The NFL Grind Down: Sunday Night Football - Raiders vs. Steelers
In this article, we will take a look at the top DraftKings and FanDuel picks for the Raiders vs. Steelers, go over potential sleepers, and even take a look at some player props that we can target on fantasy pick’em sites like Sleeper Fantasy ahead of this Sunday Night Football matchup.
NFL DFS Showdown DraftKings Picks and Sleepers — Raiders vs. Steelers
Whether you had a good main slate or a bad one, have no fear, showdown is here. We should have a good game tonight between the Steelers and the Raiders. The Steelers traveled across the country on a short week and are playing in their first road game of the season, while the Raiders finally have their home opener after road games against the Broncos and Bills. This game features a 3-point spread (Raiders are favored) and a 43-point total.
Las Vegas Raiders Preview
The Raiders picked up a nice win in Denver in Week 1, but ran into an angry Bills team in Week 2. They sit at 1-1 in the standings and now have their Vegas home opener tonight against the Steelers. If anyone watched the game on Monday night, you know that the Steelers defense is no joke. On the season, they are eighth in EPA against the pass with the third best pressure rate on quarterbacks. I’ve never been a Jimmy Garoppolo truther, but he has plenty of weapons to work with and projects well in the context of tonight’s two game slate. He’s not on my radar for MVP (FD) or Captain (DK), but he deserves consideration in all formats.
Jakobi Meyers had a breakout performance in Week 1 (9/81/2), but was forced to miss last week’s game with a concussion. He’s expected back tonight and is one of the tougher decision points on the slate. After a quiet Week 1 performance, Davante Adams put together a solid outing against the Bills. His underlying usage has been nothing short of elite with a 34% target share and a 46% air yards share through the first two games. He might have the highest ceiling of any player in this game. Adams is more expensive than Meyers, but I will still be prioritizing him in my builds.
Hunter Renfrow and DeAndre Carter will round out the receiving corps, but neither player projects well this evening. The Steelers have historically been tough on tight ends, but Austin Hooper is only $2,400 on DraftKings. He has only run a route on 48% of drop-backs this season, but could see around a 10% target share tonight. All it takes is one touchdown for him to find his way onto the tournament-winning lineup.
My favorite play from the Raiders is Josh Jacobs, who had negative rushing yards against the Bills. Yes, you read that correctly. Jacobs had nine carries for negative two yards last week in Buffalo. It was an ugly performance, but this matchup sets up a lot better for him. The Raiders want to run the ball and the Steelers are 20th in EPA against the run while allowing the third most fantasy points to running backs. Additionally, they are dead last in yards allowed after contact. We know Jacobs is a tough runner that works for extra yards and that could really pay dividends in this matchup.
Kicker Daniel Carlson is a good play if you think the Raiders will have drives stall out in the red zone (very likely), and the Raiders defense is a sneaky target against Kenny Pickett, who has looked a bit lost in the first two games of the season.
Pittsburgh Steelers Preview
The Steelers have not been able to get much going offensively this season. They were run off the field by the Niners and had to rely on two defensive touchdowns to beat the Browns in Week 2. After an amazing preseason, it’s strange to see Kenny Pickett look so uncomfortable in the pocket. He did have a long touchdown to George Pickens last week, but that was somewhat of a lucky play. It was a fairly routine route from Pickens and Pickett was nearly sacked. This really comes down to whether or not the Raiders can get pressure on Pickett. If not, he should be able to pick apart this secondary. Through two games, Las Vegas is 28th in EPA against the pass.
Diontae Johnson is still on IR, which means Pickens is the clear WR1 in Pittsburgh for the time being. Through two games, he has a route participation rate of 88%, a target share of 21%, and an air yards share of 38%. This is his best matchup to date, which makes him one of the most appealing plays on the slate. Allen Robinson and Calvin Austin will both see upticks in snap share and target share with Johnson out. They are priced similarly and have nearly identical ownership projections. The Steelers desperately need to get Pat Freiermuth going. He has two catches for five yards this season. He’s running routes, but the targets haven’t been there. This is his best matchup to date, as the Raiders have allowed the fourth-most fantasy points to tight ends this season.
Najee Harris runs hard and always fights for that extra yard, but he looks slow and hasn’t been a big part of the passing game. Through two games, he has averaged 37 rushing yards and 1.5 receiving yards. A matchup against the Raiders is certainly enticing (31st in EPA against the run), but the Steelers said this week that they want to get Jaylen Warren more touches. He has been the more explosive of the two thus far and has had a bigger role in the passing game. We have the two projected for the same number of fantasy points, and Warren is considerably cheaper on both sites. I’m siding with Warren this evening.
The Steelers defense is one of the best in the NFL and deserves consideration in tournaments. Kicker Chris Boswell can be used to round out lineups.
Raiders-Steelers DFS Salaries & Projections
| Player | Team | Pos | Proj | DK Sal | CPT Sal | DK/$ | FD Sal | FD/$ |
|---|---|---|---|---|---|---|---|---|
| Josh Jacobs | LV | RB | 19.46 | $10,800 | $16,200 | 1.80 | $12,500 | 1.56 |
| Davante Adams | LV | WR | 19.35 | $11,600 | $17,400 | 1.67 | $15,500 | 1.25 |
| Kenny Pickett | PIT | QB | 18.74 | $9,800 | $14,700 | 1.91 | $14,000 | 1.34 |
| Jimmy Garoppolo | LV | QB | 18.38 | $10,200 | $15,300 | 1.80 | $14,500 | 1.27 |
| George Pickens | PIT | WR | 16.09 | $9,200 | $13,800 | 1.75 | $11,000 | 1.46 |
| Jakobi Meyers | LV | WR | 13.54 | $8,600 | $12,900 | 1.57 | $11,500 | 1.18 |
| Najee Harris | PIT | RB | 11.73 | $8,800 | $13,200 | 1.33 | $13,000 | 0.90 |
| Jaylen Warren | PIT | RB | 11.56 | $6,400 | $9,600 | 1.81 | $10,000 | 1.16 |
| Allen Robinson | PIT | WR | 10.48 | $5,000 | $7,500 | 2.10 | $9,500 | 1.10 |
| Pat Freiermuth | PIT | TE | 9.88 | $6,200 | $9,300 | 1.59 | $8,000 | 1.24 |
| Calvin Austin III | PIT | WR | 9.47 | $4,200 | $6,300 | 2.25 | $7,500 | 1.26 |
| Daniel Carlson | LV | K | 7.56 | $3,400 | $5,100 | 2.22 | $9,000 | 0.84 |
| Chris Boswell | PIT | K | 6.89 | $3,600 | $5,400 | 1.91 | $8,500 | 0.81 |
| Raiders | LV | DST | 5.79 | $4,000 | $6,000 | 1.45 | $8,500 | 0.68 |
| Austin Hooper | LV | TE | 5.07 | $2,400 | $3,600 | 2.11 | $7,000 | 0.72 |
| Steelers | PIT | DST | 5.02 | $5,600 | $8,400 | 0.90 | $9,000 | 0.56 |
| Hunter Renfrow | LV | WR | 4.69 | $3,000 | $4,500 | 1.56 | $8,000 | 0.59 |
| Ameer Abdullah | LV | RB | 2.68 | $200 | $300 | 13.40 | $7,500 | 0.36 |
| Michael Mayer | LV | TE | 2.49 | $200 | $300 | 12.45 | $6,500 | 0.38 |
| Zamir White | LV | RB | 2.04 | $2,000 | $3,000 | 1.02 | $6,000 | 0.34 |
| Connor Heyward | PIT | TE | 1.83 | $600 | $900 | 3.05 | $7,000 | 0.26 |
| Kristian Wilkerson | LV | WR | 1.77 | $200 | $300 | 8.85 | $5,000 | 0.35 |
| DeAndre Carter | LV | WR | 1.49 | $800 | $1,200 | 1.86 | $6,500 | 0.23 |
| Miles Boykin | PIT | WR | 1.42 | $200 | $300 | 7.10 | $5,000 | 0.28 |
| Darnell Washington | PIT | TE | 1.32 | $400 | $600 | 3.30 | $5,000 | 0.26 |
Fantasy Sleepers
Pat Freiermuth – $6,200 DK / $9,300 FD
It has not been pretty for Freiermuth through the first two games. He only has two more catches than I do on the season. However, the Niners are historically very tough on tight ends and the Browns are third in fantasy points allowed to tight ends this season, so perhaps we can chalk up those bad performances to difficult matchups. This week he faces a Raiders team that hasn’t been able to generate pressure and that has been awful against tight ends. With Diontae Johnson still out, Freiermuth has a clear path to the second-highest target share on the team.
Raiders vs. Steelers Player Props
Josh Jacobs more than 71.5 rushing yards (1.78x) – Sleeper
It’s strange picking a player to go over 71.5 rushing yards after he had negative the week before, but everything sets up so well for Jacobs. He’s a home favorite and he’s facing a run-funnel defense. The Steelers are very tough against the pass and have struggled mightily against the run. Jacobs hasn’t had much competition for touches in this backfield, and we know the Raiders will want to establish the run early in order to avoid obvious passing situations. Jacobs has a clear path to 20+ carries tonight.
Final DFS Showdown Thoughts
I don’t pretend to know how each game is going to play out, but I plan to roster a lot of Josh Jacobs and a lot of the passing game from the Steelers. Good luck tonight!