The NFL DFS Grind Down: Thursday Night Football - Texans vs. Jets
In this article, we will take a look at the top DraftKings and FanDuel picks for Texans vs. Jets, go over potential NFL DFS sleepers, and even take a look at some picks we can target on Fantasy Pick’em sites like Sleeper Fantasy ahead of this Thursday Night Football matchup. As always, check the NFL weather page each week to see if wind or rain will impact this game (or any games).
NFL DFS Showdown DraftKings Picks and Sleepers – Texans vs. Jets
The Texans haven’t been able to avoid the injury bug in their receiving corps this season, while the Jets haven’t been able to avoid the ugly football bug. Let me tell you, they have a bad case of the ugly football bug. These teams appear to be heading in opposite directions, although I could see the Jets rattling off a few wins in a row to keep the hope alive (similar to the Yankees winning Game 4 in the World Series). This game features a 2-point spread and a 42.5-point total.
Key Injuries
Nico Collins – Out
Stefon Diggs – Out
Dameon Pierce – Out
Allen Lazard – Questionable
Greg Zuerlein – Out
Houston Texans Preview
The Texans are 6-2 to start the season despite having a point differential of only +9. They have won a lot of close games, which isn’t something teams want to rely on all season. C.J. Stroud has underwhelmed from a fantasy standpoint. If you take out the game against the Jaguars, he has averaged less than 15 fantasy points per game. The Jets have been losing games, but their pass defense has been solid. They have the 3rd-highest pressure rate and are 3rd in fantasy points allowed to quarterbacks. With Stefon Diggs and Nico Collins both out, it’s hard to envision a ceiling performance from Stroud on Thursday night.
I usually like to break down the wideout usage for each offense in these Showdown articles, but we have a unique situation on our hands. The top two wideouts for the Texans are now on injured reserve. Diggs and Collins have combined for 45% of the team’s targets and 70% of the team’s air yards. Tank Dell truthers unite, as he is now the clear WR1. Outside receivers haven’t had much success against the Jets, so it’s nice to see Dell’s 25% slot rate this season.
Xavier Hutchinson and John Metchie will round out 3-receiver sets, and both lined up in the slot on over 30% of their snaps in Week 8. They are cheap and really help with the stars-and-scrubs lineup approach. The Jets haven’t struggled to defend the tight end position, but it’s a relatively better matchup for Dalton Schultz than it is for the wide receivers. Schultz could see north of a 20% target rate in this game.
Since the Texans are missing their top two receivers and are facing one of the biggest run-funnel matchups in the NFL, I expect a heavy dose of Joe Mixon. The Jets are 28th in PFF’s grades against the run and 21st in EPA against the run. On top of that, they are likely going to be without one of their best run-stoppers, C.J. Mosley. Mixon has had at least 25 carries in 3 of his 5 games this season. He’s my favorite MVP/CPT target on Houston.
The Texans’ defense has the 2nd-highest pressure rate in the NFL and are facing an offense that hasn’t lived up to the hype. They aren’t a priority for me, but I would definitely get some exposure if building more than a few lineups. Kicker Ka’imi Fairbairn has already made at least 3 field goals in 5 games this season.
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New York Jets Preview
I saw some ridiculous statistics on Twitter on Sunday from Dan Orlovsky. Teams that scored 20+ points, didn’t commit a turnover, and allowed fewer than 250 yards were 750-0 before the Jets lost to the Patriots in Week 8. THE STREAK IS OVER. This team has way too much talent to be 2-6, but they are a perfect example of why chemistry and morale are so important in a locker room. Aaron Rodgers squares off against a Texans team that has allowed the 10th-most fantasy points to quarterbacks this season. He’s viable given the nature of Showdown slates, but his lack of mobility limits my interest in him at MVP/CPT.
Davante Adams was a major addition to this receiving corps, so let’s look at the wideout usage in the 2 games he has played with the Jets:
Davante Adams: 93% route percentage, 25% target rate, 55% air yards share
Garrett Wilson: 94% route percentage, 18% target rate, 20% air yards share
Allen Lazard: % route percentage, 10% target rate, 23% air yards share
Tyler Conklin: % route percentage, 12% target rate, 10% air yards share
Lazard missed last week’s game and didn’t practice on Tuesday, so there’s a decent chance he will miss this game. If he’s out, Mike Williams will serve as the WR3. Regardless, most of the targets will funnel to Adams and Wilson. The latter has dominated the air-yards share (55%) and projects a little better. I expect Adams to be the lesser-owned of the two. It’s hard to imagine both having big games (more on this in the lineup construction segment). Conklin has only seen 8 targets in the last 2 games but has scored a touchdown in each.
Breece Hall played on 84% of the snaps in Weeks 6 and 7. Game-log watchers will see his 17 touches in Week 8 compared to 12 for Braelon Allen as a potential problem, but I’m not concerned in the slightest. Hall played on 74% of the snaps, while Allen played on 26% of the snaps. The latter ran hot with touches…that’s really all there is to it. The Texans have allowed the 3rd-fewest fantasy points to running backs this season but are below average in PFF’s grades against the run and EPA against the run. Continue to play Hall with confidence.
The Jets’ defense continues to play well and is putting pressure on opposing quarterbacks. With the Texans missing their top two wide receivers, the Jets could stack the box and dare C.J. Stroud to beat them through the air. New York’s kicker is not in the player pool, so we don’t have to worry about him.
Lineup Construction Thoughts
For starters, I will say I love both of the running backs in this game. Joe Mixon could realistically get to 30 touches if the Texans can control the time of possession, while Hall has played on over 80% of the snaps since the Jets fired Robert Salah. For value, we can lean on the cheap wideouts from Houston.
In our NFL DFS optimizer, LineupHQ, I plan to make a max-of-1 rule for Garrett Wilson and Davante Adams. I have a hard time seeing both putting up ceiling performances.
Texans vs. Jets DFS Salaries & Projections
| Player | Team | Pos | Proj | DK Sal | CPT Sal | DK/$ | FD Sal | FD/$ |
|---|---|---|---|---|---|---|---|---|
| Joe Mixon | HOU | RB | 21.66 | $11,000 | $16,500 | 1.97 | $16,500 | 1.31 |
| Breece Hall | NYJ | RB | 19.74 | $10,400 | $15,600 | 1.90 | $14,500 | 1.36 |
| Aaron Rodgers | NYJ | QB | 16.95 | $9,000 | $13,500 | 1.88 | $13,000 | 1.30 |
| Garrett Wilson | NYJ | WR | 16.35 | $9,600 | $14,400 | 1.70 | $13,500 | 1.21 |
| Davante Adams | NYJ | WR | 15.74 | $9,800 | $14,700 | 1.61 | $10,500 | 1.50 |
| C.J. Stroud | HOU | QB | 15.08 | $10,000 | $15,000 | 1.51 | $15,000 | 1.01 |
| Tank Dell | HOU | WR | 13.90 | $9,200 | $13,800 | 1.51 | $12,000 | 1.16 |
| Dalton Schultz | HOU | TE | 9.97 | $7,000 | $10,500 | 1.42 | $8,000 | 1.25 |
| Xavier Hutchinson | HOU | WR | 7.17 | $4,000 | $6,000 | 1.79 | $10,000 | 0.72 |
| Ka’imi Fairbairn | HOU | K | 6.90 | $5,200 | $7,800 | 1.33 | $9,000 | 0.77 |
| Texans | HOU | DST | 6.47 | $4,600 | $6,900 | 1.41 | $8,500 | 0.76 |
| Tyler Conklin | NYJ | TE | 6.31 | $5,600 | $8,400 | 1.13 | $7,500 | 0.84 |
| Jets | NYJ | DST | 6.30 | $3,400 | $5,100 | 1.85 | $8,500 | 0.74 |
| John Metchie | HOU | WR | 5.70 | $2,800 | $4,200 | 2.04 | $7,500 | 0.76 |
| Braelon Allen | NYJ | RB | 5.47 | $4,400 | $6,600 | 1.24 | $9,500 | 0.58 |
| Mike Williams | NYJ | WR | 4.98 | $3,600 | $5,400 | 1.38 | $7,000 | 0.71 |
| Cade Stover | HOU | TE | 3.82 | $1,600 | $2,400 | 2.39 | $5,500 | 0.69 |
| Dare Ogunbowale | HOU | RB | 3.39 | $2,000 | $3,000 | 1.70 | $6,500 | 0.52 |
| Robert Woods | HOU | WR | 2.60 | $3,000 | $4,500 | 0.87 | $7,000 | 0.37 |
| Jeremy Ruckert | NYJ | TE | 1.69 | $1,000 | $1,500 | 1.69 | $6,000 | 0.28 |
| Xavier Gipson | NYJ | WR | 1.51 | $1,200 | $1,800 | 1.26 | $6,000 | 0.25 |
Fantasy Sleepers
Dalton Schultz: $7,000 DK / $8,000 FD
Nico Collins is out. Stefon Diggs is out. The Jets have two elite outside cornerbacks in D.J. Reed and Sauce Gardner. This all lines up well for Schultz, who is getting overlooked thanks to a high price point on DraftKings. He’ll be fairly popular on FanDuel, but I’m still rolling with the sleeper description.
Texans vs. Jets Fantasy Pick’em
Season Fantasy Pick’em Record: 19-10
Tyler Conklin less than 24.5 receiving yards (x) – Sleeper Fantasy
Two losses in a row? Unacceptable.
Un. Ac. Cep. Ta. Ble.
Game-log watchers will think Conklin has been on a tear recently, but that’s only because he has scored a touchdown in back-to-back games. He’s only seen 8 targets in the 2 games since the Jets acquired Davante Adams and has been held under 24.5 receiving yards in 5 of 8 games this season. The matchup does not bode well for Conklin, as the Texans have allowed the fewest receptions (21) and receiving yards (168) to tight ends this season.
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Image Credit: Getty Images
Stats credit: Fantasy Points Data and Pro Football Focus