The NFL Grind Down: Monday Night Football - Jets vs. Niners
In this article, we will take a look at the top DraftKings and FanDuel picks for Jets vs. Niners, go over potential NFL DFS sleepers, and even take a look at some picks that we can target on fantasy pick’em sites like Sleeper Fantasy ahead of this Monday Night Football matchup. To build the best lineups possible, be sure to check out LineupHQ, which is my favorite DFS optimizer in the industry.
NFL DFS Showdown DraftKings Picks and Sleepers — Jets vs. Niners
We are red-hot with our fantasy pick’em selections. We’ve had three primetime games this season and are a perfect 3-0. We’ll look to keep it going on Monday night in a game that has many potential outcomes. The Niners are looking to return to the Super Bowl after losing to the Chiefs (again), while the Jets are hoping to stay healthy enough to realize their potential with Aaron Rodgers under center. This Jets team is one that I could see winning anywhere from 5 to 12 games. It all depends on health, how much gas Rodgers has in the tank, and the chemistry within the locker room. This game features a 3.5-point spread and a 43.5-point total.
Key Injuries
Christian McCaffrey – Probable
Elijah Mitchell – Out
San Francisco 49ers Preview
The Niners cruised through last year’s regular season (12-5) but were lucky to win their first two playoff games against the Packers and Lions. They were looking for revenge against the Chiefs but fell short once again and lost in overtime. They are hoping to make it back to the big dance this season. They still have an elite head coach, an elite defense, the best running back in the NFL, one of the best receiving corps in the NFL, and a quarterback who knows how to limit mistakes. They are the second odds-on favorites to win the Super Bowl.
Isn’t it wild how quickly perception can change in sports? Brock Purdy was the clear favorite to win the MVP last season before that primetime game against the Ravens. His play dipped a bit the rest of the season, and then many were calling for a change of quarterback this offseason. I’ve never been a Purdy truther, but I certainly think he’s a talented quarterback who has earned his position on the Niners. Quarterbacks are always viable on Showdown slates, but this is far from an exploitable matchup. Despite being on the field a ton last season, the Jets defense was 4th in DVOA against the pass and 5th in pressure rate.
Niners fans breathed a sigh of relief when Brandon Aiyuk signed his big extension two weeks ago. His conditioning is a question mark for Week 1, but we haven’t seen any reports about him being limited in the opener. He’ll have his hands full with outside cornerbacks Sauce Gardner and Michael Carter, who were both 10 top last season according to Pro Football Focus. Deebo Samuel moves all over the formation and tends to get a few carries per game as well. Given the matchup and the unknown conditioning for Aiyuk, I’m firmly on Team Deebo for DFS. We’ll have to wait and see how ownership projections shake out, but I have a feeling the field is going to agree with me.
With 1st-rounder Ricky Pearsall on injured reserve to start the season, Jauan Jennings doesn’t have much competition for snaps in 3-receiver sets. He’s not a player to get super excited about though, as he was only able to muster up double-digit fantasy points in 2 of 13 regular season games in 2023. Ronnie Bell should see a handful of snaps as well and is only $200 on DraftKings. There’s a good chance he’ll put up a goose egg, but he only needs 1 catch to pay off his salary. For how good the Jets’ pass defense was last season, they allowed the 12th-most fantasy points to tight ends. When targeting San Fran’s passing game, I will be leaning on Samuel and George Kittle.
Christian McCaffrey has been dealing with a calf and an Achilles injury but is confident that he’ll be able to suit up on Monday night. Given how important he is to the team and the fact that he’s nursing two different injuries, the Niners would be smart to give him a somewhat limited workload. Now, who knows what that will end up being if this game is competitive. Even if CMC only sees 15 touches, there’s a good chance he’ll still find his way onto the optimal lineup. Jordan Mason could have an expanded role on Monday night, especially given the efficiency that he has shown on the ground. I don’t mind the idea of pairing the two together, as it’s easier to run than pass on the Jets.
I have been fading the defenses in each of the first three Showdown slates, but that ends tonight. This game features two of the best defenses in the NFL. It’s a good spot for the Niners as home favorites, especially since Aaron Rodgers has only played a handful of downs over the last couple of years. I also love the spot for Jake Moody. The Niners should still be able to move the ball in this game, but they could struggle to find the end zone consistently against this defense.
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New York Jets Preview
The Jets could be a fun team to watch this season if they can have a little more luck on the health front. Everyone is curious to see what Aaron Rodgers can offer as a 40-year-old quarterback coming off an Achilles injury. The Jets have a win total of 9.5, which is currently juiced to the over, so they are very much in the playoff mix in the AFC. While I always say quarterbacks are viable on Showdown slates, I don’t view Rodgers as a must-play here. This is a brutal matchup on the road, and it’s not like the Jets want to throw the ball a ton this season, especially in the first few games. I have as much interest in San Francisco’s defense as I do in Rodgers.
Based on what we saw on Hard Knocks, Rodgers and Garrett Wilson seem to have a great connection. While we never got to see that chemistry develop on the field, Wilson should be the clear WR1 for Rodgers this season. The Niners’ secondary is missing some key pieces entering the season, so this could be a good spot for Wilson in DFS. The Jets made a big move bringing in Mike Williams this offseason, but he’s expected to be limited in the early part of the season. He’s not exactly cheap, which does limit his appeal. The positives are that he’s capable of making big plays and shouldn’t garner much ownership.
We know Allen Lazard is only on the team because of Rodgers, so Rodgers likely won’t have an issue targeting him 5+ times each game, especially with Williams expected to be on a pitch count. Lazard is only $2,000 on DraftKings and projects as one of the top point-per-dollar plays on the board. Xavier Gipson and Malachi Corley could see a handful of snaps as well, but they are best suited as large-field tournament targets. Tyler Conklin is still the TE1 for the Jets. He’s cheap enough that he’s viable as a lineup filler but will likely need a touchdown to be a real difference-maker in tournaments.
It’s pretty amazing what Breece Hall was able to do last season given his quarterback play and the fact that the Jets were consistently playing with a deficit. He was one of the top picks in season-long drafts and should benefit from the Jets beefing up their offensive line. While the Niners allowed the 4th-fewest fantasy points to running backs last season, they were ranked 15th in DVOA against the run and 26th in EPA against the run. Hall is a strong option in all formats, as he’s going to have a big role regardless of the game script. Braelon Allen will serve as his backup to start the season.
Even though Brock Purdy is one of the best at avoiding mistakes, the Jets have one of the best defenses in the NFL. I don’t like them as much as the Niners, but they are still viable. The same can be said for Greg Zuerlein. He’s viable, but I prefer the other kicker in this game.
Lineup Construction Thoughts
This is the first primetime slate of the season where I don’t mind building some Niners onslaught stacks. I could see most of the Jets’ production coming through Breece Hall or Garrett Wilson. For the Niners, they tend to have a concentrated and balanced attack. This is also a slate where their kicker and their defense are firmly in play.
Niners vs. Jets DFS Salaries & Projections
| Player | Team | Pos | Proj | DK Sal | CPT Sal | DK/$ | FD Sal | FD/$ |
|---|---|---|---|---|---|---|---|---|
| Christian McCaffrey | SF | RB | 23.86 | $11,600 | $17,400 | 2.06 | $17,500 | 1.36 |
| Breece Hall | NYJ | RB | 18.69 | $10,200 | $15,300 | 1.83 | $15,000 | 1.25 |
| Garrett Wilson | NYJ | WR | 18.12 | $9,800 | $14,700 | 1.85 | $12,500 | 1.45 |
| Brock Purdy | SF | QB | 17.15 | $9,200 | $13,800 | 1.86 | $14,500 | 1.18 |
| Aaron Rodgers | NYJ | QB | 15.65 | $9,000 | $13,500 | 1.74 | $14,000 | 1.12 |
| Deebo Samuel | SF | WR | 14.14 | $9,600 | $14,400 | 1.47 | $11,500 | 1.23 |
| Brandon Aiyuk | SF | WR | 12.71 | $8,400 | $12,600 | 1.51 | $10,000 | 1.27 |
| George Kittle | SF | TE | 10.93 | $7,400 | $11,100 | 1.48 | $11,000 | 0.99 |
| Tyler Conklin | NYJ | TE | 7.82 | $3,600 | $5,400 | 2.17 | $8,000 | 0.98 |
| 49ers | SF | DST | 6.73 | $5,200 | $7,800 | 1.29 | $9,500 | 0.71 |
| Jake Moody | SF | K | 6.70 | $4,800 | $7,200 | 1.40 | $8,500 | 0.79 |
| Mike Williams | NYJ | WR | 6.66 | $6,600 | $9,900 | 1.01 | $9,000 | 0.74 |
| Greg Zuerlein | NYJ | K | 6.39 | $4,400 | $6,600 | 1.45 | $8,500 | 0.75 |
| Jets | NYJ | DST | 5.98 | $3,200 | $4,800 | 1.87 | $9,000 | 0.66 |
| Jauan Jennings | SF | WR | 5.64 | $4,000 | $6,000 | 1.41 | $8,000 | 0.71 |
| Allen Lazard | NYJ | WR | 5.25 | $2,000 | $3,000 | 2.63 | $7,000 | 0.75 |
| Jordan Mason | SF | RB | 4.68 | $3,000 | $4,500 | 1.56 | $7,500 | 0.62 |
| Braelon Allen | NYJ | RB | 4.28 | $2,800 | $4,200 | 1.53 | $7,000 | 0.61 |
| Xavier Gipson | NYJ | WR | 3.28 | $2,400 | $3,600 | 1.37 | $7,500 | 0.44 |
| Jeremy Ruckert | NYJ | TE | 3.21 | $1,200 | $1,800 | 2.68 | $6,000 | 0.54 |
| Ronnie Bell | SF | WR | 2.47 | $200 | $300 | 12.35 | $6,500 | 0.38 |
| Malachi Corley | NYJ | WR | 1.34 | $1,600 | $2,400 | 0.84 | $6,500 | 0.21 |
Fantasy Sleepers
Niners D/ST: $5,200 DK / $9,500 FD
Given the offensive outbursts we have seen in the first three primetime games this season, the field might be tired of targeting defenses. The Niners do have some injuries in their secondary, but they still have an elite pass rush, they are playing as home favorites, and we really don’t know what to expect from Aaron Rodgers.
Niners vs. Jets Fantasy Pick’em
Season Fantasy Pick’em Record: 3-0
Jake Moody more than 1.5 field goals made (1.63x) – Sleeper Fantasy
I love targeting kickers who play on good offenses, play on teams that are favored, and are facing defenses that can stop opponents in the red zone. Even though this game has a low total, it’s hard to imagine the Jets shutting down a Kyle Shanahan offense. I expect the Niners to move the ball well, but they could struggle when they get into scoring position.
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