The NFL DFS Grind Down: Vikings vs. Rams
In this article, we will take a look at the top DraftKings and FanDuel picks for the Vikings vs. Rams, go over potential NFL DFS sleepers, and even take a look at some picks we can target on Fantasy Pick’em sites like Sleeper Fantasy ahead of this Monday Night Football matchup. As always, you can visit our NFL lineup optimizer, LineupHQ, to help you with your lineup-building process.
NFL DFS Showdown DraftKings Picks and Sleepers — Vikings vs. Rams
I wouldn’t say we had the best weekend of football, but at least the WAS/TB game was fun to watch. Let’s hope the MIN/LAR game lives up to the hype. The Vikings went from having a chance at the bye in the first round to playing on the road against a very capable team after losing to the Lions in the season finale. The Rams won 9 of their last 12 games in the regular season to claim the NFC West. Tonight’s game should feature plenty of fireworks. It features a 2.5-point spread and a 47.5-point total.
Key Injuries
Blake Corum – Out
Minnesota Vikings Preview
Sam Darnold has been hit or miss all season. He’s topped 20 fantasy points in 10 games but has been held under 10 fantasy points in 3 games. He’s coming off one of his worst outings of the season, but it was on the road against a tough Lions defense. Tonight he squares off against the Rams, who are 28th in EPA against the pass, 25th in pressure rate, and 26th in fantasy points allowed per game to quarterbacks. It’s a great spot for Darnold and his pass catchers, especially with how much is on the line. He’s firmly in play at the multiplier positions, but you can’t play all of the studs here. Sacrifices must be made.
Let’s take a look at the wideout usage for the Vikings over the last 4 games of the regular season:
Justin Jefferson: 28% target share, 38% air yards share, 38% first-read rate
Jordan Addison: 18% target share, 29% air yards share, 18% first-read rate
Jalen Nailor: 8% target share, 12% air yards share, 10% first-read rate
T.J. Hockenson: 16% target share, 21% air yards share, 16% first-read rate
While Jordan Addison is an elite WR2 who is capable of breaking any slate, he’s still well behind Justin Jefferson in terms of usage. Over the last 4 games of the regular season, Jefferson leads the team by a mile in terms of target share, air yards share, and first-read rate. While I would argue that Jefferson has a higher floor, he and Addison have both topped 30 fantasy points in 2 games so far this season. Their ceilings are comparable. Jalen Nailor has 9 targets and a touchdown over the last 2 games and is cheap on both FanDuel and DraftKings. My favorite point-per-dollar wideout on the Vikings is T.J. Hockenson, who is facing a defense that has allowed the 3rd-most fantasy points to tight ends this season.
Aaron Jones has had a nice season for the Vikings. He’s extremely reliable, both in actual football games and in DFS. However, he hasn’t flashed much of a ceiling. He’s only topped 20 fantasy points in 3 games all season and has been held under that mark in each of the last 6 games. The way I see it, he’s a better cash game target than a tournament target. Given the number of points expected to be scored in this one, a player at his price point will need 25+ fantasy points to end up on the optimal lineup. It’s certainly feasible, but it doesn’t seem likely. This is a mediocre matchup on paper, and Cam Akers has looked surprisingly good in the second half of the season.
The Vikings blitz more than any team in the NFL, so they naturally create a lot of turnovers. While I’m not prioritizing their defense on this Showdown slate, there’s certainly a path for them to find their way into the optimal lineup with a touchdown. Kicker Will Reichard is a solid value play in all formats.
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Los Angeles Rams Preview
Matthew Stafford is still an excellent quarterback when it comes to real-life football, but he has not been a good quarterback for fantasy football. He has been held under 10 fantasy points in 3 straight games and in 7 of 16 games during the regular season. His low floor makes him my favorite fade of the expensive players on this slate. You should still get exposure to him if you are building multiple lineups, but he’s not an auto-click like many quarterbacks we have on Showdown slates. It’s not an easy matchup, as the Vikings are constantly blitzing and ranked 2nd in EPA against the pass.
Let’s take a look at the wideout usage for the Vikings over the last 4 meaningful games of the regular season:
Puka Nacua: 39% target share, 37% air yards share, 52% first-read rate
Cooper Kupp: 16% target share, 28% air yards share, 19% first-read rate
Demarcus Robinson: 4% target share, 10% air yards share, 6% first-read rate
Tyler Higbee: 10% target share, 10% air yards share, 13% first-read rate
We like to think of Puka Nacua and Cooper Kupp as 1A and 1B in this offense, but it really hasn’t been the case this season. Over the last 4 games, Nacua has more than twice as many targets and has seen a whopping 52% air yards share. He runs a mix of short and deep routes, so I expect him to get peppered with targets in this one. The Vikings are elite against the run but have allowed more fantasy points to wide receivers than any other team in the league. The two are priced close enough on DraftKings that I will be taking a big stand on Nacua. The $4,000 difference on FanDuel does make Kupp more viable over there.
Even though he has only seen a 4% target share over the last 4 games, Demarcus Robinson has run a route on 69% of dropbacks during that stretch. He’s my preferred value wide receiver from the Rams, as Tutu Atwell only ran a route on 32% of dropbacks during that stretch. Tyler Higbee is only running a route on about one-fourth of dropbacks, but he’s been targeted at a healthy rate (10%) since returning from injury. He didn’t play in Week 18, and this is the playoffs, so perhaps he’ll see an uptick in route participation tonight. He projects as one of the top value plays on the board.
Blake Corum has been ruled out of this week’s game, which means Kyren Williams will be the 1st, 2nd, and 3rd option in this backfield. Williams led all running backs in snap share during the regular season, so we can expect a big workload from him in this playoff game. Ronnie Rivers will serve as his backup, but I’m not expecting him to play more than a handful of snaps. Williams has a knack for finding the end zone, but I do worry about the matchup and his pass-game involvement. The Vikings are 5th in PFF’s grades against the run and 1st in EPA against the run. Over the last 8 games, Williams has seen a total of only 9 targets.
The Rams don’t put much pressure on the quarterback and aren’t particularly stout against the run or the pass. I suppose you can make the case that Sam Darnold is mistake-prone, but I won’t be targeting the Rams D/ST in this one. I could see the Rams struggling to score in the red zone, but kicker Joshua Karty is more of a secondary option on this slate.
Lineup Construction Thoughts
This slate is all about prioritizing the superstars. That’s the first step you should take before you start to build your lineups. Personally, I rank them in the following order in terms of lineup priority: Puka Nacua, Justin Jefferson, Sam Darnold, Kyren Williams, Aaron Jones, and then Matthew Stafford. I only plan to build a few lineups, so I am going to take my chances with a fade of both defenses. I do have interest in kicker Will Reichard in all formats. My favorite sneaky CPT on DraftKings is T.J. Hockenson.
Vikings vs. Rams DFS Salaries & Projections
| Player | Team | Pos | Proj | DK Sal | CPT Sal | DK/$ | FD Sal | FD/$ |
|---|---|---|---|---|---|---|---|---|
| Puka Nacua | LAR | WR | 27.18 | $10,600 | $15,900 | 2.56 | $15,000 | 1.81 |
| Justin Jefferson | MIN | WR | 22.24 | $11,000 | $16,500 | 2.02 | $15,500 | 1.43 |
| Sam Darnold | MIN | QB | 21.10 | $9,600 | $14,400 | 2.20 | $14,000 | 1.51 |
| Kyren Williams | LAR | RB | 20.55 | $10,400 | $15,600 | 1.98 | $14,500 | 1.42 |
| Matthew Stafford | LAR | QB | 19.36 | $9,000 | $13,500 | 2.15 | $12,500 | 1.55 |
| Aaron Jones | MIN | RB | 18.48 | $8,000 | $12,000 | 2.31 | $12,000 | 1.54 |
| Cooper Kupp | LAR | WR | 14.45 | $9,400 | $14,100 | 1.54 | $11,000 | 1.31 |
| Jordan Addison | MIN | WR | 13.88 | $7,000 | $10,500 | 1.98 | $10,000 | 1.39 |
| T.J. Hockenson | MIN | TE | 11.16 | $5,600 | $8,400 | 1.99 | $9,500 | 1.17 |
| Joshua Karty | LAR | K | 7.75 | $4,800 | $7,200 | 1.61 | $9,000 | 0.86 |
| Will Reichard | MIN | K | 7.75 | $5,000 | $7,500 | 1.55 | $9,000 | 0.86 |
| Rams | LAR | DST | 6.86 | $3,800 | $5,700 | 1.81 | $8,500 | 0.81 |
| Tyler Higbee | LAR | TE | 6.85 | $3,000 | $4,500 | 2.28 | $8,500 | 0.81 |
| Vikings | MIN | DST | 6.16 | $4,000 | $6,000 | 1.54 | $9,500 | 0.65 |
| Demarcus Robinson | LAR | WR | 5.23 | $4,200 | $6,300 | 1.25 | $8,000 | 0.65 |
| Jalen Nailor | MIN | WR | 4.69 | $3,600 | $5,400 | 1.30 | $8,000 | 0.59 |
| Tutu Atwell | LAR | WR | 4.63 | $3,400 | $5,100 | 1.36 | $7,500 | 0.62 |
| Cam Akers | MIN | RB | 4.27 | $4,400 | $6,600 | 0.97 | $7,500 | 0.57 |
| Josh Oliver | MIN | TE | 2.35 | $1,600 | $2,400 | 1.47 | $7,000 | 0.34 |
| Colby Parkinson | LAR | TE | 1.90 | $1,200 | $1,800 | 1.58 | $6,500 | 0.29 |
| Ronnie Rivers | LAR | RB | 1.59 | $2,000 | $3,000 | 0.80 | $7,000 | 0.23 |
Fantasy Sleepers
Will Reichard $5,000 DK / $9,000 FD
I know it doesn’t feel great clicking on a kicker in Showdown when the game features a high total, but I like the spot for Reichard. He’s been one of the most productive kickers in the league this season, and the Vikings should be able to move the ball against the Rams. We don’t have to worry about the weather with this game being in Los Angeles. I could see him making 3+ field goals and sneaking his way into the optimal lineup.
Vikings vs. Rams Fantasy Pick’em
Season Fantasy Pick’em Record: 27-26
T.J. Hockenson More Than 43.5 receiving yards (1.67x) – Sleeper Fantasy
During the regular season, the Rams allowed the 2nd-most receptions and the 4th-most receiving yards to tight ends. Over the last 4 games, he’s seen a 16% target share and a 21% air yards share. I expect him to see 6-8 targets in this one, and I like his chances of eclipsing 43.5 receiving yards.
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Image Credit: Getty Images
Stats credit: Fantasy Points Data and ProFootballFocus