The NFL DFS Grind Down: Thursday Night Football - Vikings vs. Rams
In this article, we will take a look at the top DraftKings and FanDuel picks for the Vikings vs. Rams, go over potential NFL DFS sleepers, and even take a look at some picks we can target on Fantasy Pick’em sites like Sleeper Fantasy ahead of this Thursday Night Football matchup. As always, check the NFL weather page each week to see if this game (or any games) will be impacted by wind or rain.
NFL DFS Showdown DraftKings Picks and Sleepers – Vikings vs. Rams
This is typically the point of the season where we start to get some real clunkers on Thursday Night Football, but this one is shaping up to be a gem. The Vikings are 5-1 to start the season and have one of the best point differentials in the NFL. The Rams have struggled to stay competitive at times this season (2-4) but are always a fun team to see on the schedule from a DFS standpoint. Their offense is extremely concentrated, and they have one of the worst defenses in the league. This game features a 3-point spread and a 48.5-point total.
Key Injuries
T.J. Hockenson – Out
Jordan Whittington – Out
Minnesota Vikings Preview
All was right in the world when the Vikings were undefeated with Sam Darnold under center. After a single loss to a very good football team, we have trade rumors circulating around the two quarterbacks set to square off on Thursday night. While I would be interested in seeing Matthew Stafford in this Vikings offense, I’m not sure Minnesota should give up on Darnold after one bad performance. Well, I suppose it’s been two bad performances in a row. He’s still topped 20 fantasy points 3 times this season and has a get-right matchup against the Rams, who are 26th in EPA against the pass.
Let’s take a look at the Vikings wideouts so far this season:
Justin Jefferson: 89% route percentage, 31% target rate, 45% air yards share
Jordan Addison: 76% route percentage, 18% target rate, 33% air yards share
Jalen Nailor: 63% route percentage, 10% target rate, 15% air yards share
Johnny Mundt: 63% route percentage, 10% target rate, 4% air yards share
One of the key injuries to monitor leading up to lock is the availability of T.J. Hockenson. He’s been practicing and could be activated from the reserve/PUP list. If that happens, he’ll take over as the TE1 for the Vikings. He’ll potentially cut into the target shares of the other wideouts, but he’d likely be on some type of snap count in his first game of the season. Justin Jefferson has seen at least 8 targets in each of the last 4 games and has scored at least 15 fantasy points in every game this season. He deserves consideration at MVP and Captain. Jordan Addison and Jalen Nailor aren’t exactly cheap, so my interest in them hinges on the availability of Hockenson. The same goes for Johnny Mundt.
Update: T.J. Hockenson has been ruled out. This gives a boost to all of Minnesota’s wideouts.
Aaron Jones played through a hamstring injury last week against the Lions and wasn’t limited in the slightest. He played on 77% of the snaps and turned 17 touches into 116 yards from scrimmage and a touchdown. That was a very important divisional game, so I would expect the Vikings to ease up on his workload in this game, especially since it’s a short week. Even if he plays 60% of the snaps, we have to like his chances against a bad Rams rush defense (28th in EPA). Ty Chandler will likely need to score to find his way onto the optimal lineup, but that’s certainly possible given the matchup.
The Vikings have one of the best defenses in the NFL. They get pressure on the quarterback and are facing a team that is still shorthanded on offense. While I have the utmost respect for Matthew Stafford, I plan to be overweight on the Minnesota D/ST. Kicker Will Reichard is a perfect 10-for-10 on the season and is a strong value play.
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Los Angeles Rams Preview
The Rams have had some bad luck this season. Aaron Donald retired in the offseason, and they’ve spent most of the season without their top two receivers. Cooper Kupp is expected back this week, so maybe that will kick-start this offense. The problem for Matthew Stafford is that his offensive line stinks (31st in pass blocking) and that he’s facing one of the best defenses in the NFL. This is hard to believe, but Stafford has been held under 14 fantasy points in each of the last 4 games. He’s viable given the nature of Showdown slates, but I don’t plan to have any exposure to him at MVP or Captain.
With Kupp expected to return, there’s no point in looking at the usage for the Rams’ receivers this season. He’s going to return and command a massive target share. According to head coach Sean McVay, Kupp’s workload for the contest is “to be determined.” Do with that what you will. I still think he deserves consideration, especially in tournaments. Jordan Whittington was announced as active last week and then didn’t play. It was one of the many frustrating things to happen on the main slate in Week 7. He’s listed as questionable once again, so we’ll have to keep an eye on his status. Tutu Atwell, Demarcus Robinson, and Tyler Johnson are the other receivers on the roster. Colby Parkinson has seen 22 targets over the last 3 games and is cheap on both DraftKings ($4,400) and FanDuel ($8,000).
Update: Jordan Whittington has been ruled out.
Kyren Williams continues to have one of the best roles of any running back in the NFL. He’s played on 86% of the snaps this season and has seen at least 21 touches in each of the last 4 games. I’ll always chase volume at this position, but I will note that this is his toughest matchup to date. The Vikings are 4th in PFF’s grades against the run, 1st in rush EPA, and 8th in fantasy points allowed to running backs. I’ll continue to avoid Ronnie Rivers and Blake Corum, even though they are cheap on DraftKings.
The Rams D/ST picked up a touchdown and looked good against the Raiders last week. I’m still not trusting a defense that lacks talent and a pass rush, so I’ll take my chances with a fade against the Vikings. I’m also planning to be underweight on kicker Joshua Karty, as I could see the Vikings building a lead early.
Lineup Construction Thoughts
I have a hard time seeing the Rams winning this game. The Vikings have the better offense and the better defense. Now, Sean McVay is a very good coach, Cooper Kupp is expected to return, and this is a short week, but I plan to have a lot more exposure to the Vikings than the Rams. The playmakers are obvious targets, and I plan to be overweight on both the kicker and Minnesota’s D/ST.
Vikings vs. Rams DFS Salaries & Projections
| Player | Team | Pos | Proj | DK Sal | CPT Sal | DK/$ | FD Sal | FD/$ |
|---|---|---|---|---|---|---|---|---|
| Justin Jefferson | MIN | WR | 23.25 | $11,800 | $17,700 | 1.97 | $16,000 | 1.45 |
| Sam Darnold | MIN | QB | 21.03 | $9,400 | $14,100 | 2.24 | $14,000 | 1.50 |
| Cooper Kupp | LAR | WR | 19.16 | $11,000 | $16,500 | 1.74 | $12,000 | 1.60 |
| Aaron Jones | MIN | RB | 18.27 | $9,600 | $14,400 | 1.90 | $12,000 | 1.52 |
| Matthew Stafford | LAR | QB | 17.67 | $9,000 | $13,500 | 1.96 | $13,500 | 1.31 |
| Kyren Williams | LAR | RB | 16.39 | $11,200 | $16,800 | 1.46 | $15,500 | 1.06 |
| Jordan Addison | MIN | WR | 9.92 | $7,000 | $10,500 | 1.42 | $11,000 | 0.90 |
| Tutu Atwell | LAR | WR | 9.60 | $4,200 | $6,300 | 2.29 | $10,500 | 0.91 |
| Joshua Karty | LAR | K | 8.01 | $5,000 | $7,500 | 1.60 | $8,500 | 0.94 |
| Demarcus Robinson | LAR | WR | 8.00 | $3,000 | $4,500 | 2.67 | $9,000 | 0.89 |
| Rams | LAR | DST | 7.80 | $3,800 | $5,700 | 2.05 | $8,000 | 0.98 |
| Colby Parkinson | LAR | TE | 7.80 | $4,400 | $6,600 | 1.77 | $8,000 | 0.98 |
| Will Reichard | MIN | K | 7.50 | $5,400 | $8,100 | 1.39 | $8,500 | 0.88 |
| Jalen Nailor | MIN | WR | 6.13 | $6,200 | $9,300 | 0.99 | $7,500 | 0.82 |
| Ty Chandler | MIN | RB | 5.60 | $3,600 | $5,400 | 1.56 | $9,500 | 0.59 |
| Vikings | MIN | DST | 5.41 | $4,800 | $7,200 | 1.13 | $9,500 | 0.57 |
| Tyler Johnson | LAR | WR | 5.01 | $3,200 | $4,800 | 1.57 | $7,500 | 0.67 |
| Johnny Mundt | MIN | TE | 4.55 | $2,800 | $4,200 | 1.63 | $6,500 | 0.70 |
| Blake Corum | LAR | RB | 4.17 | $2,400 | $3,600 | 1.74 | $6,000 | 0.70 |
| Jordan Whittington | LAR | WR | 4.17 | $4,000 | $6,000 | 1.04 | $10,000 | 0.42 |
| Ronnie Rivers | LAR | RB | 3.12 | $1,400 | $2,100 | 2.23 | $6,000 | 0.52 |
| Brandon Powell | MIN | WR | 2.90 | $1,200 | $1,800 | 2.42 | $7,000 | 0.41 |
| Josh Oliver | MIN | TE | 2.06 | $1,800 | $2,700 | 1.14 | $6,500 | 0.32 |
| Davis Allen | LAR | TE | 1.31 | $200 | $300 | 6.55 | $5,000 | 0.26 |
| C.J. Ham | MIN | RB | 1.00 | $400 | $600 | 2.50 | $5,500 | 0.18 |
Fantasy Sleepers
Colby Parkinson: $4,400 DK / $8,000 FD
We’ll see how projected ownership shakes out, but tight ends rarely garner a bunch of ownership on Showdown slates. Parkinson only saw 2 targets last week, and Cooper Kupp is expected to return to the lineup. All of this should lead to very mediocre ownership, at least that’s my hope. Even with last week’s game included, Parkinson has seen 22 targets over the last 3 games. I expect the Rams to be trailing in this one, and the Vikings are 19th in fantasy points allowed to tight ends.
Vikings vs. Rams Fantasy Pick’em
Season Fantasy Pick’em Record: 18-8
Will Reichard more than 1.5 field goals made (1.63x) – Sleeper Fantasy
If you’ve been reading these Grind Down articles, you know I love my kicker props. I tend to target kickers when they are on a team with a good offense, when I expect the team to move the ball with ease, and when they are favored. All three of those check out this week for the Vikings. Reichard has yet to miss a field goal this season (12-for-12).
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Image Credit: Getty Images
Stats credit: Fantasy Points Data and Pro Football Focus