The NFL Grind Down: Monday Night Football - Niners vs. Ravens
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In this article, we will take a look at the top DraftKings and FanDuel picks for Niners vs. Ravens, go over potential sleepers, and even take a look at some player props that we can target on fantasy pick’em sites like Sleeper Fantasy ahead of this Monday Night Football matchup.
NFL DFS Showdown DraftKings Picks and Sleepers — Niners vs. Ravens
We did it! We made it to Christmas night. I hope everyone has had a wonderful day thus far. Let’s finish it off in style by making this a profitable showdown slate.
The Niners and Ravens have been two of the best teams in the NFL this season. We are potentially looking at a Super Bowl preview, as both of these teams have a path for the top seed in their respective conference. They are both 11-3 on the season, they both have lethal offenses, and they both have elite defenses. This should be a great way to spend the last few hours of Christmas. The spread for this game is set at 5.5 points and the total is set at 47.5 points.
Key Injuries
Jauan Jennings – Out
Elijah Mitchell – Questionable
Keaton Mitchell – Out
Zay Flowers – Questionable
San Francisco 49ers Preview
The Niners look like the best team in the NFL right now. They seem to steamroll every opponent placed in front of them. The offense has been so good that Brock Purdy is now the betting favorite to win the MVP. He’s always had a high floor but has added a high ceiling to his repertoire this season. He has topped 20 fantasy points in 9 of his last 12 games and has topped 29 fantasy points in 2 of his last 5 games. A matchup against the Ravens is far from ideal, but Kyle Shanahan will have a game plan that maximizes San Francisco’s talent on offense. Purdy isn’t my favorite MVP or CPT, but he’s an easy click as a FLEX target.
Deebo Samuel has stolen the show in the last 4 games, but this is where the pendulum can swing back to Brandon Aiyuk. He leads the team in target share (24%) and air yards share (42%) this season. The Ravens are 12th in fantasy points allowed to wide receivers but have allowed the 9th most receptions to the position. Baltimore doesn’t give up a lot of home run type of plays, which is where Samuel does most of his damage. A case can be made for both receivers, but I prefer Aiyuk over Samuel in this particular matchup. I will also be making a rule in the optimizer to use a max of one when it comes to these two wideouts.
Jauan Jennings did not clear concussion protocol and has been ruled out of this game. While he doesn’t have a major role in the offense, his absence creates an opportunity for Ronnie Bell ($2,000 on DraftKings). George Kittle has the widest range of potential outcomes of anyone on the slate. He’s just as likely to score 4 fantasy points as he is to score 25 fantasy points. The Ravens have been tough on tight ends this season, but here’s the thing — they aren’t going to be able to stop everyone in this offense.
Christian McCaffrey is coming off of another massive performance against the Cardinals. If he got to face Arizona every game, he would break NFL records left and right. The Ravens present a much tougher matchup, but C-Mac has been matchup-proof during his time with the Niners. He’s a big part of the running game and the passing game. I never feel good about fading C-Mac on a full slate, so I certainly won’t be looking to fade him on a showdown slate. He deserves consideration at both MVP and CPT. If Elijah Mitchell (questionable) is out again, Jordan Mason will play the backup role.
The Niners’ defense is capable of generating pressure and turnovers, but the Ravens’ offense is good at avoiding both. I’m fine using the Niners D/ST in large-field tournaments, but will be avoiding them in cash games and small-field tournaments. This might be the best spot of the season for Jake Moody. The Niners should still move the ball with ease here, but they could struggle to score touchdowns against this defense.
Baltimore Ravens Preview
Lamar Jackson hasn’t been as consistent as in years past, but he still offers one of the highest ceilings of any quarterback in the league. More importantly, there is a lot on the line in this game. The Ravens have a chance at the top seed in the AFC and if they pull off the upset, Jackson could end up being the betting favorite for MVP. This is a rare game where the Ravens aren’t favored, so they might have to lean on Jackson a little more than usual. He has rushing upside and can make plays through the air as well. I would argue that his floor is lower than Purdy’s, but that he has a slightly higher ceiling. His ability to score a rushing touchdown or two puts him in consideration at MVP and CPT.
Since Mark Andrews went down with his injury, Zay Flowers has led the team in targets followed closely by Isaiah Likely. Flowers has struggled with consistency this season and is coming off of a bad performance, but he’s my favorite wideout on the Ravens (assuming he’s able to suit up). The Niners are very tough against the pass in terms of advanced metrics, but they have allowed the 13th most fantasy points to wide receivers. I’ll end up with exposure to both, as there’s not much separating the two in terms of pricing or their individual projections.
I get the feeling that the ancillary wideouts for the Ravens are going to be what decides this slate. If you pick the right one, you will be well on your way to cashing. Odell Beckham, Rashod Bateman, and Nelson Agholor all play significant snaps alongside Flowers. Beckham has more targets than the other two since the Andrews injury, but he’s also the most expensive. On a per-dollar basis, I prefer Agholor on DraftKings ($1,000). If you are playing large-field tournaments, I recommend getting exposure to all three receivers.
Keaton Mitchell established himself as the RB1 over the last few weeks, but he was placed on injured reserve with a knee injury. Gus Edwards and Justice Hill will lead the way in the backfield, but the Ravens also have Melvin Gordon. The split between Edwards and Hill will likely come down to game script. If the Ravens are playing with a lead, Edwards should dominate the touches. If they fall behind, Hill should see a major spike in playing time. As far as the matchup goes, the Niners are 29th in rush EPA and have allowed the 5th most receptions to running backs. The spot is actually better than you might think for both Edwards and Hill.
The Ravens’ defense is a tough sell here, as we haven’t seen many opponents slow down the Niners this season. I would only look their way in large-field tournaments. Kicker Justin Tucker is firmly in play, as I could see a scenario where both offenses move the ball but ultimately settle for field goals once they get into the redzone.
Lineup Construction Thoughts
I view Lamar Jackson as a must play on this slate, at least in small-field tournaments and cash games. I will likely lock him into my lineups in large-field tournaments as well. After Lamar, I’m prioritizing all of the Niners’ playmakers. In other words, I plan to have a lot of San Francisco onslaughts with Jackson as the only bring-back. And maybe a few lineups with Jackson and one of the cheaper options on Baltimore (Hill, Bateman, Agholor). I’m also going to be overweight on Moody, as I could see this turning into a game where the Niners move the ball easily but have to settle for field goals.
Niners-Ravens DFS Salaries & Projections
| Player | Team | Pos | Proj | DK Sal | CPT Sal | DK/$ | FD Sal | FD/$ |
|---|---|---|---|---|---|---|---|---|
| Christian McCaffrey | SF | RB | 25.35 | $11,800 | $17,700 | 2.15 | $17,000 | 1.49 |
| Lamar Jackson | BAL | QB | 22.00 | $10,800 | $16,200 | 2.04 | $16,000 | 1.38 |
| Brock Purdy | SF | QB | 19.71 | $10,000 | $15,000 | 1.97 | $15,500 | 1.27 |
| Deebo Samuel | SF | WR | 17.30 | $10,200 | $15,300 | 1.70 | $14,500 | 1.19 |
| Brandon Aiyuk | SF | WR | 16.57 | $9,000 | $13,500 | 1.84 | $13,000 | 1.27 |
| George Kittle | SF | TE | 12.14 | $7,400 | $11,100 | 1.64 | $11,000 | 1.10 |
| Zay Flowers | BAL | WR | 11.62 | $7,000 | $10,500 | 1.66 | $12,500 | 0.93 |
| Isaiah Likely | BAL | TE | 10.49 | $6,400 | $9,600 | 1.64 | $10,000 | 1.05 |
| Odell Beckham | BAL | WR | 8.89 | $5,600 | $8,400 | 1.59 | $8,500 | 1.05 |
| Gus Edwards | BAL | RB | 8.35 | $8,000 | $12,000 | 1.04 | $11,500 | 0.73 |
| 49ers | SF | DST | 7.39 | $4,000 | $6,000 | 1.85 | $9,500 | 0.78 |
| Rashod Bateman | BAL | WR | 7.32 | $4,400 | $6,600 | 1.66 | $8,000 | 0.92 |
| Jake Moody | SF | K | 7.18 | $4,600 | $6,900 | 1.56 | $9,000 | 0.80 |
| Justin Tucker | BAL | K | 7.14 | $5,200 | $7,800 | 1.37 | $8,500 | 0.84 |
| Ravens | BAL | DST | 5.45 | $3,600 | $5,400 | 1.51 | $9,000 | 0.61 |
| Justice Hill | BAL | RB | 5.28 | $3,800 | $5,700 | 1.39 | $8,000 | 0.66 |
| Nelson Agholor | BAL | WR | 3.24 | $1,000 | $1,500 | 3.24 | $7,500 | 0.43 |
| Jordan Mason | SF | RB | 3.13 | $2,400 | $3,600 | 1.30 | $7,000 | 0.45 |
| Charlie Kolar | BAL | TE | 2.35 | $800 | $1,200 | 2.94 | $6,500 | 0.36 |
| Ronnie Bell | SF | WR | 2.04 | $2,000 | $3,000 | 1.02 | $6,500 | 0.31 |
| Charlie Woerner | SF | TE | 0.76 | $200 | $300 | 3.80 | $5,000 | 0.15 |
| Chris Conley | SF | WR | 0.57 | $200 | $300 | 2.85 | $5,000 | 0.11 |
Fantasy Sleepers
Justice Hill: $3,800 DK / $8,000 FD
I’m writing this before we have ownership projections up for the game, so hopefully, Justice Hill doesn’t end up being the chalk value. With Keaton Mitchell on injured reserve, Hill will naturally see an uptick in snaps. The Ravens are rarely underdogs, and he’s the best pass-catching running back on the roster. On top of that, the one position that has had success against the Niners is running back. They have allowed the 5th most receptions and the 12th most receiving yards to the position this season.
Niners vs. Ravens Player Pick’em
Season record: 33-16
30-8 over the last 38 games
Jake Moody more than 1.5 fields goals made (1.87x) – Sleeper
It took until the last minute of the game, but Ezekiel Elliott covered his receiving prop. This streak is like nothing I’ve ever been on. A heater over the course of an entire season? For this game, we are rolling with Jake Moody to make more than 1.5 field goals. As noted above, I expect the Niners to move the ball in this game. However, the Ravens have a very tough defense, especially in the redzone. Moody has only made 2 or more field goals in 5 games this season, but I like his chances to reach that number in this one.
Image Credit: Getty Images