It’s a good matchup, and he has averaged 4.5 targets over the last 3 games, but he’s still not running a ton of routes.
D’Andre Swift averaged less than 2.0 yards per carry in the first three games of the season but put up 29 and 20 fantasy points (DK scoring) in the last 2 games. Again, both of those games were at home against terrible defenses, but it’s at least encouraging to see the production. The Jaguars have been decent against the run (12th in EPA) but have allowed the 4th-most fantasy points to running backs. With a big role in the passing game, Swift should be heavily involved regardless of the game script. Roschon Johnson has quietly seen 25 carries over the last 3 games and has scored 3 touchdowns during that stretch. If you think the Bears run away with this game, pairing Swift with Johnson isn’t the craziest strategy I’ve seen.
The Bears D/ST is firmly in play on this slate. They have one of the best pass rushes in the NFL, and the Jaguars have struggled offensively this season. Kicker Cairo Santos might be my favorite value play on the slate, as I expect Chicago to move the ball with ease. With a rookie quarterback overseas, I could see them struggling in the red zone.
Lineup Construction Thoughts
My first lineup construction thought is that both quarterbacks are too cheap on DraftKings. We typically see quarterbacks priced above $10,000, but they are both below $9,000. I typically like to roster both quarterbacks on Showdown slates, and with the cheap salaries, that will be the case again on Sunday morning. I have a hard time seeing the Jaguars blowing out the Bears, but I could see the Bears running away with this game. If building an onslaught, I prefer stacking Chicago’s side.
Jaguars vs. Bears DFS Salaries & Projections
| Player | Team | Pos | Proj | DK Sal | CPT Sal | DK/$ | FD Sal | FD/$ |
|---|---|---|---|---|---|---|---|---|
| Trevor Lawrence | JAX | QB | 18.92 | $8,600 | $12,900 | 2.20 | $15,000 | 1.26 |
| Caleb Williams | CHI | QB | 18.27 | $8,800 | $13,200 | 2.08 | $15,500 | 1.18 |
| Travis Etienne | JAX | RB | 15.29 | $7,400 | $11,100 | 2.07 | $13,500 | 1.13 |
| D’Andre Swift | CHI | RB | 15.25 | $9,200 | $13,800 | 1.66 | $13,000 | 1.17 |
| D.J. Moore | CHI | WR | 14.82 | $9,800 | $14,700 | 1.51 | $12,500 | 1.19 |
| Brian Thomas | JAX | WR | 13.13 | $9,400 | $14,100 | 1.40 | $12,000 | 1.09 |
| Keenan Allen | CHI | WR | 12.19 | $7,600 | $11,400 | 1.60 | $9,500 | 1.28 |
| Christian Kirk | JAX | WR | 12.13 | $8,400 | $12,600 | 1.44 | $11,000 | 1.10 |
| Evan Engram | JAX | TE | 10.64 | $5,800 | $8,700 | 1.83 | $8,000 | 1.33 |
| Rome Odunze | CHI | WR | 9.71 | $7,200 | $10,800 | 1.35 | $9,000 | 1.08 |
| Cole Kmet | CHI | TE | 8.92 | $6,600 | $9,900 | 1.35 | $7,500 | 1.19 |
| Gabriel Davis | JAX | WR | 8.40 | $4,400 | $6,600 | 1.91 | $9,500 | 0.88 |
| Cam Little | JAX | K | 7.58 | $4,800 | $7,200 | 1.58 | $8,000 | 0.95 |
| Cairo Santos | CHI | K | 7.36 | $5,000 | $7,500 | 1.47 | $8,500 | 0.87 |
| Tank Bigsby | JAX | RB | 7.23 | $7,000 | $10,500 | 1.03 | $10,000 | 0.72 |
| Jaguars | JAX | DST | 6.84 | $3,600 | $5,400 | 1.90 | $8,500 | 0.80 |
| Roschon Johnson | CHI | RB | 6.19 | $5,200 | $7,800 | 1.19 | $10,500 | 0.59 |
| Bears | CHI | DST | 5.83 | $4,000 | $6,000 | 1.46 | $9,000 | 0.65 |
| D’Ernest Johnson | JAX | RB | 2.59 | $2,800 | $4,200 | 0.93 | $6,000 | 0.43 |
| Brenton Strange | JAX | TE | 1.96 | $3,200 | $4,800 | 0.61 | $7,500 | 0.26 |
| Gerald Everett | CHI | TE | 1.82 | $1,600 | $2,400 | 1.14 | $6,000 | 0.30 |
| Parker Washington | JAX | WR | 1.78 | $1,000 | $1,500 | 1.78 | $7,000 | 0.25 |
| Khalil Herbert | CHI | RB | 1.20 | $2,400 | $3,600 | 0.50 | $7,000 | 0.17 |
Fantasy Sleepers
Rome Odunze: $7,200 DK / $9,000 FD
Rome Odunze has only scored double-digit fantasy points one time this season and it came in a game where Keenan Allen was inactive. He’s currently projected for less ownership than both Allen and DJ Moore. It’s easy to see why given the usage of these three receivers, but Odunze still has solid target and air yads shares. I like all of the wideouts this week against the Jaguars, who are 32nd in EPA against the pass and 31st in fantasy points allowed to running backs.
Jaguars vs. Bears Fantasy Pick’em
Season Fantasy Pick’em Record: 15-4
Cairo Santos more than 1.5 field goals made (1.67x) – Sleeper Fantasy
In case I wasn’t clear in the breakdown above, the Jaguars defense has been putrid this season. They are statistically the worst defense in the NFL against the pass and are mediocre against the run. They have allowed just under 400 yards per game to their opponents, which is the 2nd-worst mark in the league. The Bears should have no problem moving the ball up and down the field, but they have a rookie quarterback traveling across the pond to a new environment. I could see them struggling to score touchdowns on Sunday morning. I think they’ll have to settle for at least a couple of field goals in this one.
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Image Credit: Getty Images
Stats credit: Fantasy Points Data and ProFootballFocus