The NFL Grind Down: Saturday Night Football - Niners vs. Packers
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In this article, we will take a look at the top DraftKings and FanDuel picks for Niners vs. Packers, go over potential sleepers, and even take a look at some player props that we can target on fantasy pick’em sites like Sleeper Fantasy ahead of this Saturday Night Football matchup.
NFL DFS Showdown DraftKings Picks and Sleepers — Niners vs. Packers
A trip to the NFC Championship game is on the line in this one. The Niners secured a first-round bye by having the best record in the conference, while the Packers put together a tremendous finish to the season to sneak into the playoffs. Then they went into Dallas and put a whooping on the Cowboys. Both of these teams should have all their key players active for this game, and they are no strangers to squaring off in the playoffs. The Niners are listed as 9.5-point favorites, and the game features a total of 50.5 points.
Key Injuries
AJ Dillon – Questionable
San Francisco 49ers Preview
Brock Purdy isn’t going to win the MVP due to a poor performance against the Ravens in primetime, but he still put together a tremendous season. Many will credit the weapons that he has at his disposal, but he’s a perfect fit for this offense. He’s shown an extremely high floor for DFS, as he’s topped 24 fantasy points in 6 of his last 9 games. He draws an exploitable matchup against the Packers, who are 16th in sacks per game and 26th in DVOA against the pass. I generally look to avoid quarterbacks that don’t run at MVP and CPT, but we could see Purdy spread the ball around and still score 25+ fantasy points.
Christian McCaffrey is the easiest click at both MVP and CPT. He has scored 21 touchdowns in 16 games this season and is currently -275 to score against the Packers. During the regular season, Green Bay was 26th in DVOA against the run and 20th in fantasy points allowed to running backs. He’s a good bet for 15+ carries and 5+ receptions in this one. We know running backs tend to play well as home favorites, and the Niners are 9.5-point favorites in this one.
Trying to pick between Deebo Samuel and Brandon Aiyuk this season is the stuff that nightmares are made of. The Niners look for creative ways to get Samuel the ball (screens, hand-offs, etc.), while Aiyuk is a traditional receiver. Jaire Alexander is questionable for this game, but I’m not overly concerned about the matchup for Aiyuk if Alexander is active. Ultimately, we have to expect one of these two receivers to have a nice game. I plan to build multiple lineups for this showdown slate to get exposure to both. Personally, I am going to play them in separate lineups (create a group with a min of one and a max of two).
Jauan Jennings is the clear WR3 on the Niners, but he mostly is on the field to run wind sprints. He’s only seen more than 2 targets one time in the last 7 games. If he was priced below $1,000 on DraftKings, he would be a lot more appealing. George Kittle is going to be popular on the 4-game DraftKings slate and the 2-game FanDuel slate, but he could fly under the radar for this showdown slate. The Packers were 15th in fantasy points allowed to tight ends during the regular season but gave up a massive fantasy outing to Jake Ferguson in the Wild Card round.
The Packers have been on a roll offensively, but they haven’t faced many defenses as talented as the Niners. If San Francisco can build a lead, they can force Green Bay into airing it out. A pass-heavy game is always good for the opposing defense. Kicker Jake Moody is viable in all formats.
Green Bay Packers Preview
One of the leaks in my NFL DFS play this season has been fading Jordan Love every week. He tends to look like a decent play on paper, but to my detriment, he never seems to make the final cut on my rosters. He has now scored at least 22 fantasy points in 4 straight games and 6 of his last 9 outings. This is one of his toughest matchups to date, but we did see him torch the Cowboys last week. The positives are that he should have all of his weapons available and that the Packers might be forced to air it out if they fall behind early.
We’ll have to wait and see if AJ Dillon can suit up for this game, but I’m not sure it matters much. Aaron Jones has racked up at least 21 touches and at least 130 yards from scrimmage in each of the last 4 games. He’s a big reason why they’ve been able to win their last 4 games. He hasn’t been as involved in the passing game as usual, but we know that’s one of his biggest strengths. If the Packers fall behind early, he could see a lot of dump-offs from Love. Regardless of the game script, Jones should be heavily involved, which makes him a strong option in all formats.
If you thought trying to pick between Deebo and Aiyuk was tough, wait until you try to pick between all of these Packers wideouts. Here’s a breakdown of the usage with all of the wide receivers healthy last week against the Cowboys:
Wide Receivers
- Romeo Doubs: 67% of routes, 29% target share, 42% air yards share
- Dontayvion Wicks: 52% of routes, 10% target share, 12% air yards share
- Jayden Reed: 48% of routes, 14% target share, 9% air yards share
- Christian Watson: 29% of routes, 5% target share, 2% air yards share
- Bo Melton: 29% of routes, 10% target share, 20% air yards share
Tight Ends
- Tucker Kraft: 57% of routes, 14% target share, 3% air yards share
- Luke Musgrave: 24% of routes, 14% target share, 13% air yards share
Now, there’s no guarantee that those numbers will be sticky week-over-week. However, it was interesting to see Reed third in route participation. With Watson practicing in full and being taken off the injury report, I am expecting him to play more snaps. For tournaments, he’s my favorite of the bunch. Melton is the cheapest of the five, which makes him an intriguing value on DraftKings ($2,200). I’m not sure what to make of the usage numbers for Kraft and Musgrave. Kraft was on the field a lot more, but Musgrave matched him in targets and caught that long touchdown. The two project very similarly in this spot. As far as the Niners’ defense is concerned, they are 12th and 15th in fantasy points allowed to wide receivers and tight ends.
I wanted no part of the Packers’ defense last week against the Cowboys, and naturally, they came up with 4 sacks, 2 interceptions, and a touchdown. I have a hard time seeing them stop the Niners this weekend, so I will take my chances with another fade. I’m also fine with being underweight on kicker Anders Carlson, as the Packers could be forced to go for touchdowns if they find themselves in a hole early.
Lineup Construction Thoughts
With how good the Niners’ offense is and with how concentrated it is, the Niners onslaught builds are awfully enticing. You can try to get three or four of the superstar players on the Niners and then bring it back with Jones or one of the Packers’ wideouts. In my Niners onslaught lineups, I will be mixing and matching Moody and the defense. As noted above, I am also going to make a rule in LineupHQ where I use a max of one when it comes to Deebo and Aiyuk.
Niners-Packers DFS Salaries & Projections
| Player | Team | Pos | Proj | DK Sal | CPT Sal | DK/$ | FD Sal | FD/$ |
|---|---|---|---|---|---|---|---|---|
| Christian McCaffrey | SF | RB | 27.95 | $12,200 | $18,300 | 2.29 | $17,500 | 1.60 |
| Brock Purdy | SF | QB | 20.62 | $10,000 | $15,000 | 2.06 | $14,500 | 1.42 |
| Jordan Love | GB | QB | 16.53 | $9,200 | $13,800 | 1.80 | $15,000 | 1.10 |
| Aaron Jones | GB | RB | 16.51 | $9,400 | $14,100 | 1.76 | $12,500 | 1.32 |
| Brandon Aiyuk | SF | WR | 15.94 | $9,600 | $14,400 | 1.66 | $12,000 | 1.33 |
| Deebo Samuel | SF | WR | 15.87 | $10,400 | $15,600 | 1.53 | $13,000 | 1.22 |
| George Kittle | SF | TE | 13.40 | $5,800 | $8,700 | 2.31 | $11,000 | 1.22 |
| Jayden Reed | GB | WR | 11.78 | $6,800 | $10,200 | 1.73 | $10,500 | 1.12 |
| Romeo Doubs | GB | WR | 9.36 | $8,200 | $12,300 | 1.14 | $10,000 | 0.94 |
| Jake Moody | SF | K | 8.55 | $4,800 | $7,200 | 1.78 | $9,000 | 0.95 |
| Dontayvion Wicks | GB | WR | 8.31 | $5,200 | $7,800 | 1.60 | $9,000 | 0.92 |
| Christian Watson | GB | WR | 7.89 | $4,600 | $6,900 | 1.72 | $9,500 | 0.83 |
| 49ers | SF | DST | 7.37 | $4,200 | $6,300 | 1.75 | $9,500 | 0.78 |
| Anders Carlson | GB | K | 6.51 | $4,400 | $6,600 | 1.48 | $8,500 | 0.77 |
| Tucker Kraft | GB | TE | 5.91 | $2,600 | $3,900 | 2.27 | $8,000 | 0.74 |
| Luke Musgrave | GB | TE | 5.84 | $3,600 | $5,400 | 1.62 | $7,500 | 0.78 |
| Packers | GB | DST | 4.97 | $3,400 | $5,100 | 1.46 | $8,500 | 0.58 |
| Jauan Jennings | SF | WR | 3.62 | $3,000 | $4,500 | 1.21 | $7,000 | 0.52 |
| Elijah Mitchell | SF | RB | 2.57 | $3,200 | $4,800 | 0.80 | $7,500 | 0.34 |
| Kyle Juszczyk | SF | RB | 1.59 | $1,000 | $1,500 | 1.59 | $6,000 | 0.27 |
| Emanuel Wilson | GB | RB | 1.53 | $1,400 | $2,100 | 1.09 | $6,500 | 0.24 |
| Bo Melton | GB | WR | 1.43 | $2,200 | $3,300 | 0.65 | $7,000 | 0.20 |
| Ray-Ray McCloud | SF | WR | 1.42 | $800 | $1,200 | 1.78 | $6,000 | 0.24 |
Fantasy Sleepers
Christian Watson: $4,600 DK / $9,500 FD
There are a lot of arguments to make against Watson in this spot. For starters, the Packers likely to ease back in players who are returning from injury. We saw that last week, as he only played on 23 snaps and only ran a route on 29% of dropbacks. On top of that, he’s one of seven potential wideout options on the Packers. This should all lead to low ownership. I’m expecting his snap share to increase in this game. Before getting injured, he topped 20 fantasy points in 3 straight games.
Niners vs. Packers Player Pick’em
Aaron Jones more than 19.5 receiving yards (1.80x) – Sleeper
Jones hasn’t been as involved in the passing game as in the past, largely because Love doesn’t check down as often as Aaron Rodgers. However, it’s worth noting that the Packers have been playing with a lead in most of their games over the last couple of months. Seeing as how they are 9.5-point underdogs, I am expecting more dropbacks for Love. We know Jones is a very capable pass catcher, and during the regular season, the Niners allowed the 7th-most receiving yards to running backs.
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