NFL DFS Pass Game Matchups Report: Week 12
Recent research into predicting fantasy production shows that defense matters in NFL DFS less than we once thought. However, there is still value on the extremes and we can still benefit from understanding the passing game matchups. When we find weakness, we can still attack on DraftKings, FanDuel, and Yahoo!. Using GridIronIQ, we can identify teams that present upside in terms of fantasy point production.
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In combination with projections and projected ownership, we can still gain insight using passing game matchups to help us make decisions for our daily fantasy football contests. Let’s examine some top matchups for this upcoming slate of games.
Week 12 NFL DFS Pass Game Matchups Report
Robby Anderson
Opponent: Minnesota Vikings
Pass DVOA (Rank): 12th
Expected Points Added (Rank): 8th
Pass Yards Allowed (Rank): 9th
Fpts Allowed to WR (Rank): 4th
I gotta hand it to the Vikings, as they somehow rank 12th in Pass Defense DVOA while also allowing the fourth most fantasy points to opposing wide receivers, the ninth most passing yards, and the eighth highest Expected Points Added on passing plays.
A lot of the fantasy goodness they have allowed to wide receivers this season can be heavily attributed to the fact that they have allowed 17 receiving to the position, a number surpassed only by the 19 the Cowboys have allowed. I am sure the math says that they are due some positive regression in that regard. But at some point you have to, ya know, do something about it. Last week wasn’t exactly a great indicator that they have things fixed. While they may have given up ‘only’ one receiving touchdown to a wide receiver in that game (Lamb), they also allowed one to a running back (Zeke) and one to a tight end (Schultz).
As for Anderson, he has amassed a 27.6% market share of targets on this Panthers team since Week 4, which easily outpaces DJ Moore (22%). He also has the slight edge during that span in market share of air yards (39.1% to 36.3%). I think both of them make great options in Week 12 considering the matchup, but I will give the slight edge to Anderson (who is also cheaper across the industry, significantly so on FanDuel).
DeVante Parker
Opponent: New York Jets
Pass DVOA (Rank): 32nd
Expected Points Added (Rank): 1st
Pass Yards Allowed (Rank): 3rd
Fpts Allowed to WR (Rank): 6th
While the Vikings may rank 12th in Pass Defense DVOA, these here Jets rank absolutely dead last. And to add icing on that awful-tasting cake, they also allow the highest Pass Success Rate (52.38%) and most Expected Points Added on passing plays.
With Preston Williams out the past two weeks (he is out this week too, for the record), Parker has led the team in market share of targets (26.2%). Unfortunately, Parker has turned those 16 targets the past two games into just eight receptions for 92 yards and one touchdown. At this point, his fantasy prospects are probably brighter with Ryan Fitzpatrick under center, but the Dolphins seem content on moving forward with Tua Tagovailoa (even though Fitz replaced him in the fourth quarter last week due to performance).
The route to a blow-up game out of Parker probably calls for a wonky game-script that sees the Jets get out to an early lead. While I don’t think any of us expect that to happen, I’ve certainly seen crazier things happen. Otherwise, Parker is going to need to see a big spike in efficiency (and find his way into the end zone again) if he is going to drop a ceiling game this weekend. Luckily the matchup should help facilitate that, and the price tags across the industry are still relatively affordable too.
Michael Pittman
Opponent: Tennessee Titans
Pass DVOA (Rank): 25th
Expected Points Added (Rank): 9th
Pass Yards Allowed (Rank): 7th
Fpts Allowed to WR (Rank): 5th
The Titans continue to be one of the most favorable matchups for opposing wide receivers. For whatever reason, I don’t think that reality has entirely sunk in across the fantasy football community. It’s easy to look at their recent stretch of games and think they have made improvements. But one of those games was against the Ravens (Week 11), who are one of the worst passing teams in the league. Another game was against the Bears (Week 9), who have been one of the worst passing teams in the league for what seems like the entire 21st century.
In between those two games was a Week 10 matchup against these Colts, a game in which Pittman caught seven of his eight targets for 101 yards. Ever since he came off of the IR in Week 8, he has led these Colts wide receivers in snap rate (77%) and has led the team in targets in two of the four games.
With how much Rivers spreads the ball around, it always feels like a hit-or-miss proposition rostering a Colts pass-catcher. But here’s the thing. If you happen to catch the game where Pittman sees a boatload of targets (like Week 10 against the Titans) AND finds the end zone (like Week 11 against the Packers), he is going to absolutely demolish these puny little price tags ($5,700 on FanDuel; $5,000 on DraftKings).
Hopefully we see a similar outing from Pittman that we saw against this team a few weeks ago. Only this time, add on a touchdown please!