The NFL Grind Down: Sunday Night Football - Raiders vs. Jets
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In this article, we will take a look at the top DraftKings and FanDuel picks for Raiders vs. Jets, go over potential sleepers, and even take a look at some player props that we can target on fantasy pick’em sites like Sleeper Fantasy ahead of this Sunday Night Football matchup.
NFL DFS Showdown DraftKings Picks and Sleepers — Raiders vs. Jets
We have another primetime showdown slate to break down, so let’s get right into it. The current versions of the Raiders and Jets aren’t what the NFL had in mind when making this the Sunday Night Football game, but perhaps these teams can surprise everyone and give us a good game. The Raiders have been able to beat up on the bad teams but have struggled to move the ball against good defenses. The Jets have one of the best defenses in the NFL, but it is being wasted on an offense that hasn’t been able to get out of neutral this season. In terms of the line, the Jets are 1-point favorites in a game that features a total of only 36.5 points.
Key Injuries
None
Las Vegas Raiders Preview
Barring an injury, it appears the Raiders are done with the Jimmy Garoppolo experiment. We can expect Aidan O’Connell aka AOC to start at quarterback the rest of the way. We haven’t really seen what he can do on the field, as the Raiders have kept him under wraps in his three appearances. He is averaging a paltry 6.8 yards per attempt and has been held under 10 fantasy points in each of his last two starts (against the Bears and Giants nonetheless). This is a rare spot where I feel fine fading a quarterback on a showdown slate. The Jets have the 2nd-highest pressure rate in the NFL and are 4th in DVOA against the pass.
It’s to the point where I don’t think the squeaky wheel with Davante Adams has any squeak left. It has been five straight weeks of him complaining about his targets and we have yet to see anything change on the field. There’s a decent chance he leads the team in targets again, but he’ll draw coverage from Sauce Gardner in a game where we expect the Raiders to lean on the run. Jakobi Meyers has only caught 4-of-9 targets for 71 yards in O’Connell’s two full starts, so it’s not like he’s an easier click than Adams.
Hunter Renfrow has had a decent role over the last three weeks. He’s not going to get peppered with targets, but the Jets might stick Gardner on Adams and double-team Meyers. Some of the ancillary wideouts on the Raiders can certainly get there, especially at their price points on DraftKings. Renfrow has 6 receptions over the last three games. Michael Mayer hasn’t produced much at tight end, but he played on 88% of snaps last week. And for what it’s worth, the Jets are 1st in fantasy points allowed to wide receivers and 17th in fantasy points allowed to tight ends.
With interim coach Antonio Pierce at the helm in Week 9, Josh Jacobs had a season-high 26 rushing attempts that he turned into 96 yards and 2 touchdowns. The Raiders don’t want to throw the ball, and they likely won’t be able to when they try, so we can expect another heavy workload for Jacobs. The Jets haven’t been nearly as tough against the run, ranking 21st in DVOA and allowing the 7th most fantasy points to running backs. The best path for Ameer Abdullah or Zamir White to find the optimal is in a blowout, so I would only consider rostering them if you are mass multi-entering (MME) the slate.
The Raiders defense has to be feeling good about a great performance against the Giants, and now they get a home matchup against Zach Wilson. The Raiders have an average pressure rate, but the Jets are bottom five in pressure rate allowed and sacks allowed per game. Kicker Daniel Carlson is viable given the low total of the game.
New York Jets Preview
I know it’s so easy for us to say from the comfort of our couches, but how did the Jets not pick up a veteran quarterback? Are they really clinging to the hope that Zach Wilson can keep the ship afloat and that Aaron Rodgers is going to return from an Achilles injury? I don’t have faith in one of those happening, let alone both. I mean, Joshua Dobbs was basically free at the trade deadline. The Jets have seemingly dug themselves a hole, and Wilson is the only man that can get them out of it. As far as this game goes, he squares off against a Raiders defense that is 15th in both DVOA against the pass and dropback EPA.
Garrett Wilson is easily the top target in this passing game. He has 81 targets on the season, which is 46 more than the next closest players on the Jets. He also boasts a 49% air yards share. Now, those metrics need to be taken with a grain of salt because of his quarterback, but at least the usage is there. The Raiders have somehow held wide receivers to the 6th fewest fantasy points this season, but it’s not like they have a great pass rush or secondary.
Allen Lazard has struggled all season and hasn’t topped double-digit fantasy points since Week 4. On a per-dollar basis (especially on DraftKings), I prefer Xavier Gipson. He’s only $200 and ran a route on 62% of dropbacks last week. We’ll likely see another healthy scratch for Randall Cobb. For whatever reason, I have always had a soft spot for Tyler Conklin. Perhaps he treated me well on a random showdown slate a few years ago or something. Conklin could have the second highest target share on the team in this one, and the Raiders have been very mediocre at defending tight ends.
After 1,067 words so far in this article (yes I counted them), we finally arrive at a play that I feel good about. Over the last four games, Breece Hall has 25, 17, 18, and 20 touches. The Jets are more than willing to give him 15+ carries, and we know Wilson loves to dump the ball off to his running backs. In addition to the elite workload, Hall has the best matchup of any player on the slate. The Raiders are bottom five in DVOA against the run, rush EPA, and fantasy points allowed to running backs. If building only one lineup, Hall is my MVP on FanDuel and CPT on DraftKings. Michael Carter remains my preferred punt in this backfield over Dalvin Cook, but neither stand out as great options.
The Jets D/ST is one of my favorite plays of the slate. They have the pieces to stop Adams, they have one of the best pass rushes, and they might be able to sell out to stop the run. If the offense can build a lead (a big if), the defense should be able to tee off against this offensive line. Greg Zuerlein still has one of the best legs in football, and the Jets tend to struggle when they get in the red zone. It’s not crazy to think this could be a four or five field goal game from ‘Greg the Leg.’
Lineup Construction Thoughts
This is one of the strangest showdown slates in recent memory. I can’t remember another time where I didn’t want to play either quarterback. I’m not saying you can’t roster O’Connell or Wilson, but a ceiling game from either is likely around 20 fantasy points. When I do roster them, it will be at the flex / utility spots. For MVP and CPT, I am looking to roster players that can actually break slates, such as Jacobs, G. Wilson, and Hall. On DraftKings, I can even see using the Jets D/ST or Zuerlein at CPT.
I don’t have a strong take on the onslaughts in this game. If one team somehow runs away with the game, it will likely be due to their defense creating turnovers. I don’t see one offense really dominating, so if building an onslaught, I would rather include the defense and the kicker over all skill position players.
Raiders-Jets DFS Salaries & Projections
| Player | Team | Pos | Proj | DK Sal | CPT Sal | DK/$ | FD Sal | FD/$ |
|---|---|---|---|---|---|---|---|---|
| Breece Hall | NYJ | RB | 18.10 | $11,400 | $17,100 | 1.59 | $16,500 | 1.10 |
| Josh Jacobs | LV | RB | 17.53 | $11,000 | $16,500 | 1.59 | $16,000 | 1.10 |
| Davante Adams | LV | WR | 15.37 | $11,600 | $17,400 | 1.33 | $14,000 | 1.10 |
| Garrett Wilson | NYJ | WR | 14.80 | $9,600 | $14,400 | 1.54 | $13,000 | 1.14 |
| Zach Wilson | NYJ | QB | 13.72 | $8,600 | $12,900 | 1.60 | $11,000 | 1.25 |
| Aidan O’Connell | LV | QB | 13.54 | $8,400 | $12,600 | 1.61 | $12,000 | 1.13 |
| Jakobi Meyers | LV | WR | 10.92 | $9,200 | $13,800 | 1.19 | $12,500 | 0.87 |
| Allen Lazard | NYJ | WR | 7.73 | $6,600 | $9,900 | 1.17 | $8,500 | 0.91 |
| Greg Zuerlein | NYJ | K | 7.68 | $4,400 | $6,600 | 1.75 | $9,500 | 0.81 |
| Raiders | LV | DST | 7.36 | $4,600 | $6,900 | 1.60 | $9,500 | 0.77 |
| Jets | NYJ | DST | 7.05 | $4,200 | $6,300 | 1.68 | $10,000 | 0.71 |
| Daniel Carlson | LV | K | 6.63 | $5,000 | $7,500 | 1.33 | $9,000 | 0.74 |
| Tyler Conklin | NYJ | TE | 6.35 | $5,200 | $7,800 | 1.22 | $7,500 | 0.85 |
| Michael Mayer | LV | TE | 4.91 | $3,600 | $5,400 | 1.36 | $7,000 | 0.70 |
| Michael Carter | NYJ | RB | 3.48 | $1,800 | $2,700 | 1.93 | $6,000 | 0.58 |
| Hunter Renfrow | LV | WR | 3.40 | $1,000 | $1,500 | 3.40 | $7,500 | 0.45 |
| Ameer Abdullah | LV | RB | 2.91 | $3,000 | $4,500 | 0.97 | $6,000 | 0.49 |
| Xavier Gipson | NYJ | WR | 2.70 | $200 | $300 | 13.50 | $6,500 | 0.42 |
| Dalvin Cook | NYJ | RB | 2.64 | $4,000 | $6,000 | 0.66 | $7,000 | 0.38 |
| Tre Tucker | LV | WR | 2.54 | $800 | $1,200 | 3.18 | $8,000 | 0.32 |
| C.J. Uzomah | NYJ | TE | 2.08 | $400 | $600 | 5.20 | $5,500 | 0.38 |
| Austin Hooper | LV | TE | 1.74 | $600 | $900 | 2.90 | $6,500 | 0.27 |
| Jeremy Ruckert | NYJ | TE | 1.19 | $200 | $300 | 5.95 | $5,500 | 0.22 |
| Zamir White | LV | RB | 1.18 | $2,000 | $3,000 | 0.59 | $5,500 | 0.21 |
| DeAndre Carter | LV | WR | 1.01 | $200 | $300 | 5.05 | $5,500 | 0.18 |
| Malik Taylor | NYJ | WR | 0.93 | $200 | $300 | 4.65 | $5,000 | 0.19 |
Fantasy Sleepers
Jets D/ST: $4,200 DK / $10,000 FD
I promise I tried to find a true sleeper in this game, but to no avail. The Jets D/ST is not going to be contrarian in this spot, but that doesn’t mean they are a bad option. We’ve seen far too many defenses dominate showdown slates this season, and given how bad these offenses are, we could see that happen again. The Jets have the second best pressure rate in the NFL, they have one of the best cover corners in the NFL, and they create a lot of turnovers.
Raiders vs. Jets Player Pick’em
Greg Zuerlein more than 5.5 kicking points (1.66x) – Sleeper
There are two props available for Zuerlein in this game — 5.5 kicking points or 1.5 field goals made. I prefer the first for a number of reasons. For starters, if he makes two field goals (which is needed for the second prop), he’ll automatically hit the first prop. The first prop also gives us an out when it comes to extra points. If he makes one field goal and kicks three extra points, he’ll cover the over of 5.5 kicking points. He has scored at least 6.0 kicking points in each of the last four games.