The NFL DFS Grind Down: Thursday Night Football - Rams vs. 49ers
In this article, we will take a look at the top DraftKings and FanDuel picks for the Rams vs. 49ers, go over potential NFL DFS sleepers, and even take a look at some picks we can target on Fantasy Pick’em sites like Sleeper Fantasy ahead of this Thursday Night Football matchup. As always, you can visit our NFL lineup optimizer, LineupHQ, to help you with your lineup-building process.
NFL DFS Showdown DraftKings Picks and Sleepers — Rams vs. 49ers
We are back with another Thursday Night Football game, and once again, this is shaping up to be a good one. The NFC West is up for grabs this season, as all four teams have records between 6-7 and 8-5. The loser of tonight’s game will need some serious help the rest of the way in order to make the playoffs. These are two potent offenses, so we can expect a high-scoring affair in San Francisco. The game features a 3-point spread and a 48.5-point total.
Key Injuries
Tyler Higbee – Out
Demarcus Robinson – Questionable
Davis Allen – Questionable
Christian McCaffrey – Out
Jordan Mason – Out
Eli Mitchell – Out
Isaac Guerendo – Questionable (plans to play)
Los Angeles Rams Preview
The Rams weren’t expected to do much this season, especially after Aaron Donald retired in the summer. With injuries to their best two wide receivers early in the season, it’s pretty amazing that the Rams have a real chance to make the playoffs. Matthew Stafford deserves a ton of credit, as he’s been solid all season. He’s thrown for 2 or more touchdowns in 6 of his last 7 games and continues to offer a high floor in fantasy football. I don’t love him as a CPT tonight on DraftKings, but he’s a viable MVP on FanDuel and close to a must as a FLEX/UTIL on both sites. The Niners have a good pass defense, but Stafford’s high median projection will likely be needed on this slate.
Here’s the wideout usage for the Rams in Weeks 8-14:
Puka Nacua: 30% target share, 33% air yards share, 37% first-read rate
Cooper Kupp: 25% target share, 25% air yards share, 31% first-read rate
Demarcus Robinson: 11% target share, 21% air yards share, 11% first-read rate
Davis Allen: 4% target share, 2% air yards share, 3% first-read rate
The passing attack essentially flows through two players: Puka Nacua and Cooper Kupp. The former has been the better target earner and producer this season. He boasts a 30% target share and a 33% air yards share since Week 8 (that includes a game where he was ejected in the first half). I will continue to prioritize Nacua over Kupp, but I will make sure to have exposure to both receivers this evening. Demarcus Robinson is questionable, so we’ll have to keep an eye on his status. Tutu Atwell would stand to benefit the most in his absence. If Davis Allen is unable to suit up, Colby Parkinson would have a full-time role with Tyler Higbee also out.
Kyren Williams leads all NFL running backs in snap share this season. Blake Corum will get a drive or two per game, but that’s only because the Rams want Williams to be fresh in the second half. He has 29 carries and 2 receptions in last week’s win over the Bills and has scored 14 touchdowns in 13 games this season. He makes all too much sense, as the Niners have been susceptible to the run this season, ranking 29th in PFF’s grades against the run, 28th in EPA against the run, and 23rd in fantasy points allowed to running backs. My two favorite CPT targets from the Rams are Nacua and Williams.
The Rams defense could always generate a turnover and turn it into a score, but I don’t love either defense on this slate. Joshua Karty has only averaged 6.7 fantasy points per game this season, which is quite low for a kicker.
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San Francisco 49ers Preview
At this point last season, Brock Purdy was an MVP candidate. He hasn’t had nearly as good of a year, but he has still been very productive from a fantasy standpoint. He’s scored at least 19 fantasy points in 6 of his last 7 games and has already had 3 games this season with at least 40 rushing yards. He’s still without two of his best weapons, but he’s playing at home against a defense that is 29th in EPA against the pass and 27th in fantasy points allowed to quarterbacks. Like Stafford, Purdy is close to a must in all formats tonight.
Let’s take a look at the wideout usage of the 49ers in Weeks 8-14:
Jauan Jennings: 29% target share, 36% air yards share, 36% first-read rate
Deebo Samuel: 19% target share, 15% air yards share, 24% first-read rate
Ricky Pearsall: 9% target share, 14% air yards share, 9% first-read rate
George Kittle: 19% target share, 23% air yards share, 21% first-read rate
Make no mistake about it, Jauan Jennings has been the best wideout for the Niners since Brandon Aiyuk went down with an injury in Week 7. Since then, Jennings has a 29% target share and a 36% air yards share. Everyone keeps trying to make Deebo Samuel work, but he hasn’t been nearly as explosive this season. I’ll continue to trust the underlying usage and prioritize Jennings over Samuel. On a per-dollar basis, I also prefer Pearsall over Samuel. George Kittle remains a big target in the passing game and has slate-winning type of upside. This is a solid matchup for all wideouts, as the Rams are 22nd in fantasy points allowed to wide receivers and 20th in fantasy points allowed to tight ends.
Christian McCaffrey is out, Jordan Mason is out, and Eli Mitchell is out. Isaac Guerendo was the clear RB1 last week against the Bears and turned his 17 touches into 118 yards from scrimmage and 2 touchdowns. He’s officially listed as questionable but said he “feels good” when asked about his availability for tonight’s game. Assuming he’s active, he’s one of the top targets on the board. This is an elite offensive system for running backs. Patrick Taylor will draw the start if Guerendo is unable to suit up. I like that DraftKings priced him up to $7,400, so he doesn’t become the free square if Guerendo is out.
I have more interest in the Niners defense than in the Rams defense, but I won’t be prioritizing either in what is expected to be a high-scoring game. I do like Jake Moody, as he could see several field goal attempts in this one.
Lineup Construction Thoughts
This is a slate where I will be prioritizing both running backs. Most of the field will do the same, but I will let the 40-50% of the field fade one of the quarterbacks. I will also be prioritizing the running backs, Puka Nacua, and Jauan Jennings. Now, I can’t fit all of those players into the same lineup, so I plan to build a few different squads for tonight’s slate. I don’t plan to have exposure to either defense and will only be looking to Jake Moody on the kicker side of things.
Rams vs. 49ers DFS Salaries & Projections
| Player | Team | Pos | Proj | DK Sal | CPT Sal | DK/$ | FD Sal | FD/$ |
|---|---|---|---|---|---|---|---|---|
| Puka Nacua | LAR | WR | 21.35 | $11,000 | $16,500 | 1.94 | $15,000 | 1.42 |
| Brock Purdy | SF | QB | 20.68 | $9,400 | $14,100 | 2.20 | $14,000 | 1.48 |
| Jauan Jennings | SF | WR | 17.14 | $8,600 | $12,900 | 1.99 | $10,500 | 1.63 |
| Cooper Kupp | LAR | WR | 16.29 | $10,000 | $15,000 | 1.63 | $13,500 | 1.21 |
| Kyren Williams | LAR | RB | 16.21 | $10,200 | $15,300 | 1.59 | $14,500 | 1.12 |
| Matthew Stafford | LAR | QB | 16.09 | $9,000 | $13,500 | 1.79 | $12,500 | 1.29 |
| Deebo Samuel | SF | WR | 15.43 | $7,600 | $11,400 | 2.03 | $9,500 | 1.62 |
| George Kittle | SF | TE | 15.39 | $8,000 | $12,000 | 1.92 | $11,000 | 1.40 |
| Isaac Guerendo | SF | RB | 12.17 | $8,400 | $12,600 | 1.45 | $12,000 | 1.01 |
| Patrick Taylor | SF | RB | 9.26 | $7,400 | $11,100 | 1.25 | $10,000 | 0.93 |
| Jake Moody | SF | K | 7.84 | $5,200 | $7,800 | 1.51 | $8,500 | 0.92 |
| Joshua Karty | LAR | K | 7.66 | $5,000 | $7,500 | 1.53 | $8,000 | 0.96 |
| Tutu Atwell | LAR | WR | 5.79 | $2,600 | $3,900 | 2.23 | $7,500 | 0.77 |
| 49ers | SF | DST | 5.62 | $4,000 | $6,000 | 1.41 | $8,500 | 0.66 |
| Rams | LAR | DST | 5.10 | $3,600 | $5,400 | 1.42 | $8,000 | 0.64 |
| Ricky Pearsall | SF | WR | 4.99 | $4,800 | $7,200 | 1.04 | $7,000 | 0.71 |
| Blake Corum | LAR | RB | 4.83 | $3,200 | $4,800 | 1.51 | $6,000 | 0.81 |
| Demarcus Robinson | LAR | WR | 4.75 | $4,400 | $6,600 | 1.08 | $9,000 | 0.53 |
| Kyle Juszczyk | SF | RB | 3.40 | $2,000 | $3,000 | 1.70 | $6,500 | 0.52 |
| Colby Parkinson | LAR | TE | 3.06 | $1,600 | $2,400 | 1.91 | $6,500 | 0.47 |
| Tyler Johnson | LAR | WR | 1.93 | $1,000 | $1,500 | 1.93 | $5,500 | 0.35 |
| Chris Conley | SF | WR | 1.61 | $200 | $300 | 8.05 | $6,000 | 0.27 |
Fantasy Sleepers
Jake Moody: $5,200 DK / $8,500 FD
Kickers have been priced up a bit this year for Showdown, which has led to lower ownership. We’ve had several primetime games where kickers have stolen the show. I expect the Niners to move the ball with ease against the Rams, but they have struggled in the red zone all season. That could certainly continue tonight without their top two running backs and Brandon Aiyuk.
Rams vs. 49ers Fantasy Pick’em
Season Fantasy Pick’em Record: 27-19
Jauan Jennings more than 68.5 receiving yards (1.68x) – Sleeper Fantasy
The Rams have been one of my favorite teams to see on the schedule this season. Their offense is elite, and their defense continues to allow a ton of points per game (they gave up 42 to Josh Allen and the Bills last week). Jauan Jennings has been the top target for Brock Purdy with Brandon Aiyuk out of the lineup. Since Week 8, he boasts a 29% target share, a 36% air yards share, and a 36% first-read rate. He’s top 90 receiving yards in 3 of the last 5 games, while the Rams have allowed the 2nd-most yards per reception (14.7) of any team this season.
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Image Credit: Getty Images
Stats credit: Fantasy Points Data and ProFootballFocus